2015 Prognostication Quiz, Final Post and WINNER

11. Stocks (December 31)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index had an good year in 2014, rising by 8%, after a 25% rise the year before. It is currently at around 17,900. Will the Dow continue climbing in 2015, or are we in line for a market correction?

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 16,000
b. 16,000 to 16,800
c. 16,800 to 17,600
d. 17,600 to 18,300
e. 18,300 to 19,000
f. greater than 19,000

The markets did not do very well this year, ending 2015 in negative territory (though just barely). The Dow Jones ended the year down a few hundred points, at 17,425.03. This means the answer to Question 11 of the 2015 Prognostication Quiz is C. Congratulations to the seven intrepid contestants who went against the grain to predict a down year for stocks.

The Barely Bears

Janet C.

Rachel H.

Stephanie A.

Russell V.

Cameron M.

Ellen Y.

Adam K.

12. Bitcoin (December 31)

Bitcoin is a fledgling digital currency that has made headlines the past two years for its novelty and for its volatility. At the end of 2010, one bitcoin cost 30 cents. That rose to $5 by the end of 2011 and $13 by the end of 2012 before skyrocketing to $817 by the end of 2013. In 2014 the price has crashed to its current level around $320. Will the price of a bitcoin continue to collapse? Or will 2015 see a turnaround? Optimists say that it's only a matter of time before Bitcoin becomes the dominant world currency. Naysayers think that the anonymous transfer technology is interesting but that the currency itself is rather pointless.

How much will one bitcoin be worth at the end of 2015?
a. Under $100
b. $100 - $200
c. $200 - $300
d. $300 - $400
e. $400 - $500
f. $500 - $600
g. over $600

Bitcoin has had a good year, with more people (slowly) adopting the new technology. The price rose over the course of the year while avoiding crazy swings in value that plagued it the previous two years. It ended 2016 at $435 for one bitcoin, meaning the answer to Question 12 is E.

Kudos to the three clever prognosticators who could tell that the crazy ups and downs of 2013 and 2014 were just red herrings and that Bicoin would be a great investment for 2015.

The Blockchain Boosters

Rachel H.

Peter B.

Sarah M.

Leader Board

Janet C. is the big winner, guessing her way to the top spot in the 2015 Prognostication Quiz! In second place is Rachel H., with Peter B. in third place and rounding out the select trio that achieved 7 points for the year.

Last month, we had a seven-way tie at 6 points (including Janet and Peter), followed by six contestants with 5 points (including Rachel). We end up with the three-way tie at 7 points as Janet and Peter each got one point this month while Rachel, stunningly, got both of the financial questions correct. (I hope she was in charge of investing her family finances this year, selling short on stocks and buying lots of bitcoins.)

Janet bests the trio with 7 points on the strength of her tie-breaker guess. Janet was 668 away from the final Dow Jones closing, followed by Rachel 862 points away and Peter 1766 away. Dave S. (218 away) and Gloria T. (375 away) were tops among the six-pointers. The best Dow Jones guess of all the contestants was Jeff T., a mere 75 points away from the final close.

As it has been in past years, the Quiz really was not decided until the final day of the year. As late as December 29, Dave S. and Gloria T. were trading places back and forth in first and second place as the Dow Jones had a bit of  a rally into Answer D territory. Alas, their luck did not hold, and first the lead and then the crown fell back to Janet.

Rank	Score	Name
1	7	Janet C.
2	7	Rachel H.
3	7	Peter B.
4	6	Dave S.
5	6	Gloria T.
6	6	Stephanie A.
7	6	Russell V.
8	6	Sarah M.
9	6	Marcus S.
10	6	Grant M.
11	6	Ron D.
12	5	Cameron M.
13	5	Ellen Y.
14	5	Missy A.
15	5	Chris M.
16	5	Michael A.
17	4	Adam K.
18	4	Keila B.
19	4	Nadir Y.
20	4	Zhiqi Q.
21	4	Eric M.
22	4	Megan T.
23	4	Nicole C.
24	4	Miriam S.
25	3	Jeff T.
26	3	Stacey C.
27	3	Jeff C.
28	3	Todd C.
29	3	Matthew D.
30	3	Larry A.
31	3	Dawn K.
32	3	Chris C.
33	3	Jan M.
34	3	Jenny A.
35	3	Ben S.
36	3	Sarah T.
37	3	Sarah S.
38	2	Jason C.
39	2	Valerie M.
40	2	Pamela C.
41	2	Rachel F.
42	2	Ekrem S.
43	1	Mary A.
44	1	Kevin K.

