2013 Prognostication Quiz: Question 1, Freedom

1. Freedom (January)

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2012 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2011. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2012? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. Note: the ten worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Antigua and Barbuda, Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best "partly free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Ecuador, Lesotho, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Tonga, and Turkey.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (3), 85 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 86 total
c. no change (6), 87 total
d. plus one (3), 88 total
e. plus two or three (2), 89-90 total
f. plus four or more (3), 91 or more total

According to Freedom House, the number of "free" countries increased to 90 in 2012, despite a broader reduction in democracy scores overall. This means that the opening question in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is e. plus two or three.

From the Freedom House press report: "Four countries moved from Partly Free to Free: Lesotho, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Tonga. . . . Mali fell two tiers, from Free to Not Free." Mali's fall from grace could have been predicted, as it suffered a coup in March (pictured above on the left, coup leader Amadou Haya Sanogo). The advance of the four African countries into the "free" category was more incremental and harder to predict, at least by me. I picked "plus one," figuring that in addition to the African countries, the three European countries on the "close to free" list are progressing with reforms with the eventual goal of achieving EU membership.

Grant (who always sends in his detailed analysis of the Quiz questions along with his entry) noted, "The number of free countries hasn't increased in six years, but I'm going to bet on some improvement this year. . . . As an aside, it's interesting how the volatility of the ratings has decreased over the last few decades. The numbers used to swing by several countries every year, but it's been quite a while since the number of free countries changed by more than two year-on-year. I suspect that's mostly to do with increasing conservatism at Freedom House rather than any real phenomenon." I guess Freedom House showed him who's conservative.

Grant and I were not alone in thinking "plus two or three" to be an underdog proposition: only six people chose to answer E. Kudos to the six entrants who thought this would be such a good year for free countries:

The Africa Optimists
Chris M.
Janet
Liz
Pete C.
Mary
Cameron

13-15. Death (All Year)

Pauline Phillips, more widely known by her nom du guerre "Dear Abby," passed away this week, and everyone who chose g. Abigail van Buren, Advice Columnist scores an early point. Phillips had been living just down the road in Minnetonka, Minnesota, surrounded by family as she struggled with Alzheimer's.

Only four people picked our eighth-oldest nonagenarian to pass on this year. Compare to the 18 who picked ninth-oldest h. Nelson Mandela or the 17 who picked tenth-oldest i. Billy Graham. The only other two selections with double-digit support were stroke survivor b. Kirk Douglas (20 selections) and amputee c. Zsa Zsa Gabor (23 selections).


The Columnist Pessimists
Chris M.
Dave
Ellen
Grant

Leaderboard

Congratulations to Chris M., who has outpaced everyone to take the early lead, with a perfect score through two events. We have 46 entrants this year, down slightly from our all-time high of 53 last year. I am sure that you are, like me, sad to see them go but happy to see your odds of winning the deluxe gift bag increase.

2    Chris M.
1    Janet
1    Dave
1    Ellen
1    Liz
1    Grant
1    Pete C.
1    Mary
1    Cameron
0    Sarah T.
0    Jeff
0    Marcus
0    Ryan C.
0    Rachel
0    Russell
0    Matthew
0    Jan
0    Ron
0    Stephanie
0    Ben
0    Todd
0    Megan
0    Peter B.
0    Ryan M.
0    Adrian
0    Zhiqi
0    Valerie
0    Sarah M.
0    Chris C.
0    Collette
0    Keila
0    Eric
0    Nadir
0    Gloria
0    Leanne
0    Paul
0    Michael
0    Tina
0    Stacey
0    Larry
0    Melissa
0    Rachel
0    Miriam
0    Ekrem 1
0    Ekrem 2
0    Katie

A reminder that ties in the Leaderboard are broken by projecting the current Dow Jones Industrial Average to the end of the year and using everyone's guess on the tie-break answer. Since the market has been up this month, this effectively means that people with equal scores are listed in reverse order of their Dow Jones predictions.

Looking ahead, Chris M. is a vulnerable leader. He has picked the underdog position on the Groundhog question, and his team has already been eliminated from the football playoffs. Janet, Dave, Ellen, Grant, Pete C., and Mary can pull into a tie if the groundhog sees six more weeks of winter, and Ellen (Falcons), Pete C. (Ravens), and Mary (Patriots) can even pull ahead if their team also win the Super Bowl.