2015 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 9 and 10, Storms and Vetoes

9. Storms (November 30)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were six hurricanes in 2014, a paltry two in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, and an all-time record fifteen in 2005.
  
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more

It was a slow year for hurricanes, vetoes, and deaths in 2015. Though we inched toward answer B (which was my personal choice), we ended the season with just 4 hurricanes, meaning the answer to Question 9 of the 2015 Prognostication Quiz is A. 4 or less. 

Grant M.

Chris M.

Miriam S.

Todd C.

10. Vetoes (December 31)

In his first six years of his Presidency, Barack Obama has vetoed precisely two bills. How will that change in the upcoming 114th Congress, with Republican majorities in both houses? Up to now, Obama has not had to deal with most bills passed by the Republican House because the Democratic Senate did not bring them to a vote. Will Senate Democrats filibuster bills that come for a vote in the Senate after passing the House, or will they simply let the President veto them?  The all-time record for a single Congressional term is Grover Cleveland's 212 vetoes in the 50th U.S. Congress (1887 - 1889). Can Barack reach triple digits in the first year of his attempt to break Grover's record?

How many vetoes will Obama make in 2015?
a. 20 or fewer
b. 21 - 40
c. 41 - 60
d. 61 - 80
e. 81 - 100
f. over 100

Grant M.

Dave S.

Marcus S.

Ron D.

Peter B.

Chris M.

Rachel H.

Russell V.

Sarah M.

Stephanie A.

Cameron M.

Todd C.

Sarah S.

Sarah T.

Jenny A.

Ekrem S.

The threat of filibuster in the Senate kept the Republicans from trying to send hopeless bills to the President, so Obama has only vetoed 7 bills so far this year. Barring some strange things in the next 11 days, the answer to Question 10 is A. 20 or fewer.

I'm noticing now that I made the embarrassing faux pas of saying "4 or less" in the last question instead of "or fewer" that I used in this question. That would have snarky portions of the internets up in arms. Thank you all for biting your tongues this year rather than heaping criticism upon my solecism.

13-15. Death (All Year)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2015?

g. Helmut Schmidt, former West German Chancellor (97)

 It has been a good year for nonagenarians. We have only just had our first death of the year. Helmut Schmidt, Chancellor of West Germany from 1976 - 1982, passed away in November.

Herr Schmidt was not a popular choice. Perhaps most thought that his German engineering would get him to 100. Alas, no. Special kudos to the three who have picked the ONLY death of 2015, with only 11 days left to go.

Dave S.

Cameron M.

Ellen Y.

Leader board

It is crazy at the top of the leader board. Right now it is a seven-way tie for first place. Special kudos to Dave S. and Grant M., who each scored 2 out of 3 points this month to rocket up into the tie.

The tie-breaker right now belongs to Janet C., so she will be the winner if the Dow Jones and Bitcoin prices stay about where they are. The Dow Jones is at 17,129 right now, which would be answer C. Janet is the only one in the 7-way tie picking C. The only way Janet can be threatened if the Dow Jones stays in C territory is if the Bitcoin price also drops back down below $400. In that case, Russell V. would catapult into a tie with Janet at 7 points, and it would come down to the final tiebreaker, for which Janet has picked 16,763 and Russell has picked 16,801.

If the Dow Jones has a bit of a bear run to push into B territory, that would benefit Peter B. No one atop the leader board picked B, so Peter B. would win based on picking the correct Bitcoin range, as he is the only one in the 7-way tie to pick the correct Bitcoin range of E.

If the Dow Jones has a bit of a bull run to push into D territory, Dave S. or Gloria T. would be the likely beneficiary. They each picked D with final tiebreaker guesses of 17,643 and 17,800 respectively. So either could win depending on how high the Dow Jones gets on December 31.

Those are the most likely winning scenarios, barring a two-zone rise or drop from the Dow Jones or Bitcoin or a last-minute death.

Rank	Score	Name
1	6	Janet C.
2	6	Peter B.
3	6	Dave S.
4	6	Gloria T.
5	6	Marcus S.
6	6	Grant M.
7	6	Ron D.
8	5	Rachel H.
9	5	Stephanie A.
10	5	Russell V.
11	5	Sarah M.
12	5	Chris M.
13	5	Missy A.
14	5	Michael A.
15	4	Cameron M.
16	4	Ellen Y.
17	4	Nadir Y.
18	4	Zhiqi Q.
19	4	Keila B.
20	4	Eric M.
21	4	Megan T.
22	4	Nicole C.
23	4	Miriam S.
24	3	Adam K.
25	3	Jeff T.
26	3	Larry A.
27	3	Stacey C.
28	3	Jeff C.
29	3	Jan M.
30	3	Todd C.
31	3	Matthew D.
32	3	Dawn K.
33	3	Chris C.
34	3	Jenny A.
35	3	Ben S.
36	3	Sarah T.
37	3	Sarah S.
38	2	Jason C.
39	2	Rachel F.
40	2	Valerie M.
41	2	Pamela C.
42	2	Ekrem S.
43	1	Mary A.
44	1	Kevin K.