2011 Prognostication Quiz: Winner!

The Final Question

12. Stocks
What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 10,500
b. 10,500 to 11,000
c. 11,000 to 11,500
d. 11,500 to 12,000
e. 12,000 to 12,500
f. greater than 12,500

The Dow Jones index finished at 12,217.56, bringing to a close the 2011 Prognostication Quiz with a final answer of E. 12,000 to 12,500.

This was the most popular answer, and mimics the long-term trend in the Dow Jones index. I hope everyone borrowed heavily and invested in stocks this year.

The E people:
Russell
Jo
Cameron M.
Dave
Ekrem
Michael
Kevin
Claire&Craig
Rachel F.
Grant
Beth
Rachel H.
Tina
Ellen
Zhiqi
Janet
Eric
Peter B.
Chris C.
Nadir

Leader Board

The point for Russell pulls him into a tie with Marcus for first place with seven points. After the tie-breaker, however, Marcus wins by a neck. Here is the final listing with the tie-break incorporated:

1. Marcus (7)
2. Russell (7)
3. Jo (6)
4. Cameron M. (5)
5. Dave (5)
6. Ryan (5)
7. Paul (5)
8. Megan (5)
9. Adrian (5)
10. Stacey (5)
11. Cherie (5)
12. Ekrem (5)
13. Claire&Craig (4)
14. Rachel F. (4)
15. Kevin (4)
16. Michael (4)
17. Grant (4)
18. Lorraine (4)
19. Beth (4)
20. Rachel H. (4)
21. Tina (4)
22. Valerie (4)
23. Jan (4)
24. Jeff (4)
25. Ron (4)
26. Zoe (4)
27. Pete C. (4)
28. Zhiqi (3)
29. Katie (3)
30. Todd (3)
31. Janet (3)
32. Ellen (3)
33. Eric (3)
34. Matthew (3)
35. Gloria (3)
36. Rich (3)
37. Leanne (3)
38. Collette (3)
39. Liz (3)
40. Cameron L. (3)
41. Ted (3)
42. Peter B. (2)
43. Missy (2)
44. Larry (2)
45. Craig (2)
46. Chris C. (2)
47. Sarah (2)
48. Chris M. (2)
49. Nadir (1)
50. Keila (1)
51. Ben (1)

Winner

Although Marcus (my college friend) picked F for question 12, he tells me he made a tactical choice of 12,235 for his tie breaker, since he wanted to be a bit closer to the median with his tie-break. His carefully calculated guess ended up just 17 points away from the actual year-end close for the Dow Jones. That's pretty impressive. (Of the 51 entrants, only Zhiqi came closer, with her tie-break guess of 12,222.) Also impressive was Marcus's predictions of three deaths this year: Harry Morgan, Sherwood Schwartz, and (most impressively), Osama bin Laden.

Marcus has also had a nice run in the last three years. In fact, he is first overall in average score among people who have played at least three out of the four quizzes. (He has averaged 5.3 points per year, edging Zoe, Russell, and Pete C. who have averaged 5.0 points per year.)

Marcus's acceptance speech: "I would like to thank the little people that made this all possible, especially my six-sided die which gave me the right answer to question 1. I'll definitely be using it again in the 2012 contest!"

Runner-up

Russell (my grad school friend) had an impressive year, too, and the Dow spent the entire first day of trading in 2012 in the range where Russell would have won the tie-break (closing the first day at 12,397). That's how close it was. So big kudos to Russell. Like Marcus, Russell predicted the demise of Harry Morgan and Osama bin Laden. Russell also predicted the passing of Zsa-zsa Gabor, who had a leg amputated and spent much of the year in the hospital but refused to die. If only I gave partial credit for loss of a major body part. Zsa-zsa survives into the 2012 Prognostication Quiz.

Russell's concession speech: "Even though I am disappointed, I take my hat off to both Zsa-Zsa and Marcus! But may the latter outlive the former!"

Also-rans

In third place is Jo, who came agonizingly close to becoming the third member of her family in a row to win the Quiz. Her son Matthew D. won two years ago, and her husband Ron won last year. I would normally say this is also an impressive accomplishment since it is her first year taking the quiz, but I'm sure she had lots of coaching from Matthew D. and Ron.

In fourth place is Cameron M., the father of my college friend Grant. Cameron bested his son (17th place) and his wife (22nd place). Cameron beat his family in the same order last year as well.

In fifth place is Dave, my grad school friend and bridge partner. Dave has also become my parenting doppelganger in recent years, as his two children are the precise ages of my two children (within a few weeks each). He placed an impressive second-highest of the newcomers to the quiz, and highest among my bridge partners in the quiz.

In sixth place is Ryan, husband of a high school friend. His high finish is impressive because he finished second in the very close race last year. His score of 13 combined points over the two years is unequaled. (Marcus, Ron, and Russell have 12 points over that span; Cameron M., Rachel H., and Adrian have 10.) Ryan is also the second highest scorer all time in the quiz. (Matthew D. is in first with 19 points; Ryan has 17; Marcus, Ekrem, and Grant have 16.)

In seventh place is Paul, another newcomer. He is the top finisher among the people I know through my wife. (He is the brother of Liz, one of my wife's friends and quiz participant.) I also play fantasy football with him and sometimes attend neuroscience conferences with him.

In eighth place is Megan, one of the twelve original quizsters who have been a part of all four quiz seasons. She is a friend of Eric, who hosted the New Year's party four years ago where the quiz was born. Her finish this year (8th out of 51 entrants) beats her previous top finish of 5th place out of 27 entrants in the inaugural quiz.

In ninth place is Adrian, a college friend. After tying his husband Craig in last year's quiz, Adrian has serious crowing rights this year, besting Craig's score by 150%.

In tenth place is Stacey, a work colleague and another newcomer to the quiz. Stacey is the top finisher among men you probably thought were women. (Jan would be the other one. Adrian gets his share of confusion, too, but his spelling is assuredly masculine.)

In eleventh place is my mother Cherie, the top finisher amongst my relatives in the quiz. This is probably a little embarrassing, since we outnumber Matthew D. and his extended family (including Ron, Jo, Cameron L., and Claire&Craig) by two-to-one, yet in all four years, the top member of his family has beaten the top finisher of my family. Nice try, Mom. We'll get them next year.

In twelfth place is my college friend Ekrem, who assured himself last place among five-point finishers by refusing to provide a tie-break prediction. His creative entry BAD ABBA EAT LEVI'S got off to a very quick start, with four out of the first six questions correct. He faded quickly, though, and only picked up a single point for the final 8 months of the year.

Last Place

Improbably, my cousin Nadir escaped a goose egg for the year by guessing right on the last question. That leaves Rachel H. as the only contestant ever to score zero on a quiz (which she did in 2009). Once he got that precious point, Nadir actually leaped over the other two one-point scorers by outguessing them on the Dow.

Immediately below Nadir is Keila, the wife of Chris C. (who is a colleague of Ekrem's). She beat her husband last year, but must kowtow to him this year. We'll see who prevails in 2012.

In dead last this year is Ben, husband of my grad school friend Rachel F. Ben and Rachel F. are on opposite tracks. Rachel F. has scored 1, 2, and 4 points over the last three years while Ben's scores have been 5, 2, and 1. Presumably we can look for Ben at the bottom again next year, perhaps garnering that coveted goose egg.

Final Word

Thanks to everyone for participating! If you enjoyed yourself, be sure to enter the 2012 Prognostication Quiz, now accepting entries. New entrants are always welcome, so be sure to tell your contest-loving friends to give it a try!