The Americans were underrepresented this year in the Nobel Prizes! Americans won 0 of 3 for Medicine, 1 of 3 for Physics, 3 of 3 for Chemistry, 0 of 1 for Literature, 0 of 1 for Peace, and 1 of 1 for Economics. That's a total of 5 Nobel Prizes, and answer B for question 8 on the prognostication quiz. Seven people correctly predicted the poor showing for the Americans: Pete, Eric, Megan, Rob, Ekrem, Tina, and Beth Z.
That answer really tightens the race for best prognosticator. Based on my guesses for which answers have what probability, it looks like a three-way race between Matthew B., Pete, and Eric.
For question 9, here are the latest odds for winning the World Series (from bookmaker.com):
38% A. Boston Red Sox
24% E. Tampa Bay Rays
38% F. Philadelphia Phillies or Los Angeles Dodgers
For question 10, here are the latest odds on the Presidential election (from fivethirtyeight.com):
94% B. Barack Obama
06% F. John McCain
For question 11, we're through the worst part of hurricane season and sitting right now on 6 hurricanes (answer B), but two more storms are brewing right now, and I'm betting we have one or two more before the season is out. These are my guesses:
35% B. 5-6 hurricanes
55% C. 7-8 hurricanes
10% D. 9-11 hurricanes
For question 12, the only extreme (!) pessimist who predicted that the Dow might end the year below 12,000 was Katie. Five people did think the Dow would lose some ground to end the year between 12,000 and 13,000, but that seems remote to me:
95% A. 12,000 or under
05% B. 12,000 to 13,000
Given those numbers, Matthew B. has the best odds to get to a score of six (which is the maximum score at this point) and win outright: he needs Boston and Obama to win and 7-8 hurricanes.
Pete has the next best chance to win outright with a six score: he needs Tampa Bay and Obama to win as well as 7-8 hurricanes.
Eric is slightly less likely to win outright with six: he needs Tampa Bay, Obama, and 9-11 hurricanes.
The top three (Matthew B., Pete, and Eric) also have a number of scenarios where they win (or tie for the win) with just five correct answers.
Others who have a chance at winning:
Grant can win outright with 5 with Philadelphia/Los Angeles, McCain, 9-11 hurricanes, and Dow 12,000 to 13,000. He would tie for the win with 5 if Obama won but the rest happened according to his guesses. He would win the tie-break in this last case.
Megan can actually win alone with six points, but only in the rather unlikely case of Tampa Bay, McCain, 7-8 hurricanes, and the Dow between 12,000 and 13,000. She can also tie for the win with 5 correct answers if one of those does not come through. Megan beats anyone in the tie-break.
Beth W. can also win alone with six points, but also in an unlikely case: Boston, McCain, 5-6 hurricanes, and the Dow between 12,000 and 13,000. She can tie someone with 5, but would lose the tie-break.
Sandy can get to six points, but she requires Boston, McCain, and 7-8 hurricanes. If that happens, she would also only tie Matthew B. for the top spot and would lose the tie-break to him.
Chris can tie for the win with 5 correct answers with Boston, McCain, and 9-11 hurricanes, but he would lose the tie-break.
I'll give an update in a few weeks when the World Series is done!
That answer really tightens the race for best prognosticator. Based on my guesses for which answers have what probability, it looks like a three-way race between Matthew B., Pete, and Eric.
For question 9, here are the latest odds for winning the World Series (from bookmaker.com):
38% A. Boston Red Sox
24% E. Tampa Bay Rays
38% F. Philadelphia Phillies or Los Angeles Dodgers
For question 10, here are the latest odds on the Presidential election (from fivethirtyeight.com):
94% B. Barack Obama
06% F. John McCain
For question 11, we're through the worst part of hurricane season and sitting right now on 6 hurricanes (answer B), but two more storms are brewing right now, and I'm betting we have one or two more before the season is out. These are my guesses:
35% B. 5-6 hurricanes
55% C. 7-8 hurricanes
10% D. 9-11 hurricanes
For question 12, the only extreme (!) pessimist who predicted that the Dow might end the year below 12,000 was Katie. Five people did think the Dow would lose some ground to end the year between 12,000 and 13,000, but that seems remote to me:
95% A. 12,000 or under
05% B. 12,000 to 13,000
Given those numbers, Matthew B. has the best odds to get to a score of six (which is the maximum score at this point) and win outright: he needs Boston and Obama to win and 7-8 hurricanes.
Pete has the next best chance to win outright with a six score: he needs Tampa Bay and Obama to win as well as 7-8 hurricanes.
Eric is slightly less likely to win outright with six: he needs Tampa Bay, Obama, and 9-11 hurricanes.
The top three (Matthew B., Pete, and Eric) also have a number of scenarios where they win (or tie for the win) with just five correct answers.
Others who have a chance at winning:
Grant can win outright with 5 with Philadelphia/Los Angeles, McCain, 9-11 hurricanes, and Dow 12,000 to 13,000. He would tie for the win with 5 if Obama won but the rest happened according to his guesses. He would win the tie-break in this last case.
Megan can actually win alone with six points, but only in the rather unlikely case of Tampa Bay, McCain, 7-8 hurricanes, and the Dow between 12,000 and 13,000. She can also tie for the win with 5 correct answers if one of those does not come through. Megan beats anyone in the tie-break.
Beth W. can also win alone with six points, but also in an unlikely case: Boston, McCain, 5-6 hurricanes, and the Dow between 12,000 and 13,000. She can tie someone with 5, but would lose the tie-break.
Sandy can get to six points, but she requires Boston, McCain, and 7-8 hurricanes. If that happens, she would also only tie Matthew B. for the top spot and would lose the tie-break to him.
Chris can tie for the win with 5 correct answers with Boston, McCain, and 9-11 hurricanes, but he would lose the tie-break.
I'll give an update in a few weeks when the World Series is done!
I'm guessing the odds for the Sox winning the World Series have gone down a bit after today's game.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be pretty mad if stupid Manny ends up with a World Series ring this year. :P
Yes, the odds for the Sox are down to 24%, with the Rays bumping up to 35%. I bet Lester pulls it together and pitches a 2-hit shutout in game 7. And it looks bad for Manny, down 3-1 in the NLCS.
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