2010 Prognostication Quiz

An annual holiday tradition dating back to December 2007, The Prognostication Quiz experienced exponential growth in entrants from its first year to its second. Help the trend continue! Send 15 answers plus one tie-breaker to jmandresen at gmail. The winner receives an overstuffed gift bag full of wondrous goodies! The deadline for entries is 11:10 p.m. on January 11, 2010

1. Freedom (January)

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2009 report calculated that 89 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2008. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2009? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?

a. minus two or worse (2), 87 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 88 total
c. no change (3), 89 total
d. plus one (3), 90 total
e. plus two or three (2), 91-92 total
f. plus four or more (3), 93 or more total

2. Beauty (January)

The Miss America pageant is held in Las Vegas in January. Each contestant must perform a talent en route to the crown. The contestants have been selected and have indicated the talents they will be showcasing (totals in parentheses).

What will Miss America’s listed talent be?

a. “Vocal” only (14)
b. Some very special variety of vocal (10)
c. Dance (19)
d. Playing an instrument (8)
e. Playing piano AND singing (1, NH)
f. Stereotype special: Baton Twirl (1, AR)

3. Football (February)

The conference each plays in and the playoff seed is indicated.

Who will win the Super Bowl?

a. #1 NFC Seed (New Orleans Saints)
b. #2 NFC Seed (Minnesota Vikings)
c. #1 AFC Seed (Indianapolis Colts)
d. #2 AFC Seed (San Diego Chargers)
e. another NFC team
f. another AFC team

4. Film (March)

Oscar nominations do not come out until February 2, but the Golden Globe nominees for Best Drama (listed below) often include the Oscar winner for best picture.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?

a. Avatar
b. The Hurt Locker
c. Inglourious Basterds
d. Precious
e. Up in the Air
f. none of the above: some other film will win

5. Writing (April)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 10 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?

a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (3)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (3)
e. another paper will be named the most times (0)

6. Soccer (June)

The world’s most popular sport has its championship every four years. Who will win while the US yawns?

Who will win the FIFA World Cup?

a. Brazil
b. Spain
c. Another primarily Spanish-speaking country
d. A primarily English-speaking country
e. A primarily German- or French-speaking country
f. None of the above

7. Golf (August)

Tiger Woods has won 14 Major Championships in the past 13 years, but he was shut out in 2009. Will his recent spate of extramarital sex energize or distract him this year? Will he even play in the Masters? The number of total times he has won each event is indicated. (Ties are possible.)

Which Major Championships will Tiger win?

a. the Masters in April (4)
b. the US Open in June (3)
c. the British Open in July (3)
d. the PGA Championship in August (4)
e. Tiger will win no Championships

8. Peace (October)

For the past 20 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 20 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.)

What key word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize?

a. “Democracy” (5)
b. “Rights” (5)
c. Any specific geographical region (5)
d. “International” (5)
e. “Peaceful” (6)
f. None of the above (4)

9. Storms (November)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were three hurricanes in 2009, eight hurricanes in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the last 12 years)?

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?

a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

10. Polls (November)

Historically, the party that wins the White House loses seats in Congress for the midterm elections. (For example, the Presidential party has lost an average of 17 seats in the House during mid-term elections since World War II.) How will the Democratic caucuses change in the US House and Senate on Election Day?

How many seats will the Democrats lose?

a. 40 or more seats
b. 30 to 39 seats
c. 20 to 29 seats
d. 10 to 19 seats
e. 0 to 9 seats
f. none of the above (they will GAIN seats)

11. Sports (December)

The NFL has a 16-game season and a 4-game playoff culminating in the highest rated television event each year. Meanwhile, an NBA or an NHL team plays 82 regular season games and might play 28 playoff games. An MLB team plays 162 regular season games and might play 20 playoff games. What region will have the most number of total wins in the regular season and playoffs in these endurance sports?

Which region will have the most basketball, hockey, and baseball wins in 2010?

a. Great White North (Canada, MN, WI, MI)
b. Pacific (CA, OR, WA)
c. Northeast (MA, NY, NJ, MD, DC)
d. Southeast (FL, GA, NC, MO, TN, LA)
e. West (CO, UT, AZ, OK, TX)
f. Heartland (IL, IN, OH, PA)

12. Stocks (December)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 10,500. Will the index continue its meteoric rise this year, or will it run out of steam? (Sorry about the mixed metaphors.)

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?

a. under 9,500
b. 9,500 to 10,000
c. 10,000 to 10,500
d. 10,500 to 11,000
e. 11,000 to 11,500
f. greater than 11,500

13-15. Death (December)

Which of these celebrities will kick the bucket in 2010? You get THREE guesses on this one. (Their next birthdays are indicated. If you pick someone who buys the farm before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2010?

a. Miep Gies, Shelterer of Anne Frank (101)
b. Gloria Stuart, Titanic Actress (100)
c. Mitch Miller, Swing Era Bandleader (99)
d. Harry Morgan, M*A*S*H Actor (95)
e. Barbara Billingsley, Airplane! Actress (95)
f. Martin Gardner, Mathematician and Author (96)
g. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (94)
h. Sherwood Schwartz, Brady Bunch Producer (94)
i. Yitzhak Shamir, Former Israeli Premier (95)
j. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (94)
k. Ernest Borgnine, Marty Actor (93)
l. Zsa Zsa Gabor, police-slapping Actress (93)
m. I. M. Pei, Louvre glass pyramid Architect (93)
n. Lena Horne, Stormy Weather Singer (93)
o. Phyllis Diller, Comedienne (93)
p. Robert Byrd, oldest guy in the US Senate (93)
q. Allan Arbus, M*A*S*H Actor (92)
r. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (92)
s. Betty Ford, Former US First Lady (92)
t. Mike Wallace, 60 Minutes Journalist (92)
u. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist (92)
v. Nelson Mandela, S. Africa Ex-President (92)
w. Bob Feller, Cleveland Indians Pitcher (92)
x. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (92)
y. Helmut Schmidt, W. German Ex-Chancellor (92)
z. J.D. Salinger, Catcher in the Rye Author (91)


For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Name:___________________________________

e-mail:___________________________________