J. Michael Andresen

Matthew Wins! Matthew D. has won the 2009 Prognostication Quiz! He correctly guessed the two December questions to leapfrog over Ted in order to claim the prognostication championship. Matthew ended with a final score of 8, beating out Ted by one point. The tie-break was not needed this year, but Matthew crushed the competition in that category as well. The total snowfall for the year in Minneapolis-Saint Paul was 47.0 inches. Matthew had 47.3 inches as his tie-break guess. That was the closest guess among all 43 entrants. I was second with a guess of 46.2 inches and my aunt Ellen was third with a guess of 46.0 inches. Poor Rachel H. ended the year with no points. That's the first time that has been done in the two years of the quiz. I'll find a booby prize to send to her to encourage her to enter again this year despite the horrible embarrassment. Leader board Here are the final rankings, sorted by total score and then by the tie break: Rank Name (Score) 1 Matthew (8) 2 Ted (7

Per our usual tradition, we spend Christmas Eve with Katie's family and Christmas Day with my family. These are my favorite pictures of the holidays: Auntie Laura and Max. Grandma June and Max. Grandpa Tom and Max. Max is super excited to open his first present! He loved ripping the paper off the presents. The actual gift was often quite anticlimactic. (Click for a larger view of Max's ecstatic smile.) Mom & Dad & Max pose for the camera. Dad's pose and facial expression remain frozen while Mom & Max branch out. Grandma Cherie and Dad and Max. Auntie Tina thinks that as long as she watches her margarita carefully, she will be able to keep Max from disrupting it while she pretends it's actually Max's drink. Auntie Tina is shocked to see how fast Max moves. (We had to clean the liquor from his hand to keep him from sucking on it.) Max is transfixed by the whirring noise and music and flying plastic balls from Missy and Tina's present. Uncle Jeremiah an

An annual holiday tradition dating back to December 2007, The Prognostication Quiz experienced exponential growth in entrants from its first year to its second . Help the trend continue! Send 15 answers plus one tie-breaker to jmandresen at gmail. The winner receives an overstuffed gift bag full of wondrous goodies! The deadline for entries is 11:10 p.m. on January 11, 2010 1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2009 report calculated that 89 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2008. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2009? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. How will the number of free countries change? a. minus two or worse (2), 87 or fewer total b. minus one (4), 88 total c. no change (3), 89

Max likes to play with his pacifier. It's a handy toy that he can carry around with him in his mouth. When he's playing with it, he manipulates it with his hands and sucks on it from all different angles. Sometimes I steal it from him. He knows it's his, though, and grabs it right back.

Hurricane season has ended. Only Bill, Fred, and Ida made it to hurricane status this year, which means that the answer to Question 12 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is A. 5 or less . As I wrote last time , this has been a foregone conclusion for some time. More interesting now is the latest on the last questions 13 (Stocks) and 14 (Snow). November has seen a continued rally in the Dow, pushing the average over the 10,000 point mark. If it dips back down below 10,000, Ted will win. If it stays above 10,000 then things become interesting. In that case, Ted and Matthew will be tied at 7 points while Larry will have 6. Here is the key Question 14: How much snow will fall in Minnesota? a. Fewer than 34 inches b. 34 to 42.9 inches c. 43 to 48.9 inches d. 49 to 57.9 inches e. 58 to 69.9 inches f. 70 inches or more The tiebreaking question is also based on Question 14, asking for a precise number of inches of snowfall. Ted guessed E with a tiebreak of 59.0 inches. Larry guessed D with a ti

The Yankees Suck Win! They bested the Phillies in the World Series last night, which means that the answer to Question 11 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is C. American League in 6 games. Answer C was by far the most popular answer for Question 11, chosen by 18 of the 43 entrants: Pete C. Zoe Larry Ben Stephanie Adrian Michael Missy Jan Kevin Leanne Ellen Zhiqi Sarah Cameron Russell Greg Eric Eliminations Four people were eliminated by question 11: Ekrem Pamela Ana Jeremiah And while the hurricane season doesn't officially end until the end of the month (and despite Ida's upgrade to hurricane strength), we would still need three more hurricanes to get out of answer A. I can tentatively eliminate these five (though a miraculous concentration of hurricane activity this month would resurrect some): Stephanie Grant Missy Tina Leanne Leaderboard That brings us down to just five people with a chance of winning based on Question 13 (Dow Jones Index) and Question 14 (Minnesota Snowf

