2011 Prognostication Quiz: Question 10, Storms

Question 10. Storms

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were twelve hurricanes in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the last 12 years)?

How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 3 or less
b. 4-5
c. 6-7
d. 8-9
e. 10-12
f. 13 or more

Kudos to those who thought we would exactly match the recent average of seven hurricanes. There were precisely seven Atlantic storms that made it to hurricane strength this year. This means the answer to Question 10 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is C. 6-7.

The 7 Winners
Irene
Katia
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina

Those who predicted the 7 winners
Russell
Ryan
Stacey
Lorraine
Ron
Collette
Gloria
Beth

Question 13-15. Death

One more death to tick off:

r. Andy Rooney, 60 Minutes Journalist (92)

Rooney was one of the media's great workaholics. He died just five weeks after he aired his final witty commentary for 60 Minutes. I would rather not still be at the lab bench doing experiments when I'm in my early 90's. (Although, if someone told me that I would kick off 30 days after I retired, I might change my mind.)

The Rooney retinue
Cherie
Kevin
Rachel H.
Gloria
Todd
Janet

Special kudos to Kevin, who gets his first death for the clever predictive troika of R.I.P. (Ben has yet to score from his more hopeful wish of death to G.O.P.)

Leaderboard

Marcus retains his grip on first place, even though he should be particularly embarrassed to miss the hurricanes question given that he is a climate scientist. Neither Jo or Adrian were able to catch up with Marcus, though Russell, Ryan, and Cherie join them at just one point behind the leader.

6 Marcus
5 Russell
5 Jo
5 Adrian
5 Ryan
5 Cherie
4 Lorraine
4 Paul
4 Megan
4 Stacey
4 Valerie
4 Jan
4 Jeff
4 Ron
4 Pete C.
4 Ekrem
3 Michael
3 Kevin
3 Claire&Craig
3 Gloria
3 Cameron M.
3 Grant
3 Rachel H.
3 Dave
3 Matthew
3 Rich
3 Liz
3 Collette
3 Cameron L.
3 Zoe
2 Ellen
2 Katie
2 Zhiqi
2 Craig
2 Rachel F.
2 Todd
2 Janet
2 Eric
2 Beth
2 Tina
2 Leanne
2 Sarah
2 Chris M.
2 Ted
1 Missy
1 Larry
1 Peter B.
1 Keila
1 Ben
1 Chris C.
0 Nadir

Question 12: Stocks

Marcus remains the strong favorite to end up victorious at the end of the year due to the fact that his Dow Jones prediction is still in play. Or to be precise, due to the fact that his predictions are still in play. Although most entrants do match their stocks prediction with their tie-break answer, there is no requirement to do so. This year, Marcus predicted that the Dow would end up over 12,500 (answer F to Question 12), but listed 12,235 as his tie-break. This, combined with his one-point lead and the other answers and tie-breaks, makes the final story a bit complicated. Barring any further celebrity deaths or interesting events, Marcus can win if the Dow ends in any one of three non-consecutive ranges:

>12,500 = Marcus wins
12,492.5 to 12,499.99 = Jo wins
12,361.5 to 12,492.5 = Russell wins
11,908.5 to 12,361.5 = Marcus wins
11,500 to 11,908.5 = Adrian wins
<11,500 = Marcus wins

(Note that Ryan and Cherie are not listed since they chose answer F on Question 12 along with Marcus, so they need an additional point from Question 11 or 13-15 to prevail.)

Hang on to your hats! It's going to be another close finish!