2011 Prognostication Quiz

Entry deadline is 11 p.m. CST on January 10, 2011.
Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter!

1. Quiz (January)

Now in its fourth year, the annual Prognostication Quiz has grown to be an international phenomenon. We'll get the Quiz off to its most rapid start yet with some group psychology.

What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz?
a. A
b. B
c. C
d. D
e. E
f. F

2. Freedom (January)

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2010 report calculated that 89 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2009. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2010? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (2), 87 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 88 total
c. no change (5), 89 total
d. plus one (3), 90 total
e. plus two or three (2), 91-92 total
f. plus four or more (3), 93 or more total

3. Beauty (January)

The Miss America pageant is held in Las Vegas in January. Each contestant must perform a talent en route to the crown. The contestants have been selected and have indicated the talents they will be showcasing (totals in parentheses).

What will Miss America’s listed talent be?
a. Singing (27)
b. Dancing (20)
c. Playing an instrument (6)
d. Ventriloquism (1)

4. Football (February)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail?

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots)
b. #2 seed in the AFC (Pittsburgh Steelers)
c. #1 seed in the NFC (Atlanta Falcons)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (Chicago Bears)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

5. Film (February)

Which picture will win filmdom's highest prize this year? They are listed below in descending odds order according to predictions website Intrade.com, which has the first two as strong co-favorites.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
a. The Social Network
b. The King's Speech
c. True Grit
d. 127 Hours
e. Inception
f. none of the above: some other film will win

6. Writing (April)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 10 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (4)
b. The New York Times (3)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (3)
e. another paper will be named the most times (0)

7. Olympics (July)

Only three cities have bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics. Which city will deliver the winning presentation to the International Olympic Committee?

Which city will host the 2018 Winter Olympics?
a. Annency, France
b. Munich, Germany
c. Pyeongchang, South Korea

8. Golf (August)

Tiger Woods has won 14 Major Championships in the past 14 years, but he has not won any in the past two years. Will he ever win again? Or is he washed up? Pick only one answer. (Ties are possible.)

Which Major Championship will Tiger win?
a. the Masters in April (4)
b. the US Open in June (3)
c. the British Open in July (3)
d. the PGA Championship in August (4)
e. Tiger will win no Championships

9. Peace (October)

For the past 21 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 21 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.)

What key word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize?
a. “Democracy” (5)
b. “Rights” (6)
c. Any specific geographical region (6)
d. “International” (5)
e. “Peaceful” (6)
f. None of the above (4)

10. Storms (November)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were twelve hurricanes in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the last 12 years)?

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

11. Events (December)

Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty.

What rare event will happen in 2011?
a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea.
b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan.
c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon.
d. Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test.
e. Osama bin Laden is captured or neutralized.
f. An internationally recognized Palestinian state is established.
g. The United Kingdom announces its intention to join the euro.
h. Any country announces its intention to drop the euro.
i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions.
j. BP files for bankruptcy in the US.
k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs.
l. Higgs-Boson particle is observed to a confidence of five sigma.

12. Stocks (December)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 11,500. Will the economy continue to recover, or will one of the events from the previous question lead to global economic instability and falling markets? (Note in particular that creation of Higgs-Boson particles may create a black hole that swallows the earth.)

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 10,500
b. 10,500 to 11,000
c. 11,000 to 11,500
d. 11,500 to 12,000
e. 12,000 to 12,500
f. greater than 12,500

13-15. Death (December)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2011? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through Q were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it, while R through Z provide fresh, young faces to this year's list. (This year's birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that 90-year-old Mickey Rooney has an 86% chance of surviving the year while 95-year-old Harry Morgan has a 77% chance of seeing 2012. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2011?
a. Harry Morgan, M*A*S*H Actor (96)
b. Yitzhak Shamir, Former Israeli Premier (96)
c. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (95)
d. Sherwood Schwartz, Brady Bunch Producer (95)
e. Kirk Douglas, Spartacus Actor (95)
f. Ernest Borgnine, Marty Actor (94)
g. Zsa Zsa Gabor, police-slapping Actress (94)
h. I. M. Pei, Louvre glass pyramid Architect (94)
i. Phyllis Diller, Comedienne (94)
j. Allan Arbus, M*A*S*H Actor (93)
k. Bobby Doerr, Red Sox Second Baseman (93)
l. Betty Ford, Former US First Lady (93)
m. Mike Wallace, 60 Minutes Journalist (93)
n. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist (93)
o. Nelson Mandela, S. Africa Ex-President (93)
p. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (93)
q. Helmut Schmidt, W. German Ex-Chancellor (93)
r. Andy Rooney, 60 Minutes Journalist (92)
s. Mikhail Kalashnikov, AK-47 inventor (92)
t. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (92)
u. Sun Myung Moon, leader of the Moonies (91)
v. Henry Heimlich, you know his maneuver (91)
w. Ravi Shankar, The Beatles' sitar instructor (91)
x. John Paul Stevens, US Supreme Court, ret. (91)
y. Ray Bradbury, author of science fiction (91)
z. Mickey Rooney, Boys Town Actor (91)


For a tie-breaker: Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Name:___________________________________

e-mail:___________________________________