Skip to main content

2013 Prognostication Quiz: Question #8, Yachts

8. Yachts (September)

The oldest active trophy in international sport is up for grabs this year with the 34th running of the America's Cup. The challenging Royal Swedish Yacht Club will take on the defending Golden Gate Yacht Club.
Who will win the America's Cup?
a. The Golden Gate Yacht Club
b. The Royal Swedish Yacht Club


The Americans kept the America's Cup this year, and the answer to Question 8 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is A. The Golden Gate Yacht Club of Larry Ellison's Team Oracle.

I made some mistakes in my phrasing of the question due to my naivete regarding the event. Although the Royal Swedish Yacht Club was listed as the "challenger of record," the actual challenger is chosen by an initial competition (the Louis Vuitton Cup). Emirates Team New Zealand bested the Royal Swedish Yacht Club and the Sicily Circle of Sailing to earn the right to take on the Golden Gate Yacht Club. Since the Americans won, this mistake had no consequence on the quiz, but had the challengers won, I would have credited a point to everyone who answered B.

I expected this to be an amusing yawner of an event, but it turned out to be quite an engaging contest. The defending champion gets to write the rules for each round of the America's Cup, and the Golden Gate Yacht Club tried to make things exciting by choosing AC72 catamarans that can travel up to twice the wind speed and maxing out at 45 miles per hour. These conditions were exciting but dangerous, and sadly led to the death of a Swedish sailor in a preliminary round.

Also in the preliminary rounds, the Golden Gate Yacht Club was caught cheating and assessed a two-race penalty, meaning that they would need to win 11 raced to claim the America's Cup, while the Emirates Team New Zealand would only need to win 9 races. The Americans then got off to a horrible start, losing 3 of the first 11 races. At that point, the Golden Gate Yacht Club needed to win eight straight raced to prevail, while the Emirates Team New Zealand would emerge victorious with just one more race. At that point, an oddsmaker might put the Americans' chances at 1 in 32,000, but those clever Oracle engineers must have figured something out to give them back the advantage, because they proceeded to reel off the 8 wins and retain the America's Cup.

The Plentiful Patriots
Pete C.
Larry
Keila
Ekrem
Sarah T.
Ron
Rachel H.
Chris C.
Jeff
Paul
Ryan M.
Rachel F.
Nadir
Jan
Dave
Janet
Gloria
Ryan C.
Stacey
Mary
Matthew
Todd
Leanne
Marcus
Grant
Tina
Russell
Ellen
Adrian
Sarah M.
Collette
Michael
Miriam


9. Peace (October)

Below is a list of individuals and groups who created buzz surrounding the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize. Many of them will be nominated again in 2013. Due to the length of the list and the unpredictability of the process (the European Union was not thought to be a strong contender but won anyway last year, for example), you get THREE guesses on this one. They are listed in very rough order with the favorites toward the start and longer shots at the end. 

The 2013 Nobel Peace prize went to Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, for their "extensive work to eliminate chemical weapons." This was not one of my options for top favorites of last year's prize, and no one wrote it in.

This shows how difficult it is to pick the Peace Prize. When I wrote the question in December, the OPCW was not anywhere on the radar. Since the news in Syria has brought that organization to the forefront and the Nobel Committee (it seems to me) has been trying to pick more winners that actively promote peace rather than, say, heap more laurels on aging politicians for good deeds from long ago.

My sister Missy (who has already failed in her attempt at a zero score this year) picked me to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year. She came very close with that one, certainly, as I am a well known blogger for peace and drug legalization (which would increase world peace by reducing crime-related deaths). Cameron M. wrote in Angela Merkel, and Adrian wrote in Hillary Clinton.

The most impressive write-in by far, though, was Grant's guessing of Malala Yousafzai (pictured above with Jon Stewart), the Pakistani education activist who was shot by the Taliban in an assassination attempt. Yousafzai was certainly the people's favorite in the weeks before the announcement, and she did a crazy number of television interviews to promote freedom of education. (A fawning Jon Stewart deadpanned, "I know your father is backstage and he is very proud of you, but would he be mad if I adopted you?")

