Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter.
The winner receives a deluxe gift bag.
Happy guessing!
1. Freedom (January)
Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2013 report calculated that 90 of the world’s 195 nations were “free” in 2012. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2013? Note: the twelve worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Lesotho, Montenegro, Peru, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Tonga. The twelve best "partly free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Georgia, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Seychelles, and Tanzania. The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (3), 88 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 89 total
c. no change (6), 90 total
d. plus one (3), 91 total
e. plus two or three (3), 92-93 total
f. plus four or more (3), 94 or more total
2. Groundhog (February 2)
Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (14)
b. No shadow (6)
3. Football (February 2)
The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail? (Regular season wins and losses are indicated.)Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (Denver Broncos, 13-3)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (Seattle Seahawks, 13-3)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots, 12-4)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (Carolina Panthers, 12-4)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team
4. Olympics (February 23)
An Olympic gold medal is the goal of all of the young athletes competing at the Winter Olympics this February in Sochi, Russia. Canada won the most gold medals in 2010, but it was the host country, which usually gets a boost in medal count. Russia is hoping to prevail this year, but it would have a very long way to come from its low gold medal count in 2010. The Olympic predictor Infostrada, which looks at how individual athletes from each country perform in international trials, predicts Norway will rise to the top this year. The Infostrada gold medal prediction for each country is listed in parentheses, followed by the gold medal count from the 2010 and 2006 Olympics, respectively.Who will win the most gold medals at the Winter Olympics?
a. Norway (15 predicted in 2014, 9 in 2010, 2 in 2006)
b. United States (14 predicted in 2014, 9 in 2010, 9 in 2006)
c. Canada (11 predicted in 2014, 14 in 2010, 7 in 2006)
d. Germany (6 predicted in 2014, 10 in 2010, 11 in 2006)
e. China (6 predicted in 2014, 6 in 2010, 2 in 2006)
f. Netherlands (6 predicted in 2014, 4 in 2010, 3 in 2006)
g. Switzerland (5 predicted in 2014, 6 in 2010, 5 in 2006)
h. Austria (5 predicted in 2014, 4 in 2010, 9 in 2006)
i. Russia (5 predicted in 2014, 3 in 2010, 8 in 2006)
j. none of the above: another country will win the most gold medals
5. Film (March 2)
Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year at the Academy Awards? These are the five nominees for the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, which often contains the best picture for the Academy, as well.What will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
a. 12 Years a Slave
b. Captain Phillips
c. Gravity
d. Philomena
e. Rush
f. none of the above: some other film will win
6. Writing (April 15)
Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The number of times each has won in this century is listed in parentheses (ties are possible).Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (5)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (5)
e. another news organization will be named the most times (0)
7. Soccer (July 13)
The World Cup takes place this summer. Who will win? Answers are listed in reverse order of their likelihood to win, according to early sports betting sites. Brazil is the early favorite, with perhaps a 25% chance of winning it all.Who will win the FIFA World Cup?
a. Brazil
b. Argentina
c. Spain
d. Germany
e. Italy
f. Belgium
g. Colombia
h. England
i. France
j. Uruguay
k. Portugal
l. None of the above
8. House (November 4)
Republicans currently control the US House of Representatives, with a 234-seat majority. How will that change after mid-term elections?What will happen with the House Republican caucus?
a. They will hold steady or gain more seats (234 or more total)
b. They will lose seats, but keep control of the House (218 to 233 total)
c. They will lose control of the House (0 to 217 total)
9. Senate (November 4)
Democrats currently control the US Senate, with a 54-seat majority. How will that change after mid-term elections?What will happen with the Senate Democratic caucus?
a. They will hold steady or gain more seats (54 or more total)
b. They will lose seats, but keep control of the Senate (50 to 53 total)
c. They will lose control of the Senate (0 to 49 total)
10. Storms (November 30)
Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were a paltry two hurricanes in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004.How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more
11. Stocks (December 31)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index had an amazing year in 2013, rising by 25%. It is currently at around 16,300. Will the Dow continue its rapid climb in 2014, or are we in line for a large market correction?What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 15,000
b. 15,000 to 15,800
c. 15,800 to 16,600
d. 16,600 to 17,300
e. 17,300 to 18,000
f. greater than 18,000
12. Bitcoin (December 31)
For this year's quiz, we will add in a more comical end-of-year prediction from the world of finance. Bitcoin is a fledgling new currency that has made headlines this year both for its novelty and for its volatility. One bitcoin could be bought for $12.50 at the start of 2012 and sold for a stunning $1250 in early December. Some bad mid-December news that China would clamp down on Bitcoin use caused a crash to its current level of around $700. Will Bitcoin continue to be accepted and adopted by more and more people in 2014, or will interest fade and the market collapse?How much will one bitcoin be worth at the end of 2014?
a. Under $200
b. $200 - $400
c. $400 - $600
d. $600 - $800
e. $800 - $1000
f. $1000 - $1200
g. over $1200
13-15. Death (All Year)
Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2014? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through U managed to survive last year's quiz, while V through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. (This year's birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that 90-year-old Bob Barker has an 86% chance of surviving the year while 97-year-old Beverly Cleary has a 75% chance of seeing 2015. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!Who will not survive 2014?
a. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (98)
b. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (98)
c. Zsa Zsa Gabor, Police-slapping Actress (97)
d. I. M. Pei, MIT-trained Architect (97)
e. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (96)
f. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (96)
g. Helmut Schmidt, former West German Chancellor (96)
h. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (95)
i. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (94)
j. John Paul Stevens, former US Supreme Court Justice(94)
k. Mickey Rooney, Boys Town Actor (94)
l. George Shultz, former US Secretary of State (94)
m. Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth (93)
n. Nancy Reagan, former US First Lady (93)
o. John Glenn, former Astronaut & Senator (93)
p. Ben Bradlee, former Editor of the Washington Post (93)
q. Luis Echeverría Álvarez, former President of Mexico (92)
r. Betty White, Comedic Actress (92)
s. John Anderson, Third-party Candidate for US President (92)
t. Doris Day, Movie Icon (92)
u. Pierre Cardin, Fashion Designer (92)
v. Chuck Yeager, Test Pilot (91)
w. Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State (91)
x. Bob Dole, former US Senator (91)
y. Shimon Peres, former Israeli Prime Minister (91)
z. Bob Barker, Price is Right Host (91)
For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________
Name:___________________________________
e-mail:___________________________________
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