2012 Prognostication Quiz

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 14, 2012.
Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter!

1. Quiz (January)

A repeat of last year’s Question 1 with the added twist that we now know last year’s answers. Will reverse psychology prevail, or reverse-reverse psychology? The number of votes each answer received last year is in parentheses.

What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz?
a. A (7)
b. B (4)
c. C (8)
d. D (7)
e. E (15)
f. F (10)

2. Freedom (January)

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2011 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2010, down two from the previous year. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2011? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (3), 85 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 86 total
c. no change (5), 87 total
d. plus one (3), 88 total
e. plus two or three (2), 89-90 total
f. plus four or more (3), 91 or more total

3. Football (February)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail? (Regular season wins and losses are indicated.)

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the NFC (Green Bay Packers, 15-1)
b. #1 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots, 13-3)
c. #2 seed in the NFC (San Francisco 49ers, 13-3)
d. #2 seed in the AFC (Baltimore Ravens, 12-4)
e. another NFC team
f. another AFC team

4. Film (February)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year? The first three listed seem to be the early favorites according to my brief search.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
a. The Artist
b. The Descendants
c. Hugo
d. The Help
e. Midnight in Paris
f. none of the above: some other film will win

5. Writing (April)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 11 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (4)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (4)
e. another paper will be named the most times (0)

6. Olympics (July)

The 30th summer Olympic games take place in London this year. China won the most gold medals for the first time ever in 2008. Prior to that, the top spot had always gone to either the United States or Russia/U.S.S.R. since 1936. Will China repeat, or will a cold-war superpower regain the upper hand? The number of gold medals won in 2008 is indicated.

Who will win the most gold medals?
a. China (51)
b. United States (36)
c. Russia (23)
d. Any other country (192)

7. GOP (August)

A fractious group is competing for the nomination. Mitt Romney is most likely according to Intrade, with a 75% chance of winning. He has accumulated the most endorsements, but primary voters seem reluctant to trust him.

Who will win the Republican nomination?
a. Mitt Romney
b. Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum
c. a dark horse (anyone else)

8. Peace (October)

For the past 22 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 22 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.)

What word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize?
a. “Democracy” (5)
b. “Rights” (7)
c. Any specific geographical region (6)
d. “International” (5)
e. “Peaceful” (6)
f. None of the above (4)

9. POTUS (November)

The economy is dragging down the incumbent, but the Republicans seem to be having trouble finding a charismatic candidate. Will Obama win a second term, or will the country give a new mandate to a Republican?

Who will be elected President of the United States?
a. Barak Obama
b. the answer from Question 7
c. a dark horse (anyone else)

10. Storms (November)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the past 12 years)? An El nino event is possible this year, which could mean extra hurricanes.

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

11. Events (December)

Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty.

What rare event will happen in 2011?
a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea.
b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan.
c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon.
d. Cuba is removed from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list.
e. A successful WMD terrorist attack occurs anywhere.
f. The Chicago Spire is officially opened.
g. Ben Bernanke stops serving as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
h. Italy receives an EU/IMF bailout of more than €50 billion.
i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions.
j. The Google Lunar X Prize is won.
k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs anywhere.

12. Stocks (December)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 12,200. Will the economy continue to recover, or will the economy slip into another recession in 2012? (Intrade suggests we have a one-in-three chance of another "official" recession this year.)

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 10,800
b. 10,800 to 11,600
c. 11,600 to 12,400
d. 12,400 to 13,200
e. 13,200 to 14,000
f. greater than 14,000

13-15. Death (December)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2012? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through V were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it, while W through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. (This year's birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that 90-year-old John Glenn has an 86% chance of surviving the year while 96-year-old Yizhak Shamir has a 77% chance of seeing 2013. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2012?
a. Yitzhak Shamir, Former Israeli Premier (97)
b. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (96)
c. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (96)
d. Ernest Borgnine, Marty Actor (95)
e. Zsa Zsa Gabor, police-slapping Actress (95)
f. I. M. Pei, Louvre glass pyramid Architect (95)
g. Phyllis Diller, Comedienne (95)
h. Allan Arbus, M*A*S*H Actor (94)
i. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (94)
j. Mike Wallace, 60 Minutes Journalist (94)
k. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist (94)
l. Nelson Mandela, S. Africa Ex-President (94)
m. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (94)
n. Helmut Schmidt, W. German Ex-Chancellor (94)
o. Mikhail Kalashnikov, AK-47 inventor (93)
p. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (93)
q. Sun Myung Moon, leader of the Moonies (92)
r. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (92)
s. Ravi Shankar, The Beatles' sitar instructor (92)
t. John Paul Stevens, US Supreme Court, ret. (92)
u. Ray Bradbury, author of science fiction (92)
v. Mickey Rooney, Boys Town Actor (92)
w. George Shultz, former Secretary of State (92)
x. Prince Philip, husband of Queen Elizabeth (91)
y. Nancy Reagan, former First Lady (91)
z. John Glenn, former astronaut & Senator (91)


For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Name:___________________________________

e-mail:___________________________________