J. Michael Andresen

The elder statesman of the the 2011 Prognostication Quiz has passed on. Colonel Potter of M*A*S*H retires to the great Korean war in the sky. That makes A. Harry Morgan a correct answer on Question 13-15 of the quiz. The Ageists Marcus Russell Megan Paul Stacey Cameron M. Dave Zoe Katie Rachel F. Todd Beth Tina Leanne Ted Larry Missy Leaderboard This death has a profound effect on the leaderboard. What was a four-way race just two weeks ago has been winnowed down to two. Russell will pull even with Marcus and best him in the tiebreaker if the Dow ends the year between 12,361.5 and 12,499.99. Otherwise, Marcus wins. The Dow has not been higher than 12,200 since late July, but some good news from Congress or Europe could easily set it rising in the last two weeks of the year. If Zsa-zsa Gabor (in and out of the hospital all year) finally buys the farm, Russell would expand his winning range and win if the Dow finished anywhere above 12,000. Megan, Paul, Adrian, and Stacey are all dark...

Question 10. Storms Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were twelve hurricanes in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the last 12 years)? How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season? a. 3 or less b. 4-5 c. 6-7 d. 8-9 e. 10-12 f. 13 or more Kudos to those who thought we would exactly match the recent average of seven hurricanes. There were precisely seven Atlantic storms that made it to hurricane strength this year. This means the answer to Question 10 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is C. 6-7. The 7 Winners Irene Katia Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Those who predicted the 7 winners Russell Ryan Stacey Lorraine Ron Collette Gloria Beth Question 13-15. Death One more death to tick off: r. Andy Rooney, 60 Minutes Journalist (92) Rooney was one of the media's great workaholics. He died just f...

Question 9. Peace (October) For the past 21 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. What key word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize? a. “Democracy” (5) b. “Rights” (6) c. Any specific geographical region (6) d. “International” (5) e. “Peaceful” (6) f. None of the above (4) Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkul Karman win this year's Nobel Peace Prize "for their nonviolent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work." This makes the answer to Question 9 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is B. Rights. Kudos to the eleven who lean a bit to the right: Adrian Megan Valerie Jan Jeff Claire&Craig Cameron M. Rich Eric Sarah Keila That's two years in a row the Peace Prize has gone for rights. (Last year Liu Xiaobo won it for his struggles for human rights in China.) That makes it suc...

By popular demand (viz. Leanne) here are a bunch of cute baby pictures. Prepare for the happy! 0.2 months: Sorry I'm a little yellow. The bilirubin was still on its way out. 0.3 months: Maxwell is very gentle holding my hand. 0.5 months: Don't you wish you could still get away with sleeping 20 hours a day? 0.8 months: Not sure why I don't get to wear bright colors. 0.8 months: Daddy drills me every day on my penmanship. 1.0 months: Daddy doesn't look as tired as he is feeling. 1.0 months: Posing for the camera. 1.4 months: Maxwell likes to give me hugs. 1.5 months: I'm a little grumpy today. 1.7 months: Family photo. Maxwell taught me how not to look at the camera. 2.0 months: I love how the Minnesota grass has been so green for my entire life. 2.2 months: Bathtime with Mommy. 2.4 months: Hanging out in the vibrating bouncy chair. 2.7 months: Maxwell orchestrates a brother-brother nap in the living room.

Question 8, Golf. Tiger Woods has won 14 Major Championships in the past 14 years, but he has not won any in the past two years. Will he ever win again? Or is he washed up? Pick only one answer. (Ties are possible.) Which Major Championship will Tiger win? a. the Masters in April (4) b. the US Open in June (3) c. the British Open in July (3) d. the PGA Championship in August (4) e. Tiger will win no Championships Tiger had an awful year and didn't even make the cut for the PGA Championship last weekend. This will not surprise the 19 entrants who realized that Tiger was no longer capable of finding his happy place. This makes the answer to Question 8 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz e. Tiger will win no Championships . The Elin sympathizers: Jo Marcus Ryan Adrian Jeff Jan Liz Ron Matthew Grant Megan Tina Zhiqi Rachel H. Cameron M. Rachel F. Craig Stacey Gloria The 19 votes for this question was the biggest voting bloc of the entire quiz for...

