2017 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 7 and 9, Kenya and Storms

Before I get to the Questions, I have an announcement to make. After 10 years of writing and running the Prognostication Quiz, I have decided to hang up my boots. I was able to manage the time commitment of Quiz plus wife, two kids, and a regular job, but now that I am at a start-up, I have had much less time for writing. You may have noticed my posts have become increasingly short and unfunny. I'll spare everyone the agony next year.

If anyone else wants to try writing their own periodic game/quiz/contest, I would eagerly join and also let the rest of the Quiz contestants know an alternate exists to help ease their Prognostication Quiz withdrawal.

7. Kenya

Kenya has a fragile democracy with a history of tribal violence surrounding elections. Right now, the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta is widely expected to win re-election over his 2013 opponent Raila Odinga.

Who will be the next President of Kenya?
a. Uhuru Kenyatta (incumbent, Jubilee Coalition)
b. Raila Odinga (CORD)
c. someone else will win the election, or the election will be canceled or postponed beyond 2017

Well, Kenyatta finally won the presidency after his continuing skulduggery caused Raila Odinga to withdraw from the second election. Sad to say, Kenya remains quite fraught. The answer to Question 7 of the 2017 Prognostication Quiz is C.

Most entrants placed their bets on the incumbent winning the election, by whatever means necessary.

The Conservatives

Michael A.

Matthew D.

Grant M.

Cameron M.

Ben S.

Marcus S.

Stacey C.

Stephanie A.

Chris C.

Sarah T.

Stuart P.

Megan J.

Nadir Y.

Janet C.

Rachel H.

Keila B.

Chris M.

John E.

Jeff C.

Ryan M.

Jason C.

Leanne S.

Eric M.

Rachel F.

Jenny A.

Ellen Y.

Collette T.

Jan M.

Paul K.

Pamela C.

Ekrem S.

Liz K.

Peter M.

Katie M.

9. Storms (November 30)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were four hurricanes in 2016, six in 2014, a paltry two in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, and an all-time record fifteen in 2005.  How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be?a. 3 or lessb. 4-5c. 6-7d. 8-10e. 11 or more

Hurricane season officially ended at the end of November. It was a busy season, with 17 named storms, ten of which turned into hurricanes. Oddly, all ten hurricanes happened in a row, with no simple tropical storms to break the monotony. This was the fifth-most active season since records began in 1851. It is also one of only six seasons during that time that featured two category 5 hurricanes. The final hurricane also set the all-time record for eastward travel, reaching all the way to the British Isles.

Ten hurricanes means the answer to Question 9 of the 2017 Prognostication Quiz is D. 

The dark and stormies

Michael A.

Matthew D.

Grant M.

Cameron M.

Ben S.

Chris C.

Megan J.

Nadir Y.

Keila B.

Ron D.

Valerie M.

13-15. Death (December 31)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2017? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through U have been re-upped from last year's quiz. V through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. The 2017 birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 99-year-old has a 74% chance of lasting 12 months. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again. PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2017?
d. Bobby Doerr, Hall of Fame Red Sox Second Baseman (99)

Hall-of-famer Red Sox second-baseman Bobby Doerr is our second death of the year, joining Joseph Wapner. As a 99-year-old, he was a popular pick. His demise means Cardinals second-baseman Red Schoendienst is now the oldest living baseball hall-of-famer at a sprightly 94. The fact that the oldest living hall-of-famer is always a second-baseman is due to the excellent health that is always required in that position.

The Red Sox fans

Matthew D.

Grant M.

Marcus S.

Cameron M.

Stacey C.

Stephanie A.

Ryan M.

Jason C.

Leaderboard

Your fearless Quizmeister was all alone in the lead last time, but now with Doerr pushing up daisies, the situation at the top has become more complicated. Matthew D., Grant M., and Cameron M. have joined me at the top with 7 points. Miraculously, I am still beating these three on the Dow Jones tiebreaker, and thus am still (shakily) in first. Matthew D. is right behind me with a guess that the Dow would be around 21,475. I just barely surpassed him with my guess of 21,498. (We are so close that I suspect Matthew D. followed my same strategy of taking the year's starting Dow Jones and adding the long-term growth rate for stocks of 7% plus inflation.) The Dow has far surpassed either of us, rising to the monstrous level 24,211. Luckily, this means that I will maintain the tiebreaker edge unless the tax bill fails and the Dow crashes to below 21,486.5.

Looking forward a bit, the remaining Questions are 10. Stocks and 11. Earthquakes. Matthew D. and I both picked A. stocks will go up and B. one hurricane at least 8.0 on the Richter scale. Grant M. guessed B. stocks will go down and Cameron M. guessed C. there will be two earthquakes. If the year ended today, then, I would have 9 points and beat Matthew with the same, while Grant M. and Cameron M. would slip into a five-way tie for third at 8 points, along with Ben S., Marcus S., and Stacey C.

While the Dow seems relatively safe for me, other things might still challenge my lead. One or more of a late hurricane, another earthquake, and the death of Kirk Douglas, I.M. Pei, Billy Graham, Prince Philip, Bob Dole, Jimmy Carter, or Jerry Lewis might do the trick. Kim Jong-Un might bomb the White House, too, which would probably cause the Dow to drop far enough to matter. In other words, stay tuned!

Rank	Score	Name
1	7	Michael A.
2	7	Matthew D.
3	7	Grant M.
4	7	Cameron M.
5	6	Ben S.
6	6	Marcus S.
7	6	Stacey C.
8	6	Stephanie A.
9	6	Chris C.
10	5	Sarah T.
11	5	Stuart P.
12	5	Megan J.
13	5	Nadir Y.
14	5	Janet C.
15	5	Rachel H.
16	5	Keila B.
17	4	Chris M.
18	4	John E.
19	4	Jeff C.
20	4	Ryan M.
21	4	Jason C.
22	4	Leanne S.
23	3	Eric M.
24	3	Rachel F.
25	3	Ron D.
26	3	Jenny A.
27	3	Ellen Y.
28	3	Collette T.
29	3	Jan M.
30	3	Paul K.
31	3	Pamela C.
32	2	Ekrem S.
33	2	Liz K.
34	2	Zachary S.
35	2	Larry A.
36	2	Peter M.
37	2	Katie M.
38	2	Valerie M.
39	2	Todd C.
40	1	Miriam S.
41	1	Bill C.
42	0	Missy A.

At the bottom, Missy A. retains her position in dead last place, which was her stated goal for the year. She is currently all alone at the bottom with just a few weeks to go. Good luck finishing it out!