12. Stocks (December)
What will be the year-end close for the Dow?a. under 10,800
b. 10,800 to 11,600
c. 11,600 to 12,400
d. 12,400 to 13,200
e. 13,200 to 14,000
f. greater than 14,000
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (shown above over the last five trading days of 2012) ended the year at 13,104, an increase of 7.3% over the year. This means that the answer to Question 12 on the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is D.
The last winners of the year: Keila, Megan, Cameron, Grant, Stacey, Gloria, Ben, Todd, Ekrem, Adrian, Zoe, Chris C., Janet, Jason, Ryan, Michael, Leanne, Jeff, Beth, Rachel, Eric, Jan, Craig, Hannah, Liz, Dave, Paul, Ted, Zhiqi, Missy, and Larry.
Leader Board
It was a close one! On the last day of trading, the Dow dipped briefly into Cameron's territory before hovering most of the day in Megan's territory (see the colored bar beneath the Dow Jones graph). Only at the very end of the day, after the outlines of a fiscal cliff deal had been reached, did the Dow creep back into Keila's territory. The deal had not been completely finalized by the end of trading, however, so the bounce was not big enough to get back high enough for Russell to win. It seems more likely, though, that the Dow would have bypassed both Russell and Ellen to get to the point where trading quickly stabilized on Tuesday, January 2, solidly in Sarah M.'s territory. It really was anyone's game, and could have finished anywhere in that 400-point range depending on what Congress was able to do to repair their self-inflicted fiscal cliff.Our winner is Keila, with Megan in the runner-up spot.
8 Keila
8 Megan
8 Cameron
7 Grant
7 Kevin
7 Stacey
7 Gloria
7 Ben
7 Todd
7 Ekrem
6 Adrian
6 Russell
6 Marcus
6 Zoe
6 Ellen
6 Chris C.
6 Janet
6 Sarah M.
6 Jason
6 Ryan
6 Michael
6 Leanne
6 Mary
5 Jeff
5 Beth
5 Rachel
5 Nadir
5 Peter B.
5 Peter M.
5 Eric
5 Jan
5 Craig
5 Sarah T.
5 Hannah
5 Liz
5 Miriam
5 Cherie
5 Pete C.
4 Dave
4 Katie
4 Paul
4 Ted
4 Collette
4 Chris M.
4 Valerie
4 Tom
4 Matthew
3 Zhiqi
3 Missy
2 Larry
2 Tina
Our Winner
Asked for comment, Keila wrote, "What?! No way!!!! This is a joke right!? I know, you meant to send this to another person....right?"
After finally convincing her that I had typed her email address correctly, she wrote, "I can't believe I won the prognostication quiz, I feel so honored! Coming from the bottom of the list on the previous year's quiz, this feels a bit surreal! I want to thank Michael for developing this year around fun quiz and for the bragging rights he bestowed upon me to tease my husband at least for a while (that's priceless!!!).....And I'm so sorry Zsa Zsa, don't take this personally, but I'm picking you again this year....third time's a charm!"
Our Runner-Up
Our runner-up is Megan, friend and neighbor of Eric, who hosted the New Year's Eve party in 2007 that was the start of the Prognostication Quiz. She was winning most of the day on December 31, and for most of the two trading days prior to that, only to have those bastards in Congress finally agree to some legislation and get investors all excited and raise the Dow just out of her reach.
Megan writes, "I'd like to thank The Artist and the New York Times for giving me my first points on the leader board. I knew it would be a good year for me with my love of all things related to the Olympics and presidential politics. Looking forward to the 2013 quiz!"
