2013 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 4 and 5, Film and Kenya

4. Film (February 24)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year at the Academy Awards? 

What will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
a. Lincoln
b. Zero Dark Thirty
c. Les Miserables
d. Argo
e. none of the above: some other film will win

Lincoln was the early favorite and strengthened its lead when Argo director Ben Affleck was snubbed by the Academy in the directing category. But Argo won prize after prize in the award season run-up to the Academy Awards, and in the end it won the Oscar for best picture. The answer to Question 4 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is D.

Only three people guessed Argo, and they deserve much credit for seeing so much promise in the underdog film.

The Argonauts
Jan
Chris C.
Keila

5. Kenya (March 4)

In 2007, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki lost an election to Raila Odinga, but refused to step down. Violent riots ensued, and a power sharing agreement was eventually reached with Odinga taking the newly created post of Prime Minister. Another election is scheduled for March and will likely pit Odinga of the Cord coalition against a yet-to-be-chosen member of the Jubilee coalition. Odinga is a ten-point favorite in early polling.

Who will win the 2013 presidential election in Kenya?
a. Raila Odinga
b. the Jubilee coalition candidate
c. someone else
d. no one: elections will be canceled or postponed past 2013

Uhuru Kenyatta (pictured above, right) was an unlikely contender. Indicted by the International Criminal Court for organizing death squads in the violence surrounding the 2007 election, he was nonetheless chosen as the Jubilee Alliance's candidate in the presidential election. Formation of the coalition out of four political parties proved very canny, as it seems most Kenyans voted primarily by tribal affiliation, unseating the incumbent president Raila Odinga (pictured above, left). The answer to Question 4 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is B.

Another question, another underdog winner. Kudos to the four people who got the answer right this time, predicting that Odinga's early polling lead would evaporate in the final campaigning.

The Jubilee Junkies
Larry
Zhiqi
Stephanie
Jeff

Leaderboard

It has been a year of upsets so far! All of the first five events have had upset winners. Only 24 points have been scored in the first five questions. Had the five favorite answers been picked, 134 points would have been scored. Grant and Marcus would have now been tied at the top, with 5 points each.

Congratulations instead to Chris M., who continues his Quiz-crushing ways. The only big change near the top is that my father, Larry, has somehow managed to scratch his way to two points, which is double his entire score from last year. He joins Liz, Pete C., and Cameron in the second tier, just one back and breathing down Chris M.'s neck. A whopping 17 entrants are now two behind the leader. The 23 of us sad sacks who still have no points even have some hope, as we're only three points back. We still have lots of Quiz yet to come!

3    Chris M.
2    Liz
2    Larry
2    Pete C.
2    Cameron
1    Jeff
1    Jan
1    Janet
1    Dave
1    Ron
1    Ellen
1    Stephanie
1    Grant
1    Zhiqi
1    Valerie
1    Chris C.
1    Keila
1    Tina
1    Melissa
1    Mary
1    Miriam
1    Katie
0    Sarah T.
0    Marcus
0    Ryan C.
0    Rachel
0    Russell
0    Matthew
0    Ben
0    Todd
0    Megan
0    Peter B.
0    Ryan M.
0    Adrian
0    Sarah M.
0    Collette
0    Eric
0    Nadir
0    Gloria
0    Leanne
0    Paul
0    Michael
0    Stacey
0    Rachel
0    Ekrem

Question 6 Update

Chris M. picked The Wall Street Journal to win the most Pulitzer prizes this year, and he would move to a commanding two-point lead if that happened. Cameron picked "none of the above" and would tie Chris M. at the top if that happens. Larry, Liz, and Pete C. all picked The New York Times, and they, too, would pull into a tie at the top if they won. Miriam, Ellen, Janet, and Jeff all chose The Washington Post, and will pull into a tie for second place if that comes to pass. Likewise, Zhiqi picked The Los Angeles Times and would climb to second place if she is correct.