2016 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 10 and 11, POTUS and Storms

10. POTUS

The steadily improving economy seems to bode well for the incumbent Democrats, while the Republicans seem to be having trouble finding a charismatic candidate. Will the Democrats have an easy win, or will those scrappy Republicans regroup and consolidate?

What will become President and Vice President of the United States?
a. The Republican ticket
b. The Democratic ticket
c. An Independent ticket

You may not have noticed, since the overall press coverage has been very light, but we have a new President-elect. After a crazy campaign that started two years ago, the Republicans are back in the White House, meaning the answer to Question 10 of the 2016 Prognostication Quiz is A.

Kudos to the six people who predicted that after eight years of a Democratic administration would make enough people want a change. An impressive 37 people picked the Democrats but came up three states short.

All Trump, All the Time

Stacey C.

Chris M.

Ron D.

Larry A.

John E.

Jason C.

11. Storms

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were four hurricanes in 2016, six in 2014, a paltry two in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, and an all-time record fifteen in 2005.

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more

We had 7 hurricanes this year. That is more than the past few years due to a developing La Nina. Tragically, the climate scientist among us (Marcus S.) failed to get this one right. He thought there would be 9 hurricanes, and guessed D. So don't feel so bad if you are one of the 18 people who got zero points on this question like Marcus S.

The Magnificent 7 (or 8)

Stacey C.

Chris M.

Ron D.

John E.

Jason C.

Sarah T.

Nadir Y.

Ellen Y.

Sarah S.

Sarah M.

Aidan M.

Peter B.

Rachel F.

Tina A.

Jeff C.

Stephanie A.

Adam K.

Chris C.

13-15. Death
Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2016? You get THREE guesses on this one. Amazingly, A through Y were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it. Z is the only fresh nonagenarian meat this year. (The 2016 birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 99-year-old has a 74% chance of seeing 2016.)

Who will not survive 2016?
m. John Glenn, former Astronaut and US Senator (95)

Another failed presidential candidate passed away earlier this month. John Glenn was a perennial vice-presidential hopeful in the late 70s and 80s, along with running an abortive Presidential campaign in 1984, dropping out of the race after Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson, and Walter Mondale were getting all the votes. He also had a variety of interesting hobbies, in which he made a number of additional accomplishments.

Only one person wanted John Glenn to die this year: the very young Miriam S. She gets a point to lift her far ahead of her younger brother Zachary S. who is sadly ensconced in last place with 1 point.

Leader Board

In an astonishing and heartbreaking twist, Liz K. has been booted from first place after leading the Quiz the entire year. A hearty congratulations to Stacey C., who was correct on Questions 10 and 11 while Liz K. failed on both. Liz K. is joined at 7 points by Sarah T. and Nadir Y., both of whom are currently beating Liz K. on the tie-breaker.

One question to go, people! (Though maybe we'll get a wintry death or two.) Last up is the Stocks:

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 16,000
b. 16,000 to 16,750
c. 16,750 to 17,500
d. 17,500 to 18,250
e. 18,250 to 19,000
f. greater than 19,000

Right now, the Dow Jones is at 19,756. Stocks have had a great year, including several record-setting rallies since Election Day.

Two people picked that stocks would do that well: the suddenly super-prescient Miriam S. and Missy A. They have 3 and 2 points, respectively, and will not be challenging Stacey C. for the top slot. It will have to tumble all the way into D or C territory to affect the leaderboard (Stacey C. chose C while Sarah T. and Nadir Y. chose D.)

That leaves time only for a Christmastime miracle to affect the top of the leader board. Stacey C. can pretty much put it away if Kirk Douglas, Bobby Doerr, or Billy Graham kick the bucket. Nadir Y. can pull into a tie with Stacey C. and beat him on the tiebreaker if Beverly Cleary, I.M. Pei, or Luis Alvarez buys the farm. Sarah T. and Liz K. can pull into a tie with Stacey C. if Jimmy Carter passes on. Finally, Liz K. can tie Stacey C. and beat him on the tiebreaker if Bob Dole gives up the ghost.

So it will be a tense month for those four. Sorry to everyone else! There's always next year!

Rank	Score	Name
1	8	Stacey C.
2	7	Sarah T.
3	7	Nadir Y.
4	7	Liz K.
5	6	Chris M.
6	6	Ellen Y.
7	6	Ron D.
8	5	Larry A.
9	5	John E.
10	5	Rachel H.
11	5	Stuart P.
12	5	Grant M.
13	5	Michael A.
14	5	Jason C.
15	5	Sarah S.
16	5	Sarah M.
17	4	Aidan M.
18	4	Peter B.
19	4	Adrian C.
20	4	Ramy Y.
21	4	Marcus S.
22	4	Collette T.
23	4	Rachel F.
24	4	Tina A.
25	4	Russell V.
26	4	Pete C.
27	3	Katie M.
28	3	Cameron M.
29	3	Ben S.
30	3	Gemma D.
31	3	Jeff C.
32	3	Gloria T.
33	3	Stephanie A.
34	3	Eric M.
35	3	Adam K.
36	3	Janet C.
37	3	Keila B.
38	3	Zhiqi Q.
39	3	Dylan S.
40	3	Matthew D.
41	3	Miriam S.
42	2	Dave S.
43	2	Valerie M.
44	2	Chris C.
45	2	Missy A.
46	1	Zachary S.