Question 7. Olympics Only three cities have bid to host the 2018 Winter Olympics. Which city will deliver the winning presentation to the International Olympic Committee? a. Annency, France b. Munich, Germany c. Pyeongchang, South Korea The Olympic committee went with South Korea, putting in great jeopardy Tokyo's bid for the summer Olympics in 2020. That means that the answer to Question 7 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz c. Pyeongchang, South Korea . Nine people correctly predicted that the Olympic Committee would avoid the tired old cities of Western Europe this time around. The just-outside-of-Seoul-mates: Cherie Russell Ryan Michael Adrian Matthew Grant Katie Megan Seventeen people in the Quiz rooted for France, while twenty-three pulled for Germany. The nine of us who went with Pyeongchang are feeling rather smug right now and move strongly up the pack. Ted was alone in thinking the answer would be D. Sadly for him, no country felt safe in submitti...

Max has been a wonderful older brother to Calvin, now a month old. Here are the videos documenting their first encounter, in the hospital when Calvin was just two days old: Max sees his baby brother Calvin for the first time. Max seems particularly interested in Calvin's nose. More attempts at the nose. Eventually Max moved on to investigating Calvin's feet, mouth, and umbilical cord remnant. Then he gets bored. He is only two. Aunt qua babysitter Tina seems more interested in Calvin's cheek. Max's boredom is allayed with periodic forays into the shower.

I apologize to everyone for being so tardy in posting this blog post. The 2011 prizes were announced at 8:30 a.m. on April 18. As it turns out, that was 6 hours and 8 minutes after my second son was born, so I have been somewhat busy with the toddler-infant combo in recent days. Question 6. Writing Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers? a. The Washington Post b. The New York Times c. The Wall Street Journal d. The Los Angeles Times e. another paper will be named the most times It was a close one this year! The New York Times and the Los Angeles Times each won two Pulitzers this year, besting the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, with just one prize apiece. That means the answer to Question 6 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is a tie between answer answers B and D. Details are at the Pulitzer Prize website. Times readers of the New York variety: Ekrem, Marcus, Jo, Paul, Pete C., Russell, Cherie, Claire&Craig, Michael, Zoe, Cameron L., Jan, Liz, Matthew, Tina, Bet...

Introducing our second son, Calvin Lawrence, born on April 18 at 2:22 a.m. and tipping the scales at 8 pounds and 1 ounce. He sleeps and eats in large portions, unlike his rascally brother Maxwell did when he was the same age. Mother and baby are recuperating nicely despite some abdominal surgery and a touch of jaundice, respectively. Father is a little tired but doesn't feel like he has much cause to complain. Welcome to our new addition!

11. Events (December) Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty. What rare event will happen in 2011? a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea. b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan. c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon. d. Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test. e. Osama bin Laden is captured or neutralized. f. An internationally recognized Palestinian state is established. g. The United Kingdom announces its intention to join the euro. h. Any country announces its intention to drop the euro. i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions. j. BP files for bankruptcy in the US. k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs. l. Higgs-Boson particle is observed to a confidence of five sigma. After a more thorough analysis of the seismograph data, the US Geological Su...

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture? a. The Social Network b. The King's Speech c. True Grit d. 127 Hours e. Inception f. none of the above: some other film will win The film about overcoming adversity had to overcome adversity to best the late favorite The Social Network for American filmdom's top prize. The answer to Question 5 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz and the winner of the 2011 Academy Award for best picture is b. The King's Speech . Sixteen contestants guessed this correctly, besting the seventeen who found Mark Zuckerberg's tale more compelling than King George VI's and also the twenty who took a flier on an underdog in the form of answers C, D, E, or F. The Oscar V-V-Victors: Ekrem Valerie Marcus Lorraine Chris M. Zoe Ron Cherie Sarah Jo Cameron M. Rachel F. Katie Claire&Craig Ellen Adrian Leader Board Ekrem has stunned the competition with his third point out of five questions. After three years, his "spell something" stra...

