J. Michael Andresen

13-15. Death (All Year) Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2013?  A surprise death yesterday! Mikhail Kalishnikov, inventor of the world's most popular assault rifle, passed away yesterday at the age of 94. This makes K the fifth correct answer this year to Questions 13 - 15 in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz . The AK-47's Matthew Sarah M. Michael Stephanie Nadir Leaderboard This causes a dramatic last-minute shake-up in the Quiz leaderboard. Matthew, Sarah. M., and myself each gain our fourth point to tie Liz, Chris C., Larry, and Pete C. at the top with 4 points. With the most optimistic view of stocks this year, though, Matthew takes over first place with the tiebreaker included. He topples Liz, who has had a stranglehold on the top spot since April. Liz is now in second place and will need a Christmas week miracle to reclaim the top spot. 4 Matthew 4 Liz 4 Sarah M. 4 Chris C. 4 Michael 4 Larry 4 Pete C. 3 Jeff 3 Marcus 3 Rachel F. 3 Ru

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 11, 2014 . Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com. Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter. The winner receives a deluxe gift bag. Happy guessing! 1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2013 report calculated that 90 of the world’s 195 nations were “free” in 2012. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2013? Note: the twelve worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Lesotho, Montenegro, Peru, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Tonga. The twelve best "partly free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Georgia,

10. Storms Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were ten hurricanes in 2012, seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004.   How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season? a. 4 or less b. 5-6 c. 7-8 d. 9-10 e. 11-12 f. 13 or more This was a crazy year for hurricanes. The bigwigs were predicting an above-average year for hurricanes, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicting between 7 and 11 hurricanes this year, well above the recent average. In fact, there were only two storyms made it to hurricane strength (Humberto and Ingrid), and even those barely made it (each only reaching the minimum strength category 1). This makes the answer to Question 10 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is A. 4 or less . Only one person correctly predicted that we would have so few hurricanes. I would normally give kud

8. Yachts (September) The oldest active trophy in international sport is up for grabs this year with the 34th running of the America's Cup. The challenging Royal Swedish Yacht Club will take on the defending Golden Gate Yacht Club. Who will win the America's Cup? a. The Golden Gate Yacht Club b. The Royal Swedish Yacht Club The Americans kept the America's Cup this year, and the answer to Question 8 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is A. The Golden Gate Yacht Club of Larry Ellison's Team Oracle. I made some mistakes in my phrasing of the question due to my naivete regarding the event. Although the Royal Swedish Yacht Club was listed as the "challenger of record," the actual challenger is chosen by an initial competition (the Louis Vuitton Cup). Emirates Team New Zealand bested the Royal Swedish Yacht Club and the Sicily Circle of Sailing to earn the right to take on the Golden Gate Yacht Club. Since the Americans won, this mistake had no

7. Horses (May 4) The 139th running of the Kentucky Derby will have America's finest three-year-old thoroughbred horses challenge each other in the annual Race for the Roses. Working from a list of over three hundred aspiring entrants, I have split the horses into approximately equal groups. This takes into account horse naming psychology, which seems to lean toward S names. What letter will the Kentucky Derby winner's name start with? a. A or B b. C or D c. E, F, or G d. H, I, J, K, or L e. M, N, or O f. P, Q, or R g. S h. T, U, V, W, X, Y, or Z Orb, Goldencents, and Verrazano were the favorites going into the Kentucky Derby. Orb started out near the back of the pack in sloppy track conditions, but came out on top with a time of 2:02.89 to win a purse of $1,414,800. In case you're slow with the math, that's $11,512.73 per second of racing. Golden Soul finished second and Revolutionary came in third. Orb's win means that the answer to Question 7

6. Writing Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 12 years are listed (ties are possible). Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers? a. The Washington Post (4) b. The New York Times (5) c. The Wall Street Journal (3) d. The Los Angeles Times (4) e. another news organization will be named the most times (0) The New York Times has continued its recent dominance in the Pulitzer Prize category of the Prognostication Quiz. It won four Pulitzers this year, most notably for shaming the sketchy overseas business practices of Apple and Wal-Mart and the hidden wealth of the Chinese Premier's family. The New York Times won five Pulitzers in 2009, seven in 2002, and otherwise no more than three. The answer to Question 6 of the 201

4. Film (February 24) Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year at the Academy Awards?  What will win the Oscar for Best Picture? a. Lincoln b. Zero Dark Thirty c. Les Miserables d. Argo e. none of the above: some other film will win Lincoln was the early favorite and strengthened its lead when Argo director Ben Affleck was snubbed by the Academy in the directing category. But Argo won prize after prize in the award season run-up to the Academy Awards, and in the end it won the Oscar for best picture. The answer to Question 4 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is D. Only three people guessed Argo , and they deserve much credit for seeing so much promise in the underdog film. The Argonauts Jan Chris C. Keila 5. Kenya (March 4) In 2007, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki lost an election to Raila Odinga, but refused to step down. Violent riots ensued, and a power sharing agreement was eventually reached with Odinga taking the newl

2. Groundhog (February 2) Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. (He has declined repeated invitations to join the Prognostication Quiz.) On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each (since 1887) is indicated in parentheses. What will Punxatawney Phil see? a. His shadow (100) b. No shadow (15) Punxatawney Phil looked around earlier this month and saw no trace of shadow, indicating that we will have an early spring. That means the answer to Question 2 in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is B. Ten of the 46 entrants (22%) correctly guessed that we were going to have an early winter this year. This is much higher than the 13% rate at which Phil has predicted an early spring since 1887. Did these folk check if human prognosticators predicted an early spring? No, the Farmer's

1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2012 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2011. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2012? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. Note: the ten worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Antigua and Barbuda, Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best "partly free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Ecuador, Lesotho, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Tonga, and Turkey. How will the number of free coun