In the last post, I pointed out that Matthew D. and I were in a two-way tie at the top of the leaderboard with me holding the edge over him in the tiebreaker. For Matthew D. to have a chance to come from behind and grab the win, some significant December movement would be needed in one of three areas: the stock market, world earthquakes, or a convenient death. Here's what happened:
Which way will the Dow go?
a. Up
b. Down
The Dow Jones continued to rise throughout the month. I maintained my advantage in the tie-breaker.
How many big earthquakes will there be this year?
a. None (2)
b. One (7)
c. Two (4)
d. Three or more (1)
No last-minute huge earthquakes. We remained at 1 and I maintained my edge.
Who will not survive 2017?
e. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (99)
The biggest potential wrench in the works is always the death question! Anyone the chance to suddenly gain a point at the very last minute. When I saw that Billy Graham had passed, I knew that I hadn't chosen him. I didn't remember whether Matthew D. had. I knew it was a popular choice, so it certainly seemed possible. I got to the computer and frantically looked to see . . . that Matthew D. had, in fact, picked Billy Graham to pass away this year.
That gave Matthew D. the victory, overcoming my nine points with his ten. What a dolorous day.
Graham crackers (get it? like his head...)
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I am humbled to be the 2017 Prognostication Quiz winner. I'll keep this part short, as it would certainly be unseemly to brag too much right now. That's in part because I've been bragging for the last three posts or so. I'll just say it has been a long way since I finished dead last (!) in the first Quiz, way back in 2008.
The runner-up Matthew D. is a perennial Quiz strongman, and this year's tie at the top is a fitting ending for his final entry in the 10-year series. He knew Bobby Doerr was going to pass away, and he almost sniffed out Billy Graham as well, but his nose was off by 52 days. Matthew D. can also let me win once, already: he won both the 2009 and 2013 Quizzes. This accomplishment will certainly never be matched unless, of course, I come out of Quizmaster retirement.
We had a strong five-way tie at 8 points for 3rd place:
Ben S. gets actual 3rd place due to his stunningly accurate prediction on the Dow Jones. (See far below for more detail.) Ben S. also picked Billy Graham, and he would have ended up in second place if Billy Graham hadn't held on those 52 days.
Perennial Quiz strongman Marcus S. finished in 5th place, falling just short of his quest to win a second title. He won it all in the 2011 Quiz.
Another perennial Quiz strongman, Grant M. finished in 4th place after a great effort this year. His crowning achievement was being the only person to pick Neil Gorsuch from the list of candidates in Question 12, SCOTUS.
Cameron M. (father of Grant M.) finished in 6th place. He came very close to winning but ends up one win shy of two other parental units of parent-child Quiz rivalries: Ron D. (father of Matthew D) won the Quiz in 2010, and Janet C. (mother of Jason C. and Todd C.) won it all in 2015.
Stacey C. finished in 7th place, falling just short of his quest to win a second title in back-to-back years. He won it all last year in the 2016 Quiz.
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10. Stocks (December 29)
How will stocks do in this first year of Trumponomics? Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be up or down compared to the final close of 2016?Which way will the Dow go?
a. Up
b. Down
The Dow Jones continued to rise throughout the month. I maintained my advantage in the tie-breaker.
11. Earthquake (December 31)
How many big earthquakes (magnitude 8.0 or larger on the Richter scale) will there be this year? (Big earthquake counts from this millennium are indicated in parentheses.)How many big earthquakes will there be this year?
a. None (2)
b. One (7)
c. Two (4)
d. Three or more (1)
No last-minute huge earthquakes. We remained at 1 and I maintained my edge.
13-15. Death (December 31)
Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2017? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through U have been re-upped from last year's quiz. V through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. The 2017 birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 99-year-old has a 74% chance of lasting 12 months. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again. PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!Who will not survive 2017?
e. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (99)
The biggest potential wrench in the works is always the death question! Anyone the chance to suddenly gain a point at the very last minute. When I saw that Billy Graham had passed, I knew that I hadn't chosen him. I didn't remember whether Matthew D. had. I knew it was a popular choice, so it certainly seemed possible. I got to the computer and frantically looked to see . . . that Matthew D. had, in fact, picked Billy Graham to pass away this year.
