J. Michael Andresen

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 12, 2013 . Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com. Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter. The winner receives a deluxe gift bag. Happy guessing! 1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2012 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2011. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2012? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. Note: the ten worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Antigua and Barbuda, Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best "partly free" countries (with the hi

Ravi Shankar, perhaps the best-known contemporary Indian musician , passed away yesterday. This means that (s) Ravi Shankar is now a correct answer to Question 13 - 15 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz . This was very surprising to everyone in the Prognostication Quiz, since nearly everyone expected him to survive another three weeks to see 2013. Only one person thought that Shankar might pass on this year: The sitar hater: Ekrem I also get the feeling that Ekrem did not really want to pick Shankar. Rather, he needed an answer S near the end to get his prizewinning entry "BAD ABBA FADED FAST" to come out correctly. Although this small victory pulls Ekrem up into the tie for second place, he still has nearly no chance of winning overall. For his tie-break, he predicted that the Dow will fall 99.1% from its current position to close the year at 116. Even if we fall off the fiscal cliff and break our fical neck, I really don't see that happening. The summary from t

9. POTUS (November) Who will be elected President of the United States? a. Barack Obama b. The Republican Nominee c. a dark horse (anyone else) After hundreds of millions of dollars spent, Barack Obama won a convincing victory in the U.S. Presidential Election earlier this month. Eighty percent of Quiz entrants picked him to win reeelection. Those who picked the underdog had very reasonable odds for their bets (very few thought that Obama's actual chances were that high, even at the very end), but they lost anyway. The Obamaniacs: Keila Megan Cameron Kevin Grant Marcus Ellen Stacey Gloria Todd Sarah M. Peter B. Ryan Nadir Russell Sarah T. Zoe Janet Jason Cherie Michael Ben Leanne Pete C. Ekrem Chris C. Rachel Collette Katie Jeff Adrian Beth Eric Jan Craig Hannah Liz Dave Ted Valerie Paul 10. Storms (November) Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, t

8. Peace (October) For the past 22 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 22 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.) What word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize? a. “Democracy” (5) b. “Rights” (7) c. Any specific geographical region (6) d. “International” (5) e. “Peaceful” (6) f. None of the above (4) And the award goes to . . . The European Union. The 2012 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the EU "for over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe". The European Union is a teeming mass of people slowly integrating since 1951. That many people over that much time can get a lot of things done, so it's no surprise that The Quiz

Question 6. Olympics Who will win the most gold medals? a. China (51) b. United States (36) c. Russia (23) d. Any other country (192) The USA whalloped the competition, crushing China in the gold medal tally: United States 46 China 38 Great Britain 29 Russia 24 Korea 13 means that the answer to Question 6 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is B. United States . Most entrants were pessimistic about the US, as 29 people picked China to repeat as top gold garnerer. But they were whalloped by the 19 who picked the United States to re-emerge victorious. USA! USA! Keila Megan Mary Ryan Grant Marcus Michael Ekrem Nadir Sarah T. Janet Jason Miriam Craig Ben Hannah Peter B. Beth Liz Question 13-15. Death (a) Yitzhak Shamir This early Zionist and later two-time prime minister of Israel was the oldest person on our list. That made him a very popular pick. The Stern Gang Stacey Kevin Cameron Megan Mary Keila Cherie Matthew Michael Leanne Zoe Marcus Russell Pete C. Missy Ted Rachel Nadir Ryan (d) Er

5. Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers? a. The Washington Post b. The New York Times c. The Wall Street Journal d. The Los Angeles Times e. another paper will be named the most times The New York Times won big again in the Pulitzer Prizes , garnering awards for Explanatory Reporting (David Kocieniewski, explaining how General Electric and others exploit loopholes in the tax code) and for International Reporting (Jeffrey Gettleman, covering famine and points of conflict in East Africa). This means that the answer to Question 5 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is B. The New York Times . The Gray Ladies: Matthew Cherie Sarah M. Keila Megan Cameron Kevin Stacey Gloria Todd Ekrem Miriam Russell Zoe Eric Craig Ben Liz Pete C. Question 7, GOP Who will win the Republican nomination? a. Mitt Romney b. Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum c. a dark horse (anyone else) Although it's not official until August, Mitt Romney has finally solidified support of the Republican Party

