2017 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 1-3

Welcome, all, to the 2017 Prognostication Quiz! We have a fun year ahead of us with sports, politics, economics, and hopefully a number of untimely deaths. We have 42 entrants this year, which is down 4 from last year.

1. Freedom

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many countries it calculates to be free, partly free, or not free. The 2016 report calculated that 86 of the world’s 196 nations were free in 2015. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2016? Note: the seven worst free countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Jamaica, Peru, and Suriname. The nineteen best partly free countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Ecuador, Fiji, Georgia, Indonesia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Paraguay, Philippines, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, and Ukraine. The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (5), 84 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 85 total
c. no change (6), 86 total
d. plus one (4), 87 total
e. plus two or three (3), 88 - 89 total
f. plus four or more (3), 90 or more total

According to Freedom House, this has been another awful year for freedom, which has declined for 11 years in a row, after mostly rising for 20 years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The silver lining to that is that the number of "free" countries went up by one, from 86 to 87. This means the answer to the inaugural question to the 2017 Prognostication Quiz is D, plus one.

For last year's report, 9 countries were close to downgrading and 15 were close to upgrading. Yet Freedom House still downgraded two countries from free to partly free. This year, there were just 7 countries that are close to downgrading and a whopping 19 who are close to upgrading. I think Freedom House likes to be a bit alarmist, and they may get better press when they say the world is falling apart, but I figured that the ratio was too out of balance for a fourth consecutive year of downgrades, so I was one of the lucky ones who picked D.


The lucky country upgrading was the Solomon Islands (see picture), which comprises a population of  600,000 living on 900+ islands. It has been recovering slowly from a civil war in 2000-2003. The UN and New Zealand have been active in its redevelopment, and this year it got the nod from Freedom House. The Solomon Islands is important in my family history, because in World War II my grandfather fought in the battle of Guadalcanal, the island that houses the government of the Solomon Islands.

Grant M. picked B and writes "This is hard, as usual. I try to keep up with the news but I frankly have no idea what's going on in Suriname or the Seychelles." On the super optimistic side, Marcus S. picked E. and wrote "Last year I calculated 89 as the median number recently, and I think that despite Russia and Trump, we'll see a regression to average."

Kudos to the five who picked D. Answers A (11 people), B (10 people) and C (11 people) were more popular.

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The Mild Optimists
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Matthew D.

Michael A.

Jeff C.

Cameron M.

Zachary S.

2. Groundhog

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow (which he could not locate last year), it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.

What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (16)
b. No shadow (7)

Punxatawney Phil seems to live in a place that has  about a two-thirds chance of sun in early February. Or, as intrepid analyist Grant M. has uncovered, "It seems like the actual weather in Punxatawney doesn't strongly correlate with umbral visages. Last year it was sunny but I got a point for Phil not seeing his shadow." Whether the clouds were in the skies or merely in his disturbed psyche (see picture) Phil regressed to the mean and claimed to see his shadow again this year. (Good pick, Grant M.) This means the answer to Question 2 is A, his shadow.

Congratulations to the 26 people who picked A. Here are the losing 16 who sensed cloudiness in the skies or in Phil's psyche. 

No shadow

Bill C.

Jason C.

Valerie M.

Ekrem S.

Katie M.

Miriam S.

Keila B.

Ellen Y.

Pamela C.

Jenny A.

Liz K.

Cameron M.

Zachary S.

Nadir Y.

Paul K.

Missy A.

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3. Football

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all this year or will an upstart prevail? Regular season wins and losses are indicated in parentheses.

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (14-2 New England Patriots)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (13-3 Dallas Cowboys)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (12-4 Kansas City Chiefs)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (11-5 Atlanta Falcons)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

I have called some Super Bowls "epic" in past versions of the Quiz, but this one put them all to shame. Not only was this the first Super Bowl to go into overtime, but it also included the largest ever come-from-behind win. The Atlanta Falcons were crushing the New England Patriots by a score of 28-3 after two-thirds of game time had expired. And yet, thanks to some incredible luck (including a crazy catch made by #11 Julian Edelman two seconds following the instant captured above), New England scored the next 25 points to tie the game at 28 before winning in overtime by the final score of 34-28. Janet C., Paul K., and Miriam S. picked the Falcons and came SO CLOSE to picking an early underdog to get ahead in the Quiz only to have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

The answer to Question 3 is therefore A, New England Patriots, which was the overwhelming favorite with 24 entrants going with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Julian Edelman et al.

Patriot Nation

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Matthew D.

Michael A.

Stacey C.

Megan J.

Stephanie A.

Marcus S.

Ron D.

Stuart P.

John E.

Chris M.

Sarah T.

Rachel H.

Jan M.

Chris C.

Ben S.

Todd C.

Nadir Y.

Ellen Y.

Bill C.

Jason C.

Valerie M.

Keila B.

Ekrem S.

Pamela C.

Leader Board
After the craziest week in Quiz history (the three answers came on January 30, February 2, and February 5), two entrants remain perfect: Matthew D. and your humble quizmaster. Even though is the tenth annual Prognostication Quiz (happy tin anniversary, dear Quiz), this is just the second time I have been at the top of a leader board later than Question 1. Matthew D., on the other hand, is no stranger to the pinnacle of the leader board, having won the entire Quiz back in 2013. 

Next up is the Oscars. Matthew D. picked E, Manchester by the Sea, while I chose F, La La Land. Seems like I might be the favorite to taste (for the first time ever) sole possession of first place in any quiz at any time. Bring it on, Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences!


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Rank	Score	Name
1	3	Matthew D.
2	3	Michael A.
3	2	Jeff C.
4	2	Stacey C.
5	2	Megan J.
6	2	Stephanie A.
7	2	Marcus S.
8	2	Ron D.
9	2	Stuart P.
10	2	John E.
11	2	Chris M.
12	2	Sarah T.
13	2	Rachel H.
14	2	Jan M.
15	2	Chris C.
16	2	Ben S.
17	2	Todd C.
18	1	Peter M.
19	1	Nadir Y.
20	1	Cameron M.
21	1	Grant M.
22	1	Ellen Y.
23	1	Rachel F.
24	1	Eric M.
25	1	Larry A.
26	1	Bill C.
27	1	Janet C.
28	1	Zachary S.
29	1	Ryan M.
30	1	Jason C.
31	1	Valerie M.
32	1	Keila B.
33	1	Collette T.
34	1	Ekrem S.
35	1	Pamela C.
36	1	Leanne S.
37	0	Jenny A.
38	0	Katie M.
39	0	Miriam S.
40	0	Liz K.
41	0	Paul K.
42	0	Missy A.