Katie and I show our typical ability in trying to get Max to smile for a photo. This was (by far) the best take out of a dozen or so in this series. Given his clumsy knockdown of the three-block tower at the start, I was shocked at the end of taking this video. Max was just learning how to stack blocks at this time, and I happened to be taking video while watching him build the tallest tower I'd ever seen him build to date. For Christmas, Max got a set of Duplo blocks, but he preferred playing with the box they came in. I was enjoined to dress Max in "something festive" for Christmas. The only thing I could find that fit that description was a silvery Halloween costume, which Max enjoyed showing off to everyone. Here, he giggles as he chases aunt Laura around the dining room table. Max has connived aunts Missy and Tina into playing one of his favorite games. While Max sits on the top step, Missy shovels snow into a pile in front of him. Max then scoops the snow into his l...

The sixth-seed Green Bay Packers defeated all of their conference rivals and then went on to prevail over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was awarded the honor of Most Valuable Player as he threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns. Kudos to the six whose underdog pick worked out! Honorary Cheeseheads Dave Pete C. Collette Jeff Rich Kevin One of the saddest things about the Packers winning was my grad school friend Sarah. She is a huge Packers fan, but did not think that Aaron Rodgers was quite good enough to pull his team all the way to the championship. She decided to play it safe and pick the favored Patriots. She must have felt especially awful when Green Bay won it all despite her lack of faith. Adding insult to injury was the fact that her mother Collette never lost the Packer faith and has now scored her first point. Sarah will be tormented for all eternity in the ninth circle of hell along with arch-betrayers Brutus and Cassius (who also have...

Question #2: Freedom How will the number of free countries change? (Total who answered each is in parentheses.) a. minus two or worse, 87 or fewer total (6) b. minus one, 88 total (13) c. no change, 89 total (12) d. plus one, 90 total (13) e. plus two or three, 91-92 total (4) f. plus four or more, 93 or more total (3) The number crunchers over at Freedom House tell us it has been a bad year for freedom again this year. A total of 25 countries saw a decline in freedom level compared to 11 countries that improved. Included in the declining countries are Mexico and Ukraine. They were "free" in 2009, but were only "partly free" last year. That means that the total number of free countries decreased by two, leaving just 87 free countries in the world and making a. minus two or worse the answer to Question #2 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz . Ukraine suffered due to the maneuvers of President Viktor Yanukovych to crack down on the press, rig elections, and politicize...

Here again is Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz , with the number of times each answer was chosen in parentheses (also see pie chart above): What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz? a. A (7) b. B (4) c. C (8) d. D (7) e. E (15) f. F (10) The winning answer is therefore b. B . Congratulations to Marcus, Russell, Paul, and Ekrem for outsmarting the field on that one. Marcus was influenced by a key game theory scene from a popular historical dramatic film: "I rolled a six sided die for this one: I decided a 1 in 6 chance was better than trying to follow any set of logical instincts, in the theory that more than 1 in 6 of my friends might think like I do. After all, they've all seen the Princess Bride too." This is a useful approach, since it eliminates any undue sway of underlying psychology and gives a true one-in-six chance at hitting pay dirt. Russell plunged in and dared to guess at the underlying psychology in ord...

Question 12: Stocks The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year at 11,577.51. We started the year at 10,428, so the Dow has gained 11% as the economy has clawed its way out of recession. That means that the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is over. The answer to Question 12 (What will be the year-end close for the Dow?) is F. Greater than 11,500 . The Super-Bulls: Ryan Gloria Marcus Ellen Grant Cherie Rachel F. Jeff Peter Ellen was the closest of all with her tie-break prediction that the Dow would end at 11,543 (off by 34.5 points). Rachel F. was second with her guess of 11,521 (off by 56.5 points). On the other end of the spectrum, Janette visualized a doomsday scenario where all thirty components of the Dow simultaneously went belly-up on December 31, plunging the index to zero. Either that or she just forgot to submit a tie-break answer. Ryan correctly predicted that the Dow would have a banner year. With his correct stocks prediction, Ryan joins Ron again at the top of the leader b...