4. What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture? a. The Artist b. The Descendants c. Hugo d. The Help e. Midnight in Paris f. none of the above: some other film will win The Artist prevailed, becoming the first silent film to win the top Academy Award since Wings at the inaugural Oscars ceremony in 1929. This means that the answer to Question 4 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is A . Look for another silent film to compete for Best Picture while filling out your entry for the 87th annual Prognostication Quiz in 2095 or so. Twenty people scored on Question 4, more than tripling the total number of points scored thus far this year. The silent generation: Ellen Grant Peter M. Matthew Cherie Sarah T. Chris M. Sarah M. Katie Adrian Dave Marcus Megan Janet Michael Stacey Todd Leanne Mary Ekrem Leaderboard Congratulations to my aunt Ellen, college friend Grant, and high school friend Peter M. for garnering one of the early nine points and then guessing correctly on Question 4. 2 Ellen 2

3. Football (February) Who will win the Super Bowl? a. #1 seed in the NFC (Green Bay Packers, 15-1) b. #1 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots, 13-3) c. #2 seed in the NFC (San Francisco 49ers, 13-3) d. #2 seed in the AFC (Baltimore Ravens, 12-4) e. another NFC team f. another AFC team Four years ago, in the first year of the Prognostication Quiz, head coach Tom Coughlin and quarterback Eli Manning led the New York Giants to a stunning defeat over coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady of the New England Patriots. The Patriots were coming off an undefeated season and were 12-point favorites heading into the game but were eclipsed by the upstart Giants. The rematch came this year, with the Patriots again meeting the Giants with the same coaches and quarterbacks. The Patriots were only 2.5-point favorites this time, but the Giants cut them down again, once more forcing Tom Brady to bow his head in obeisance to Eli Manning (see photo). This means the answer to Question 3 of of th

(Guest post by Katie) Calvin Calvin is an extraordinarily happy and agreeable baby. When Mommy comes downstairs in the morning (Daddy gets up first with the boys) or comes home from work, Calvin grins and flaps his arms excitedly. He used to clap, but the clapping could not be as enthusiastic as the flapping. For a while now, whenever Calvin started to fuss, it meant he was hungry or sleepy. Now, he is often fussing instead because he wants a particular toy, and usually a toy that Max is sequestering. Max Max has been becoming very communicative and expressing lots of ideas as of late, though we don’t always know where the ideas that he expresses come from. “I wish Calvin had more arms, so that he could be a spider.” This was apropos of nothing, as far as we could tell. “Then you will leave me all alone, and I will cry.” This matter-of-fact declaration by Maxwell followed Daddy’s explanation of the series of events that would take place before bed: First, we will brush your teeth; the

1. Quiz What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz? Here are this year's answers, with last year's answers in parentheses: a. 11 (7) b. 8 (4) c. 7 (8) d. 13 (7) e. 4 (15) f. 8 (10) The answer to the kick-off question of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is E . Only four people chose it out of the 51 entrants we have this year. The E Street Band : Ellen Keila Grant Kevin People avoided last year's most popular answer, making reverse psychology the big winner over reverse-reverse psychology. (Recall that straight up psychology may have led to the popular choice of E last year .) None of the four winners had a compelling explanation for why E might have worked better than the rest. Ellen's strategy was to pick her initials E and A for all the questions, and she followed a hunch about E here. Grant utilized optimal game theory strategy and used a random number generator to select the correct answer. Keila and Kevin perhaps deserve

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 14, 2012 . Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com. Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter! 1. Quiz (January) A repeat of last year’s Question 1 with the added twist that we now know last year’s answers. Will reverse psychology prevail, or reverse-reverse psychology? The number of votes each answer received last year is in parentheses. What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz? a. A (7) b. B (4) c. C (8) d. D (7) e. E (15) f. F (10) 2. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2011 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2010, down two from the previous year. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2011? The number of times eac

The Final Question 12. Stocks What will be the year-end close for the Dow? a. under 10,500 b. 10,500 to 11,000 c. 11,000 to 11,500 d. 11,500 to 12,000 e. 12,000 to 12,500 f. greater than 12,500 The Dow Jones index finished at 12,217.56, bringing to a close the 2011 Prognostication Quiz with a final answer of E. 12,000 to 12,500. This was the most popular answer, and mimics the long-term trend in the Dow Jones index. I hope everyone borrowed heavily and invested in stocks this year. The E people: Russell Jo Cameron M. Dave Ekrem Michael Kevin Claire&Craig Rachel F. Grant Beth Rachel H. Tina Ellen Zhiqi Janet Eric Peter B. Chris C. Nadir Leader Board The point for Russell pulls him into a tie with Marcus for first place with seven points. After the tie-breaker, however, Marcus wins by a neck. Here is the final listing with the tie-break incorporated: 1. Marcus (7) 2. Russell (7) 3. Jo (6) 4. Cameron M. (5) 5. Dave (5) 6. Ryan (5) 7. Paul (5) 8. Megan (5) 9. Adrian (5) 10. Stacey (5)