New Year Prognostication

For a New Year’s party, I made a prognostication quiz, with prizes to be awarded at next year’s New Year’s party. I want to open it up to everyone, though! If you want to play, send your answers to jmandresen at gmail.

1. January
Every year The Economist creates an index of democracy for each of the 167 sovereign nations on the globe. The five least free countries are listed below, with their democracy index number from 2006. They all beat out Turkmenistan (sixth from the bottom with an index of 1.83), Libya (seventh from the bottom with an index of 1.84), and Uzbekistan (eighth from the bottom with an index of 1.85). (Sweden is at the top with an index of 9.88. The U.S. is 17th with 8.22.)

Which will rise from the bottom of the 2007 Democracy Index?
a. Myanmar (Burma) 1.77
b. Togo 1.75
c. Chad 1.65
d. Central African Republic 1.61
e. North Korea 1.03
f. none of the above: all will be at the bottom again

2. Early February
The New England Patriots are the strong favorites to win the Super Bowl, but the playoffs can be unpredictable.

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. New England Patriots, by more than 13 points
b. New England Patriots, by 13 or fewer points
c. Dallas Cowboys
d. Indianapolis Colts
e. Pittsburgh Steelers
f. none of the above: some other team will win

3. Late February
Atonement led the Golden Globe nominations race with seven total, and all five of the choices below are nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Drama. Other strong contenders for the Academy Award for Best Picture include Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Into the Wild, Charlie Wilson’s War, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Gone Baby Gone, Juno, The Kite Runner, and Ratatouille.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
a. American Gangster
b. Atonement
c. Michael Clayton
d. No Country for Old Men
e. There Will Be Blood
f. none of the above: some other film will win

4. April
Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named.

Which newspaper will be named in the most Pulitzer Prizes?
a. The Wall Street Journal
b. The New York Times
c. The Los Angeles Times
d. The Washington Post
e. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune
f. another paper will be named the most times

5. Early June
No team is clearly dominating the National Hockey League yet as the season gets underway.

What team will win the Stanley Cup?
a. Anaheim Ducks
b. Ottawa Senators
c. Detroit Redwings
d. San Jose Sharks
e. another Eastern Conference team
f. another Western Conference team

6. Late June
The Boston Celtics have basketball’s best record right now, though the season is young.

What team will win the NBA Championship?
a. Boston Celtics
b. San Antonio Spurs
c. Phoenix Suns
d. Dallas Mavericks
e. Detroit Pistons
f. none of the above: another team will win

7. August
The United States has averaged 38 gold medals at the last five Summer Olympics. (The US won 83 gold medals in the 1984 Summer Olympics, but the Russian boycott may have had something to do with that.)

How many gold medals will the US win in the Summer Olympics?
a. fewer than 34
b. 34-36
c. 37-38
d. 39-40
e. 40-42
f. more than 42

8. Early October
The Nobel Committee awards prizes in five categories: Physics, Chemistry, Medicine or Physiology, Literature, and Peace. Up to three people may share in each prize, though Literature and Peace are typically given to single individuals. Americans are overrepresented overall due to the strength of scientific research in the U.S. According to the Nobel web site, Americans claimed six of the 12 prizes this year, six of the 9 prizes last year, six of the 13 prizes two years ago, and seven of the 12 prizes three years ago.

How many Americans will win Nobel Prizes?
a. 4 or fewer
b. 5
c. 6
d. 7
e. 8
f. 9 or more

9. Late October
Boston is the early favorite to repeat as World Series Champion at 7-to-2 odds against (i.e. bet $2 and you get your bet back plus $7 if the Red Sox win the World Series). The Yankees and Tigers are currently listed at 5-to-1, and the Angels are back at 10-to-1.

Who will win the World Series?
a. Boston Red Sox
b. New York Yankees
c. Detroit Tigers
d. Los Angeles Angels
e. another American League team
f. another National League team

10. Early November

Who will win the United States Presidential election?
a. Hillary Clinton
b. Barack Obama
c. Rudolph Giuliani
d. Mitt Romney
e. another Democrat
f. another Republican

11. Late November
Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were six hurricanes in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Some climate modelers are predicting a sharp increase in the number of hurricanes this year, while global warming naysayers are predicting regression toward the recent average (7.5 per year over the last 12 years).

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-11
e. 12-15
f. 16 or more

12. December
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 13,500. Some pundits feel the stock market is grossly overvalued and due for a further 10% correction (or more). Others feel the worst of the housing slump and credit mess is over and predict a strong year ahead.

What will be the year-end close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
a. 12,000 or under
b. between 12,000 and 13,000
c. between 13,000 and 13,500
d. between 13,500 and 14,000
e. between 14,000 and 14,500
f. greater than 14,500

For a tie-breaker, indicate the precise closing of the index.