2013 Prognostication Quiz

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 12, 2013.
Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter.
The winner receives a deluxe gift bag.
Happy guessing!

1. Freedom (January)

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2012 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2011. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2012? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. Note: the ten worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Antigua and Barbuda, Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best "partly free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Ecuador, Lesotho, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Tonga, and Turkey.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (3), 85 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 86 total
c. no change (6), 87 total
d. plus one (3), 88 total
e. plus two or three (2), 89-90 total
f. plus four or more (3), 91 or more total

2. Groundhog (February 2)

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. (He has declined repeated invitations to join the Prognostication Quiz.) On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each (since 1887) is indicated in parentheses.

What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (100)
b. No shadow (15)

3. Football (February 3)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail? (Regular season wins and losses are indicated.)

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (Denver Broncos, 13-3)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (Atlanta Falcons, 13-3)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots, 12-4)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (San Francisco 49ers, 11-4-1)
e. another AFC team (Texans, Ravens, Colts, Bengals)
f. another NFC team (Packers, Redskins, Seahawks, Vikings)

4. Film (February 24)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year at the Academy Awards? The top answers below are listed in reverse order of likelihood, according to Intrade.com.

What will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
a. Lincoln
b. Zero Dark Thirty
c. Les Miserables
d. Argo
e. none of the above: some other film will win

5. Kenya (March 4)

In 2007, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki lost an election to Raila Odinga, but refused to step down. Violent riots ensued, and a power sharing agreement was eventually reached with Odinga taking the newly created post of Prime Minister. Another election is scheduled for March and will likely pit Odinga of the Cord coalition against a yet-to-be-chosen member of the Jubilee coalition. Odinga is a ten-point favorite in early polling.

Who will win the 2013 presidential election in Kenya?
a. Raila Odinga
b. the Jubilee coalition candidate
c. someone else
d. no one: elections will be canceled or postponed past 2013

6. Writing (April 15)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 12 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (5)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (4)
e. another news organization will be named the most times (0)

7. Horses (May 4)

The 139th running of the Kentucky Derby will have America's finest three-year-old thoroughbred horses challenge each other in the annual Race for the Roses. Working from a list of over three hundred aspiring entrants, I have split the horses into approximately equal groups. This takes into account horse naming psychology, which seems to lean toward S names. The names of the favorite horses within each grouping are indicated in parentheses.

What letter will the Kentucky Derby winner's name start with?
a. A or B (Archwarrior, Bern Identity)
b. C or D (Capo Bastone, Dewey Square)
c. E, F, or G (Frac Daddy, Goldencents)
d. H, I, J, K, or L (He's Had Enough, Little Distorted)
e. M, N, or O (Normandy Invasion, Overanalyze)
f. P, Q, or R (Power Broker, Purple Egg)
g. S (Shanghai Bobby, Super Ninety Nine)
h. T, U, V, W, X, Y, or Z (Uncaptured, Violence)

8. Yachts (September)

The oldest active trophy in international sport is up for grabs this year with the 34th running of the America's Cup. The challenging Royal Swedish Yacht Club will take on the defending Golden Gate Yacht Club.

Who will win the America's Cup?
a. The Golden Gate Yacht Club
b. The Royal Swedish Yacht Club

9. Peace (October)

Below is a list of individuals and groups who created buzz surrounding the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize. Many of them will be nominated again in 2013. Due to the length of the list and the unpredictability of the process (the European Union was not thought to be a strong contender but won anyway last year, for example), you get THREE guesses on this one. They are listed in very rough order with the favorites toward the start and longer shots at the end. (Note: If I list a group in an answer, full credit will be given if any member of that group wins the prize. If you name a group for as a write-in, the group itself must win the prize to score a point.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
a. Academic Peace Researcher (e.g. Gene Sharp or Steven Pinker)
b. Memorial (Russian human rights group)
c. Middle East internet activist (e.g. Lina Ben Mhenni)
d. Nigerian peacemaker (e.g. Mohamed Sa'ad Abubakar)
e. Thein Sein (Myanmar President)
f. Echo of Moscow (Russian opposition radio station)
g. Bill Clinton (former U.S. President)
h. Cuban dissident (e.g. Oscar Elias Biscet Gonzales)
i. Maggie Gobran (the "Mother Theresa of Cairo")
j. Abdul Sattar Edhi (Pakistani social worker)
k. Helmut Kohl (former West German Chancellor)
l. John Githongo (Kenyan whistleblowing journalist)
m. Srdja Popovic (former Serbian activist)
n. Sima Samvar (woman's rights activist)
o. Democratic Voice of Burma (dissident radio station)
p. Novaya Gazeta (Russian opposition newspaper)
q. Wikileaks, Julian Assange, or Bradley Manning
r. Facebook, Twitter, or Wikipedia
s. Malahat Nasibova (Azerbaijani journalist)
t. Bill Gates (American philanthropist)
u. Yassen Nikolayevich Zassoursky (Russian journalist)
v. Al Jazeera (Qatari television station)
w. Tim Berners-Lee (internet inventor)
x. Write in your own guess: __________________
y. Write in your own guess: __________________
z. Write in your own guess: __________________

10. Storms (November 30)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were ten hurricanes in 2012, seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004.
 
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more

11. Stocks (December 31)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 12,900. How will the Dow end up after what could be a wild and crazy 2013, with a fiscal cliff, a euro crisis, and a new Premier in China?

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 12,000
b. 12,000 to 12,800
c. 12,800 to 13,600
d. 13,600 to 14,300
e. 14,300 to 15,000
f. greater than 15,000

12. Events (All Year)

Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. A through D are listed in contracts on Intrade.com and are trading in the 20 – 35% range.

What event will happen in 2013?
a. The US or Israel undertakes an airstrike in Iran
b. Any country drops the euro as its national currency
c. The Freedom Tower is officially opened in New York
d. The US removes Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list
e. An earthquake of magnitude 8.6 or higher happens anywhere
f. Your favorite baseball team plays in the World Series: ______________

13-15. Death (All Year)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2013? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through S managed to survive last year's quiz, while T through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. (This year's birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that 90-year-old Pierre Cardin has an 86% chance of surviving the year while 96-year-old Beverly Cleary has a 77% chance of seeing 2014. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2013?
a. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (97)
b. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (97)
c. Zsa Zsa Gabor, Police-slapping Actress (96)
d. I. M. Pei, MIT-trained Architect (96)
e. Allan Arbus, M*A*S*H Actor (95)
f. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (95)
g. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist (95)
h. Nelson Mandela, former President of South Africa (95)
i. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (95)
j. Helmut Schmidt, former Chancellor of West Germany (95)
k. Mikhail Kalashnikov, AK-47 inventor (94)
l. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (94)
m. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (93)
n. John Paul Stevens, former US Supreme Court Justice(93)
o. Mickey Rooney, Boys Town Actor (93)
p. George Shultz, former Secretary of State (93)
q. Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth (92)
r. Nancy Reagan, former US First Lady (92)
s. John Glenn, former astronaut & Senator (92)
t. Esther Williams, Olympic Swimmer & Hollywood Star (92)
u. Ben Bradlee, former Editor of the Washington Post (92)
v. Luis Álvarez, former President of Mexico (91)
w. Betty White, Comedic Actress (91)
x. John Anderson, Third-party Candidate for US President (91)
y. Doris Day, Movie Icon (91)
z. Pierre Cardin, Fashion Designer (91)

For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Name:___________________________________

e-mail:___________________________________