 Leaderboard

Although most people picked the Americans to win the Cup, our previous leader, Liz, opted for the underdog challengers. Two others have now joined her at the top of the leaderboard. Kudos to Larry and Pete C., who now share the lead with Liz. (Liz does have the rosier view of the markets this year and thus remains in the lead with the probable tiebreaker taken into account.)

4    Liz
4    Larry
4    Pete C.
3    Marcus
3    Jan
3    Dave
3    Grant
3    Chris C.
3    Keila
3    Tina
3    Stacey
3    Mary
3    Chris M.
2    Jeff
2    Rachel F.
2    Russell
2    Matthew
2    Janet
2    Ron
2    Ellen
2    Stephanie
2    Todd
2    Adrian
2    Valerie
2    Sarah M.
2    Collette
2    Nadir
2    Gloria
2    Leanne
2    Paul
2    Michael
2    Cameron
2    Miriam
2    Ekrem
2    Katie
1    Sarah T.
1    Ryan C.
1    Ben
1    Peter B.
1    Ryan M.
1    Zhiqi
1    Eric
1    Melissa
1    Rachel H.
0    Megan

The fact that another strong favorite won an event means that lots of people are winning points. Only one person remains with a goose egg. Alack and alas for Megan, who was last year's runner-up. She has fallen so far, so fast. While she has not been mathematically eliminated, she needs some serious help. For starters, Beverly Cleary, Kirk Douglas, and Zsa Zsa Gabor could all drop dead soon. It could happen.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Can You Cross Your Toes?

Katie and I had a heated discussion the night before last. We were sitting on the couch watching Jon Stewart when she noticed a large, apparently cancerous growth sticking out of the bottom of my foot. She asked what the big lump in my sock was. "That's my toe," I responded, nonplussed. I had crossed my first and second toes, causing a lump to protrude from the bottom of my sock. Katie was quite alarmed. "You can cross your toes?" "Sure, can't you? Everyone can cross their toes!" "Of course I can't cross my toes. Who can cross their toes?" And I confirmed that Katie could not, in fact, cross her toes. Even manipulating her toes with my fingers, I could not get her toes to stay crossed. She just has very short toes. That led, of course, into a discussion of who was the freak. Were my long, crossable toes abnormal, or were her stubby, uncrossable phalanges the outliers? In case you're confused, here are some pictures. First, of my v

Leagalize drugs!

The Economist has a wonderful editorial this week about legalizing drugs. I wholeheartedly agree that the world will be better off by far if the United States legalized, taxed, and regulated illicit drugs such as cannabis, cocaine, and heroin. The goods that will come from legalization: 1. We will save the $40 billion the US spends trying to eliminate the supply of drugs. 2. We will save the costs involved in incarcerating so many drug offenders (as well as gain their productivity in society). 3. We will gain money through taxation on the legal drug trade. 4. Legalized drugs will be regulated, and thus purer and safer to take. 5. With all these savings, we will have lots of money to spend on treating drug addiction as a public health issue rather than as a law and order issue. We will have lots of money to fund treatment programs for addicts that are ensnared by the easier availability of drugs. 6. We will prevent tens of thousands of killings in countries that produce drugs when proc

2017 Prognostication Quiz FINAL POST: Questions 10 and 11, Stocks and Quakes

In the last post , I pointed out that Matthew D. and I were in a two-way tie at the top of the leaderboard with me holding the edge over him in the tiebreaker. For Matthew D. to have a chance to come from behind and grab the win, some significant December movement would be needed in one of three areas: the stock market, world earthquakes, or a convenient death. Here's what happened: 10. Stocks (December 29) How will stocks do in this first year of Trumponomics? Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be up or down compared to the final close of 2016? Which way will the Dow go? a. Up b. Down The Dow Jones continued to rise throughout the month. I maintained my advantage in the tie-breaker. 11. Earthquake (December 31) How many big earthquakes (magnitude 8.0 or larger on the Richter scale) will there be this year? (Big earthquake counts from this millennium are indicated in parentheses.) How many big earthquakes will there be this year? a. None (2) b. One (7) c. Two (4) d. Th