Top Eleven

My aunt Janet C. is the big winner. Janet says, "All I can say is Shock and Awe! I start out each year anxious to get my first point. This year came in with a big shock (3 quick points) and I am in awe that I hung in there to the end. No advice from me so I guess I must gloat. I am in Prognostication heaven!
Almost time to start sweating it out for my first point in 2016. Good luck to all!" Janet gets gloating rights over the rest of her family, who did pretty awfully: Jeff C. (28th), Todd C. (29th), and Jason C. (38th).



My college friend Rachel H. is the first runner up. Rachel is also the big winner in the money pool. She parlayed her $5 initial investment into a $53 payday. That's much better than she did with the $5 she spent shorting the Dow Jones (which turned into $5.11) or the $5 she used to buy 0.015625 bitcoin (which appreciated to $6.80). Rachel says, "I'd like to thank the Academy of Mostly Random Selection, and the Institute of Persistence, and my manager, Bob."

In third place is Peter B., a bride friend of two of my bridge friends. This is by far his highest finish. Peter placed highest of the people in the Quiz who I haven't (yet) had the pleasure of meeting. Sadly, in the original post, I misidentified who he was. I was quite certain I knew which friends of mine I knew him through, but I was completely wrong. Very embarrassing for me!

In fourth place is my bridge friend Dave S. He would have been the big winner if the year had ended on December 29, and finishes in a respectable fourth place. Dave and I are simpatico in terms of life events, which we seem to accomplish within a few months of each other. In 2015 we both moved into a new house. Previously, we got our PhDs, got married, had our first child, and had our second child, each within a year of each other.

In fifth place is my bridge friend Gloria T.. who would have been first runner up if the year had ended on December 29. That would have made the year really special for her. Instead, she will probably best remember it as the year she got married.

In sixth place is my cousin Stephanie A., who led most of the year along with Janet. Stephanie was also the biggest monetary winner of the year. She parlayed a $50 babysitting barter into a nice paycheck of $183.50.

In seventh place is Russell V., my grad school friend and last year's winner. He would have been in the running if Zsa Zsa had kicked off, but she seems invincible. Pity poor Russell, who has two weeks to decide whether he will pick her again or finally part ways with her apparent immortality.

In eight place is Sarah M., my grad school friend and spouse of Russell V. It will undoubtedly sting that she did not quite reach her husband, who she last beat in 2013. This year it was just on the strength of the Dow Jones tie-breaker, where she was off by 1000 points while Russell was just 624 points away.

In ninth place is my college friend Marcus S., a climate scientist who always misses the hurricane question. He was VERY close this year, guessing that we would have B. 5 - 6 hurricanes rather than the four that we actually had. He correctly predicted El Nino lasting "into Septmeber," but just missed slightly on the total number of hurricanes.

In tenth place is my college friend Grant M. He routinely finishes in the top ten but has yet to win the whole thing. He was also the final money winner, investing $50 to win back his entry fee plus a $19 bonus. Grant bested Marcus in correctly picking the number of storms. He wrote, "As usual it comes down to El Niño. I think (a) and (b) are equally likely and I'm picking (a) because I expect it to be less popular." Grant and Marcus are the two that usually write the most about how they are thinking in picking their answers. One more side prognostication from Grant's 2014 entry: "I'm betting that Russell V. gives up on Zsa Zsa before I do. I will continue to predict her death until either she or I are dead."

In eleventh place, and rounding out the six-point scorers, is Ron D., father of my bridge friend Matthew D. Both Ron and Matthew have won a Quiz in the past and comprise what seems to me (based on a few emails I have been copied on) to be the bitterest rivalry in Quiz history. Ron gets gloating rights for another 12 months: Matthew stunk it up this year, finishing in 29th place with just 3 points.

Finally, in 44th place is Kevin K., husband of my wife's high school friend. He will be undoubtedly embarrassed at coming in dead last, but hopefully he will remember: failure is not the opposite of success, but rather an integral part of success! Just ask our runner-up Rachel H., who was also 44th place (though out of 45 contestants) in 2013 before achieving her current success.

Good luck to all in the 2016 Prognostication Quiz! Finish your research and get your entries in now!