2016 PROGNOSTICATION QUIZ

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 16, 2016.
Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter!

1. Freedom (January)

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many countries it calculates to be free, partly free, or not free. The 2015 report calculated that 89 of the world’s 195 nations were free in 2014. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2014? Note: the nine worst free countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Jamaica, Lesotho, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best partly free countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Ecuador, Georgia, Indonesia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tanzania, and Ukraine. The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (4), 87 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 88 total
c. no change (6), 89 total
d. plus one (4), 90 total
e. plus two or three (3), 91 - 92 total
f. plus four or more (3), 93 or more total

2. Groundhog (February 2)

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow (which he did last year), it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.

What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (16)
b. No shadow (6)

3. Football (February 7)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all this year or will an upstart prevail? Recent history has seen a proliferation of successful upstarts. In the NFL playoffs between 1995 to 2004, #1 seeds won 6 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won 2. In the NFL playoffs from 2005 to 2014, #1 seeds won only 2 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won an astonishing 6. What will happen this year? Regular season wins and losses are indicated in parentheses.

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (12-4 Denver Broncos)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (15-1 Carolina Panthers)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (12-4 New England Patriots)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (13-3 Arizona Cardinals)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

4. Film (February 28)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year? These are the five nominees for the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, which usually contains the best picture for the Academy, as well (although not last year, when Birdman won out over Boyhood et al.)

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?

a. Carol
b. Mad Max: Fury Road
c. The Revenant
d. Room
e. Spotlight
f. none of the above: some other film will win

5. Writing (April 18)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 16 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (5)
b. The New York Times (7)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (5)
e. another news organization will be named the most times (0)

6. Republicans (July 18)

Right now, Donald Trump leads in the current preference polls, but Marco Rubio is the favorite to win in the end on some betting platforms. Who will win out at the Republican National Convention this year in Cleveland, Ohio?

Who will win the Republican nomination?
a. Marco Rubio
b. Donald Trump
c. Ted Cruz
d. Jeb Bush
e. Chris Christie
f. Ben Carson
g. John Kasich
h. Mike Huckabee
i. Carly Fiorina
j. Rand Paul
k. a dark horse (anyone else)

7. Democrats (July 25)

Right now, Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead in the polls, betting markets, and endorsement count. That said, she also had a commanding lead (though not quite this large) around this time eight years ago. Who will win out at the Democratic National Convention this year in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania?

Who will win the Democratic nomination?
a. Hillary Clinton
b. Bernie Sanders
c. Martin O'Malley
d. a dark horse (anyone else)

8. Olympics (August 21)

The 30th summer Olympic games take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil this year. China won the most medals for the first time ever in 2008, but that may have been due in part to its home-field advantage in Beijing. All other summer Olympics since 1936, the top spot has always gone to either the United States or Russia/U.S.S.R. The number of medals won at the 2012 games in London, England is indicated.

Who will win the most medals?
a. United States (104)
b. China (88)
c. Russia (82)
d. Any other country

9. Nobels (October)

There are six Nobel Prizes: Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, Peace, and Economic Sciences. They can each be awarded to as many as three people, so it is pretty special when a Nobel Prize is given to a single individual (with the exception of the Literature Prize, which is usually awarded to a single individual). How often will that happen this year? (The total number of times each has happened this millennium is indicated.)

How many Nobel prizes will be awarded to a single individual?
a. One (4)
b. Two (9)
c. Three (3)
d. Zero, Four, Five, or Six (0)

10. POTUS (November)

The steadily improving economy seems to bode well for the incumbent Democrats, while the Republicans seem to be having trouble finding a charismatic candidate. Will the Democrats have an easy win, or will those scrappy Republicans regroup and consolidate?

What will become President and Vice President of the United States?
a. The Republican ticket
b. The Democratic ticket
c. An Independent ticket

11. Storms (November 30)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were four hurricanes in 2016, six in 2014, a paltry two in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, and an all-time record fifteen in 2005.
  
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more

12. Stocks (December 30)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 17,500. How will stocks do in this election year?

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 16,000
b. 16,000 to 16,750
c. 16,750 to 17,500
d. 17,500 to 18,250
e. 18,250 to 19,000
f. greater than 19,000

13-15. Death (December 31)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2016? You get THREE guesses on this one. Amazingly, A through Y were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it. Z is the only fresh nonagenarian meat this year. (The 2016 birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 99-year-old has a 74% chance of seeing 2016. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2016?
a. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (100)
b. Kirk Douglas, Hollywood Legend (100)
c. Zsa Zsa Gabor, Actress and Amputee (99)
d. I. M. Pei, MIT-trained Architect (99)
e. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (98)
f. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (98)
g. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (97)
h. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (96)
i. John Paul Stevens, former US Supreme Court Justice (96)
j. George Shultz, former US Secretary of State (96)
k. Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth (95)
l. Nancy Reagan, former US First Lady (95)
m. John Glenn, former Astronaut and US Senator (95)
n. Luis Echeverría Álvarez, former President of Mexico (94)
o. Betty White, Comedic Actress (94)
p. Doris Day, Movie Icon (94)
q. Chuck Yeager, Test Pilot (93)
r. Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State (93)
s. Bob Dole, former US Senator (93)
t. Shimon Peres, former Israeli Prime Minister (93)
u. Bob Barker, Price is Right Host (93)
v. Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe (92)
w. George Bush, former US President (92)
x. Jimmy Carter, former US President (92)
y. Lee Iacocca, automobile executive (92)
z. Barbara Bush, former US First Lady (91)

Tie-Breaker

Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Optional: Betting Pool

The betting pool will continue into its second year. If you would like to put your money where your mouth is, send me either $10 or $50. When the quiz is done, I will compare scores for all bettors and give 70% of their minimum $10 to the highest score and 30% to the second highest score. Then I will compare everyone who contributed $50 and split all their remaining entry money (i.e. $40 each) and give 70% to the highest score and 30% to the second highest score. ALL money collected will be disbursed to Quiz winners. Your humble Quizmaster will refrain from entering the pool in order to remain disinterested. All judgments by said Quizmaster are final. You don't even have to pay in advance! Just indicate what level of the betting pool you would like to participate in and then sometime in 2016 get me payment by cash, check, Paypal, or barter.