J. Michael Andresen

2. Groundhog (February 2) Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. (He has declined repeated invitations to join the Prognostication Quiz.) On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each (since 1887) is indicated in parentheses. What will Punxatawney Phil see? a. His shadow (100) b. No shadow (15) Punxatawney Phil looked around earlier this month and saw no trace of shadow, indicating that we will have an early spring. That means the answer to Question 2 in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is B. Ten of the 46 entrants (22%) correctly guessed that we were going to have an early winter this year. This is much higher than the 13% rate at which Phil has predicted an early spring since 1887. Did these folk check if human prognosticators predicted an early spring? No, the Farmer's...

1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2012 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2011. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2012? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. Note: the ten worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Antigua and Barbuda, Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best "partly free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Ecuador, Lesotho, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Tonga, and Turkey. How will the number of free coun...

12. Stocks (December) What will be the year-end close for the Dow? a. under 10,800 b. 10,800 to 11,600 c. 11,600 to 12,400 d. 12,400 to 13,200 e. 13,200 to 14,000 f. greater than 14,000 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (shown above over the last five trading days of 2012) ended the year at 13,104, an increase of 7.3% over the year. This means that the answer to Question 12 on the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is D .  The last winners of the year: Keila, Megan, Cameron, Grant, Stacey, Gloria, Ben, Todd, Ekrem, Adrian, Zoe, Chris C., Janet, Jason, Ryan, Michael, Leanne, Jeff, Beth, Rachel, Eric, Jan, Craig, Hannah, Liz, Dave, Paul, Ted, Zhiqi, Missy, and Larry. Leader Board It was a close one! On the last day of trading, the Dow dipped briefly into Cameron's territory before hovering most of the day in Megan's territory (see the colored bar beneath the Dow Jones graph). Only at the very end of the day, after the outlines of a fiscal cliff deal had been reached, did...

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 12, 2013 . Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com. Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter. The winner receives a deluxe gift bag. Happy guessing! 1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2012 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2011. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2012? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. Note: the ten worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Antigua and Barbuda, Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best "partly free" countries (with the hi...

Ravi Shankar, perhaps the best-known contemporary Indian musician , passed away yesterday. This means that (s) Ravi Shankar is now a correct answer to Question 13 - 15 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz . This was very surprising to everyone in the Prognostication Quiz, since nearly everyone expected him to survive another three weeks to see 2013. Only one person thought that Shankar might pass on this year: The sitar hater: Ekrem I also get the feeling that Ekrem did not really want to pick Shankar. Rather, he needed an answer S near the end to get his prizewinning entry "BAD ABBA FADED FAST" to come out correctly. Although this small victory pulls Ekrem up into the tie for second place, he still has nearly no chance of winning overall. For his tie-break, he predicted that the Dow will fall 99.1% from its current position to close the year at 116. Even if we fall off the fiscal cliff and break our fical neck, I really don't see that happening. The summ...

9. POTUS (November) Who will be elected President of the United States? a. Barack Obama b. The Republican Nominee c. a dark horse (anyone else) After hundreds of millions of dollars spent, Barack Obama won a convincing victory in the U.S. Presidential Election earlier this month. Eighty percent of Quiz entrants picked him to win reeelection. Those who picked the underdog had very reasonable odds for their bets (very few thought that Obama's actual chances were that high, even at the very end), but they lost anyway. The Obamaniacs: Keila Megan Cameron Kevin Grant Marcus Ellen Stacey Gloria Todd Sarah M. Peter B. Ryan Nadir Russell Sarah T. Zoe Janet Jason Cherie Michael Ben Leanne Pete C. Ekrem Chris C. Rachel Collette Katie Jeff Adrian Beth Eric Jan Craig Hannah Liz Dave Ted Valerie Paul 10. Storms (November) Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, t...

8. Peace (October) For the past 22 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. Certain key words appear surprisingly frequently in this paragraph. Total appearances over the 22 years of each word below is indicated in parentheses. (More than one correct answer is possible.) What word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize? a. “Democracy” (5) b. “Rights” (7) c. Any specific geographical region (6) d. “International” (5) e. “Peaceful” (6) f. None of the above (4) And the award goes to . . . The European Union. The 2012 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the EU "for over six decades contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe". The European Union is a teeming mass of people slowly integrating since 1951. That many people over that much time can get a lot of things done, so it's no surprise that The Quiz ...