Question 12: Stocks
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year at 11,577.51. We started the year at 10,428, so the Dow has gained 11% as the economy has clawed its way out of recession. That means that the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is over. The answer to Question 12 (What will be the year-end close for the Dow?) is F. Greater than 11,500.The Super-Bulls:
Ryan
Gloria
Marcus
Ellen
Grant
Cherie
Rachel F.
Jeff
Peter
Ellen was the closest of all with her tie-break prediction that the Dow would end at 11,543 (off by 34.5 points). Rachel F. was second with her guess of 11,521 (off by 56.5 points). On the other end of the spectrum, Janette visualized a doomsday scenario where all thirty components of the Dow simultaneously went belly-up on December 31, plunging the index to zero. Either that or she just forgot to submit a tie-break answer.
Ryan correctly predicted that the Dow would have a banner year. With his correct stocks prediction, Ryan joins Ron again at the top of the leader board with eight points.
With the score tied at the end of regulation, we go to the tie breaking procedure. Ron was a bit more bearish than Ryan and guessed the Dow would end the year at 11,316. Ryan was was much more bullish, guessing 11,940 for the final close. The actual close of 11,577.5 means Ron missed by 261.5 while Ryan missed by 362.5. Ryan just couldn't get the final push he needed from the market. He needed the Dow to close at 11,628 or higher to defeat Ron. Ryan got agonizingly close, as the Dow rose to 11,625 mid-day on Wednesday (see graph above, clicking to zoom if desired), just 3 measly points away from pay dirt.
Our Winner!
The winner of the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is Ron, pictured here toasting his brilliant success. Ron is the father of Matthew, last year's winner. Ron is our first entrant from South Africa, and while I have never had the honor of meeting him, I have heard nothing but good things about him (assuming that "insufferable since winning the Quiz" is good). Ron correctly predicted the Freedom House report, the Oscar winner, the Pulitzer prizes, Tiger's collapse, and the Nobel Peace Prize, along with the demise of Gloria Stuart and Mitch Miller.Our Runner-up
Ryan started the 2010 prognostication on a crazy hot streak, answering the first four questions correctly (Freedom House, Miss America, the Super Bowl, and the Academy Awards), jumping out to an unprecedented two-point lead. He stayed atop the leader board until November (advancing with the retreat of Mitch Miller, Barbara Billingsly, and Tiger Woods), when Ron passed him on the hurricane question. His comeback to tie on December 31 only to lose in the tie-break is certainly heartbreaking. And unlike Ron, Ryan will need to wait a while before his progeny (pictured above) can enter his first Prognostication Quiz.Leader Board
In addition to Ron and Ryan, special kudos go to Gloria, Larry, and Missy, who round out the top 10%.Gloria (like Matthew) is a friend of mine from my days as a competitive tournament bridge player. She had a great run in the second half of the Quiz starting with a two-point August predicting the downfalls of Tiger Woods and Mitch Miller.
Larry is my father and Missy is one of my sisters. (My other sister is Tina, but you will have to scroll way down on the list to find her name.) We played a lot of games in our family, which explains a lot to those of you who know us well. (My dad and sisters were my original foursome when Dad taught us bridge long, long ago when my sisters and I were in grade school.)
Rachel H. is the top finisher among my college friends, which is impressive for two reasons: first, she scored zero points last year, an impressive feat that has not happened previously or since. Second, she was so frustrated at her goose egg last year that she blew a raspberry with her answers this year: bbbbbbbbbbbb. It did pretty well for her! I already have answers from her for the 2011 Prognostication Quiz, and I'm sad to see that she has put thought into her answers again, which probably means she'll be blanked once more.
The top finisher from my extended family is my aunt Janet, who was also coming off of a poor performance in 2009, though not as poor as Rachel H. Janet has been a big cheerleader in recruiting others of my extended family members. We need 53 entrants in order to continue growing. Perhaps more of the 60+ cousins I have on my father's side want to play this year!
Peter II was the top finisher from my high school friends. Okay, he was the only finisher of my high school friends, but he still did very well considering that, like Rachel H., he submitted an artistic answer for the first quiz of the new decade: FACED DECADE ANEW, where the first 12 letters were A-F and the last three were anything. Those last three "anything" letters turned out huge for him: Peter's entry was the only one to score three points on deaths this year, correctly asserting that Barbara Billingsly, Lena Horne, and Bob Feller would hit the dust.
Craig and Adrian are not the top finishers among my college friends, but since they are also married to each other, I thought it especially felicitous that they should end up finishing so close together. Not only did they each get 5 points, but they were also eerily close in their tie-breakers: Adrian guessed 11,324 while Craig guessed 11,311.
Rounding off the top dozen are Zoe (top finisher amongst my wife's friends) and Russell (top finisher among my grad school friends).
The final standings:
1. Ron (8)
2. Ryan (8)
3. Gloria (6)
4. Larry (6)
5. Missy (6)
6. Rachel H. (6)
7. Janet (5)
8. Peter II (5)
9. Adrian (5)
10. Craig (5)
11. Zoe (5)
12. Russell (5)
13. Rich (5)
14. Matthew (5)
15. Cameron (5)
16. Marcus (5)
17. Janette (5)
18. Ellen (4)
19. Katie (4)
20. Carol (4)
21. Valerie (4)
22. Grant (4)
23. Rachel F. (3)
24. Keila (3)
25. Topher (3)
26. Polly (3)
27. Beth K. (3)
28. Eric (3)
29. Michael A. (3)
30. Beth Z. (3)
31. Cherie (3)
32. Todd (3)
33. Leanne (3)
34. Kevin (3)
35. Liz (3)
36. Stephanie (3)
37. Megan (3)
38. Pamela (3)
39. Ekrem (3)
40. Mary C. (3)
41. Chris C. (2)
42. Peter (2)
43. Ben (2)
44. Nad (2)
45. Sarah (2)
46. Mary A. (2)
47. Jan (2)
48. Jeff (2)
49. Zhiqi (2)
50. Christopher T. (1)
51. Tina (1)
52. Mike F. (1)
Despite the "untimely" death of Miep Gies and "pop" being considered as "some VERY SPECIAL variety of vocal" the insufferable father has prevailed! Commiserations to Ryan on the tie-break. The finish was closer than this years Ryder Cup. I had a tense wait until midnight in South Africa waiting for new York to close!
ReplyDeleteThanks for a great competition. I hope to be able to demonstrate more staying power than Matthew this year!
Ron