2017 PROGNOSTICATION QUIZ

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 14, 2017.
Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com.
Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter!

1. Freedom (January)

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many countries it calculates to be free, partly free, or not free. The 2016 report calculated that 86 of the world’s 196 nations were free in 2015. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2016? Note: the seven worst free countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Jamaica, Peru, and Suriname. The nineteen best partly free countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Ecuador, Fiji, Georgia, Indonesia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Paraguay, Philippines, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, and Ukraine. The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (5), 84 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 85 total
c. no change (6), 86 total
d. plus one (4), 87 total
e. plus two or three (3), 88 - 89 total
f. plus four or more (3), 90 or more total

2. Groundhog (February 2)

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow (which he could not locate last year), it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.

What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (16)
b. No shadow (7)

3. Football (February 5)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all this year or will an upstart prevail? Regular season wins and losses are indicated in parentheses.

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (14-2 New England Patriots)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (13-3 Dallas Cowboys)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (12-4 Kansas City Chiefs)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (11-5 Atlanta Falcons)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

4. Film (February 26)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year? These are the five nominees for the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, which usually contains the best picture for the Academy, as well.

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?

a. Lion
b. Hell or High Water
c. Moonlight
d. Hacksaw Ridge
e. Manchester by the Sea
f. none of the above: some other film will win

5. Writing (April 10)

Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 16 years are listed (ties are possible).

Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers?
a. The Washington Post (5)
b. The New York Times (8)
c. The Wall Street Journal (3)
d. The Los Angeles Times (5)
e. another news organization will be named the most times (1)

6. France (April 23)

France holds its presidential election on April 23, with a run-off on May 7 if no one gets a majority of votes in the first round. François Fillon and Marine Le Pen are the current favorites to advance to a run-off.

Who will be the next President of France?
a. François Fillon (Republican)
b. Marine Le Pen (National Front)
c. Emmanuel Macron (En Marche)
d. A Socialist (primary being held in January)
e. Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Left)
f. another party will win the Presidency

7. Kenya (August 8)

Kenya has a fragile democracy with a history of tribal violence surrounding elections. Right now, the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta is widely expected to win re-election over his 2013 opponent Raila Odinga.

Who will be the next President of Kenya?
a. Uhuru Kenyatta (incumbent, Jubilee Coalition)
b. Raila Odinga (CORD)
c. someone else will win the election, or the election will be canceled or postponed beyond 2017

8. Nobels (October)

There are six Nobel Prizes: Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, Peace, and Economic Sciences. They can each be awarded to as many as three people, so it is pretty special when a Nobel Prize is given to a single individual (with the exception of the Literature Prize, which is usually awarded to a single individual). How often will that happen this year? (The total number of times each has happened this millennium is indicated.)

How many Nobel prizes will be awarded to a single individual?
a. One (4)
b. Two (9)
c. Three (3)
d. Zero, Four, Five, or Six (0)

9. Storms (November 30)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were four hurricanes in 2016, six in 2014, a paltry two in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, and an all-time record fifteen in 2005.
  
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be?
a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-10
e. 11 or more

10. Stocks (December 29)

How will stocks do in this first year of Trumponomics? Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be up or down compared to the final close of 2016?

Which way will the Dow go?
a. Up
b. Down

11. Earthquake (December 31)

How many big earthquakes (magnitude 8.0 or larger on the Richter scale) will there be this year? (Big earthquake counts from this millennium are indicated in parentheses.)

How many big earthquakes will there be this year?
a. None (2)
b. One (7)
c. Two (4)
d. Three or more (1)

12.  SCOTUS (December 31)

Who will President Trump nominate to the Supreme Court of the United States in 2017? And will they get through confirmation hearings in the Senate? (The likelihood probabilities in parentheses are from PredictIt.org.)

Who will join the Supreme Court?
a. William H. Pryor, Jr. (23%)
b. Diane Skyes (17%)
c. Ted Cruz (9%)
d. Raymond Kethledge (6%)
e. Neil Gorsuch (6%)
f. Don Willett (5%)
g. Thomas Lee (5%)
h. Joan Larsen (5%)
i. someone else
j. no one will join the Supreme Court in 2017

13-15. Death (December 31)

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2017? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through U have been re-upped from last year's quiz. V through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. The 2017 birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 99-year-old has a 74% chance of lasting 12 months. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again. PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Who will not survive 2017?
a. Beverly Cleary, Henry Huggins Author (101)
b. Kirk Douglas, Hollywood Legend and Philanthropist (101)
c. I. M. Pei, MIT-trained Architect (100)
d. Bobby Doerr, Hall of Fame Red Sox Second Baseman (99)
e. Billy Graham, Christian Evangelist (99)
f. Joseph Wapner, The People's Court Judge (98)
g. John Paul Stevens, Former US Supreme Court Justice (97)
h. George Shultz, Former US Secretary of State (97)
i. Prince Philip, Husband of Queen Elizabeth II (96)
j. Luis Echeverría Álvarez, Former President of Mexico (95)
k. Betty White, Comedic Actress and Animal Activist (95)
l. Doris Day, Movie Icon and Animal Activist (95)
m. Chuck Yeager, Test Pilot and Mach 1 Breaker (94)
n. Henry Kissinger, Former US Secretary of State (94)
o. Bob Dole, Former US Senator (94)
p. Bob Barker, Price is Right Host (94)
q. Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe (93)
r. George Bush, Former US President (93)
s. Jimmy Carter, Former US President (93)
t. Lee Iacocca, Automobile Executive (93)
u. Barbara Bush, Former US First Lady (92)
v. Dick Van Dyke, Eponymous Show Actor (91)
w. Alan Greenspan, Former Fed Chairman (91)
x. Jerry Lewis, Comedic Actor and Fundraiser (91)
y. Mel Brooks, Filmmaker and EGOT Winner (91)
z. Elizabeth II, Queen of England (90)

Tie-Breaker

Indicate the precise year-end closing for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:___________________

Optional: Betting Pool

The betting pool will continue into its third year. If you would like to put your money where your mouth is, send me either $10 or $50. When the quiz is done, I will compare scores for all bettors and give 70% of their minimum $10 to the highest score and 30% to the second highest score. Then I will compare everyone who contributed $50 and split all their remaining entry money (i.e. $40 each) and give 70% to the highest score and 30% to the second highest score. ALL money collected will be disbursed to Quiz winners. Your humble Quizmaster will refrain from entering the pool in order to remain disinterested. All judgments by said Quizmaster are final. You don't even have to pay in advance! Just indicate what level of the betting pool you would like to participate in and then sometime in 2017 get me payment by cash, check, Paypal, or barter.