For Max's first Halloween, Katie and I had some difficulty agreeing on a costume. My only absolute requirement was that it had to be a mammal. (Cute and furry was just too irresistible for me.) Katie was fonder overall with lobster or frog or one of a variety of invertebrates but relented to my one request. Of the mammals, the lion with the colorful mane was my favorite as well. Katie initially resisted, but eventually bowed to my enthusiasm. It turned out to be a somewhat controversial decision. My sisters in particular thought it was a poor choice. I still think it was a winner. Look how cute: Then we took Max to our next door neighbors and across the street to let him show off his cuteness. At the last stop, he showed off his highly advanced grabbing capabilities. Step one: See the candy. Step two: Grab the candy. Step three: Put candy in mouth. Step four: Throw candy on the floor. (It doesn't taste so good with the wrapper still on, anyway.)

We wanted to take some simple video of Max being cute, but then he decided to stage an entire drama in three acts:

Max had his first snow in early October. We bought him a snowsuit that we thought he would grow into. He still has some growing to do. Max absolutely loved the snow! He kept smiling and laughing and looking straight up at the sky, for some reason. Usually he likes looking at the camera, but not that day! You can see the sad snow-covered mums we brought to brighten up our fall doorstep and the orange pumpkin we'll carve for Halloween is peeking out from behind Max. The snow caught us a little by surprise, but what fun!

We are officially halfway through Max's first year. He had his six-month checkup yesterday and is hale and hearty aside from the vaccination shots he received. Most impressively, Max now has (a) amazing manual dexterity along with (b) astounding physical strength. Watch him demonstrate this as he (a) plays with his pacifier and (b) rolls over onto his stomach! (He had already mastered rolling over from his stomach onto his back.) He also flashes some of his winning smiles.

Obama Wins! In an unexpected move, Barack Obama has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. He won "for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples." No "development of nuclear democracy rights in the Middle East" means that the answer to Question 10 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is F. None of the above. Five people suspected that A through E had already been overemphasized by the committee in the past and guessed that the Nobel committee would break ties with the past: Ted Matthew Larry Ana Missy These five may have figured that answer F was the smart bet because this is the fourth year in a row now where "none of the above" is correct for this set of buzz words. (Stay tuned for the 2010 Quiz, which will have an updated set of buzz words.) Eliminations This was a brutal round for eliminations. Sixteen people (37% of the field) were eliminated with question 10: Katie Ben Liz Heather Michael Peter M. Glori

To celebrate our two-year, four-month anniversary, here is a series of clips from our wedding. All the work that went into the video was a wonderful wedding gift from my aunt and uncle, Jay and Diane. (My cousin Lara helped with some camera work, too.) It was a very special gift and Katie and I are very grateful! I've broken it into 26 clips: Prelude We had a lot of fun picking the readings and the song. A huge thanks to our readers and singers and officiant! Procession and Introduction First Reading: For Whom the Bell Tolls Second Reading: I Do I Will I Have Song: Love Changes Everything Third Reading: The Velveteen Rabbit Vows We each wrote our own vows, and we didn't share them until we were standing together in front of our friends and family. We did, however, give each other very general descriptions of the tone we were going for. That let us figure out that Katie should start and I should finish. Introduction to Vows Katie's Vows Michael's Vows Mutual Vows Exchang

Max has already had two friends of similar age to have play dates with. His first play date was with Griffin, back in July. Max was in a bit of a mellow mood, but Griffin was quite rambunctious! A couple weeks ago, Max met Brennan for the first time. We put them on a blanket together and they seemed to be having a good time. Max is a month older than Brennan, but Brennan still jumped out to an early lead in the wrestling match by grabbing Max's ear. "Ow! That hurts!" "I'm free!" "Now it's your turn, buster!" Brennan is down for the count (but doesn't seem to mind so much). We broke up the brawlers, but Max still felt like taunting Brennan with some of his four-month-old skills, like holding his head up. (Brennan will get there very shortly!) Max then proceeded to amaze us all by rolling over for the very first time! Mom and Dad were very proud! (And thanks to Heather and Ryan for hosting!)

We have started Max on solid foods! We've decided that it's time to start trying him out with some yummy (or not) rice cereal. I fed Max the cereal mixed with a lot of water. (Does a precipitate count as a solid?) A lot got on his bib and elsewhere, but we had lots of fun. Katie fed him some cereal on another day and made it thicker. All the better to stick to his face!