2011 Prognostication Quiz, Question #11 Events

11. Events (December)
Pick an interesting low-frequency event that might happen sometime this year. Each of these is listed in a contract on Intrade.com. They are each trading in the 5 – 15% range, many with very high uncertainty.

What rare event will happen in 2011?
a. The US conducts an overt military action against North Korea.
b. China conducts an overt military action against Taiwan.
c. Japan announces it has acquired a nuclear weapon.
d. Iran conducts a nuclear weapons test.
e. Osama bin Laden is captured or neutralized.
f. An internationally recognized Palestinian state is established.
g. The United Kingdom announces its intention to join the euro.
h. Any country announces its intention to drop the euro.
i. The US establishes a cap-and-trade system for emissions.
j. BP files for bankruptcy in the US.
k. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs.
l. Higgs-Boson particle is observed to a confidence of five sigma.

After a more thorough analysis of the seismograph data, the US Geological Survey has changed the estimated magnitude of Friday's earthquake in Japan from 8.9 to 9.0. The Intrade contract that I based the answer on has thus expired.

The horrific toll in human life and the continuing crises over the damaged nuclear power plants are quite sobering.

The earthquake predictors:
Lorraine
Ryan
Jo
Kevin
Adrian
Michael

Leader Board

With the earthquake reanalysis, Lorraine has now snuck into first place along with Ekrem. Ten entrants are one behind at two points.

3 Lorraine
3 Ekrem
2 Ryan
2 Jo
2 Dave
2 Valerie
2 Marcus
2 Kevin
2 Paul
2 Adrian
2 Chris M.
2 Pete C.
1 Rachel H.
1 Russell
1 Cameron M.
1 Rich
1 Rachel F.
1 Katie
1 Claire&Craig
1 Sarah
1 Ellen
1 Michael
1 Missy
1 Cherie
1 Jeff
1 Ron
1 Larry
1 Collette
1 Leanne
1 Zoe
1 Cameron L.
0 Matthew
0 Tina
0 Beth
0 Eric
0 Jan
0 Grant
0 Chris C.
0 Janet
0 Todd
0 Peter B.
0 Zhiqi
0 Nadir
0 Craig
0 Megan
0 Gloria
0 Keila
0 Stacey
0 Ben
0 Ted
0 Liz

Question 6 Update

The updated leader board makes the next question a bit more exciting. Lorraine has picked A. The Washington Post while Ekrem chose B. The New York Times. If the winner turns out to be C. The Wall Street Journal, Dave, Valerie, and Kevin would advance to a five-way tie for first place. If D. The Los Angeles Times manages to eke out a victory, nothing really exciting would happen: Rich, Ellen, and Ron would advance to the second-place tie at two points. I'm sure that each of you will be glued to your television sets on April 18 at 3 p.m. Eastern Time!

Comments

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