That gave Matthew D. the victory, overcoming my nine points with his ten. What a dolorous day.
Graham crackers (get it? like his head...)
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Leaderboard
Wait a minute. Matthew picked Billy Graham to die last year, in 2017. Billy Graham waited until February of this year to pass away, thumbing his nose strongly in Matthew D.'s general direction. I kept the lead and won the final Prognostication Quiz! Thank you for letting me win Billy Graham! I believe in your power!I am humbled to be the 2017 Prognostication Quiz winner. I'll keep this part short, as it would certainly be unseemly to brag too much right now. That's in part because I've been bragging for the last three posts or so. I'll just say it has been a long way since I finished dead last (!) in the first Quiz, way back in 2008.
The runner-up Matthew D. is a perennial Quiz strongman, and this year's tie at the top is a fitting ending for his final entry in the 10-year series. He knew Bobby Doerr was going to pass away, and he almost sniffed out Billy Graham as well, but his nose was off by 52 days. Matthew D. can also let me win once, already: he won both the 2009 and 2013 Quizzes. This accomplishment will certainly never be matched unless, of course, I come out of Quizmaster retirement.
We had a strong five-way tie at 8 points for 3rd place:
Ben S. gets actual 3rd place due to his stunningly accurate prediction on the Dow Jones. (See far below for more detail.) Ben S. also picked Billy Graham, and he would have ended up in second place if Billy Graham hadn't held on those 52 days.
Perennial Quiz strongman Marcus S. finished in 5th place, falling just short of his quest to win a second title. He won it all in the 2011 Quiz.
Another perennial Quiz strongman, Grant M. finished in 4th place after a great effort this year. His crowning achievement was being the only person to pick Neil Gorsuch from the list of candidates in Question 12, SCOTUS.
Cameron M. (father of Grant M.) finished in 6th place. He came very close to winning but ends up one win shy of two other parental units of parent-child Quiz rivalries: Ron D. (father of Matthew D) won the Quiz in 2010, and Janet C. (mother of Jason C. and Todd C.) won it all in 2015.
Stacey C. finished in 7th place, falling just short of his quest to win a second title in back-to-back years. He won it all last year in the 2016 Quiz.
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As an added bonus, here are everyone's guesses to every question. At the top are question names and numbers. Right below them are the answers in blue. Below that are everyone's guesses. Death guesses are in yellow to differentiate from the first 12.
Matthew D. and I submitted the same answer on 10 of the first 12 questions. The difference on the Pulitzer Prize question turned out to be the difference maker. You can also see the crazily narrow gap that separated Matthew D. and me in the Dow Jones tiebreaker. Despite being close to each other, however, we were not very close to the final year-end close: over 3,200 points away. No one really saw that big bull market coming.
No one, that is, except Ben S., who came shockingly close, just 118 points away from the genuine close of 24,719.22! That's just 2.5% of the 4800-point rise the Dow saw this year. I hope he mortgaged his house and family in order to get more money to put into the stock market.
The worst guess on the Dow was Missy A., who succeeded in coming last in the Quiz and almost succeeded with a score of zero. She got an [expletive deleted] point thanks to the [expletive deleted] groundhog.
Jason C. and Jan M. were the only ones this year to submit a set of answers with more structure than imposed just by the Quiz. Jason C. wrote what I took to be a very boring song form going back and forth between verse and refrain seven times before finally hitting the bridge at the very end. (I was expecting C instead of D, but whatever.) In the meantime, Jan M. ended up screaming the entire year while wishing death after death on the Internal Revenue Service.
Liz K. did not like the choices for death, so she chose three "old people" that she new more about. Sadly, none of them died this year, and she got no points in Questions 13 - 15.
Congratulations to everyone and thanks for a fun final Quiz!
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