Honorable Mentions
The top honorable mention goes to Cameron, a perennial Prognostication Quiz powerhouse, who finished in a very close third place. Cameron is the father of Grant, my friend from college. Cameron has prevailed over Grant in three of the four years that they have competed together. Will Cameron finally win it all in 2013?Other internecine rivalries of note: Kevin beat his wife Beth, 7-5. Ben (7) beat his wife Rachel (5) and infant daughter Miriam (5), who did pretty well for having used a random number generator to fill out her entry. Todd (7) beat his wife Mary (6), mother Janet (6), father Jeff (5), brother Jason (6), as well as a variety of cousins (including me), aunts, and uncles. Ekrem (7) somehow beat his wife Leanne (6) despite telling the story BAD ABBA FADED FAST with his answers (although the four answers in ABBA were all winners, and Keila was the only other entrant to sniff that magic out). Adrian extends his winning streak to three years running by edging his husband Craig, 6-5. Russell (6) squeaked out a win over his wife Sarah M. (6) on the tie-break in their first face off. Zoe trounced her husband Ted in their rubber match by a score of 6-4. And lastly, I edged out my wife Katie by a score of 6-4 to take an overall lead of three wins and two losses in our five-year head-to-head match.
Russell, Megan, Marcus, and Cameron each scored 13 points between 2011 and 2012. That ties the record for best two-year score with Matthew (2009-2010) and Ryan (2010-2011).
Top virgin scores go to Jason and Sarah M., who each scored 6 points this year in their Quiz debut. Special kudos to Sarah M. who probably would have won it all if the fiscal cliff bill had passed by the end of trading on December 31st.
Last place is a tie between two of my immediate family members. My sister Tina sacrificed her entire score for the sake of art (as she decided to be entirely blind to what answers she was picking, whereas Ekrem, for example, found a sweet spot where ABBA both played and read well): she told the story "Faced a BAC! Ah, fuck: 0.25." My father Larry had no such excuse: he just picked a few reasonable underdog positions (such as a brokered Republican convention) that didn't come through. On the plus side, he was nearly spot on for picking the final close of the Dow. He off by a mere 12 points, beaten only by Dave (9 points off) for his investment nous. Rounding off the top five in that category were Adrian (27 points off), Jeff (78 points off), and, of course, Keila (96 points off).
Finally, in addition to winning overall, Keila also wins for most improved entrant. She outdid her previous high score by 5 points, having scored 3 in 2010 and 1 in 2011. Todd is second most-improved, as he outdid his previous high score by 4 points, scoring 7 in 2012 compared to 3 in each of the previous two years.
Overall Leader Board
This is the overall leader board for total score over the five years of the quiz (2008-2012), with ties broken in favor of better recent performance (and a six point minimum). Congratulations to Ryan, who has overtaken Matthew this year. Kudos also to Ekrem and Grant who each had solid campaigns. Marcus, Megan, Russell, Cameron, Zoe, et al. have some catching up to do in 2013 (and, perhaps, beyond).23 Ryan
23 Matthew
23 Ekrem
23 Grant
22 Marcus
22 Megan
21 Russell
21 Cameron M.
21 Zoe
20 Adrian
20 Pete C.
19 Gloria
19 Michael
18 Kevin
18 Eric
17 Ellen
17 Rachel H.
17 Katie
17 Missy
17 Liz
16 Leanne
16 Larry
15 Janet
15 Jeff C.
15 Jan
15 Ben
14 Ted
14 Tina
13 Todd
13 Cherie
13 Valerie
13 Peter M.
12 Stacey
12 Keila
12 Beth K.
12 Craig
12 Ron
12 Sarah T.
11 Zhiqi
9 Paul
9 Dave S.
9 Chris C.
9 Mary C.
9 Rachel F.
8 Nadir
8 Rich
8 Stephanie
8 Beth Z.
7 Peter B.
7 Collette
6 Sarah M.
6 Jo
6 Chris M.
6 Jason
6 Janette
6 Pamela
6 Rob
6 Jeremiah
6 Heather
Thanks so much for doing this, and for your amusing and detailed commentaries. We enjoyed 2012's final cliffhanger in particular.
ReplyDeleteWe are anxious to get going on the 2013 PQ. At least Valerie is going to pick Zsa Zsa again, though I do admire her tenacity, and would not want to discourage her perseverance in the face of overwhelming odds.
Cameron M. and Valerie M.