2009 Prognostication: Post 2 of 14

The Miss America pageant was held on Saturday. The winner was Miss Indiana, Katie Stam (above). Her talent was singing, and she did a rendition of Via Dolorosa, a song that was completely foreign to me. Here is a singer called Sandi Patty singing the tune.

That means that the answer to Question 2 of the 2009 Prognostication Quiz is A (Vocal). A whopping 20 people predicted this: Stephanie, Jan, Pete C., Tina, Ted, Jeremiah, Kevin, Peter M., Heather, Katie, Liz, Ellen, Matthew, Ben, Sarah, Ana, Jeff B., Missy, Beth, and Ekrem. They all get one point. Six of these 20 also got the correct answer on the first question and are now 2-for-2! Congratulations to overall leaders Stephanie, Tina, Ted, Jeremiah, Peter M., and Heather!

It makes sense that most people would pick A (Vocal) the most often, as it had the highest probability of winning out, with 18 contestants choosing that as their talent. That assumes that all of the entrants have about an equal probability of winning, though. Some entrants (I know Liz did this at some point, though maybe not before she picked her answers) went to the Miss America web site to determine which entrants were the most homely looking. It also seems plausible to me that candidates from bigger states would have a higher probability of winning, since those states had a larger pool of talent/beauty to pick from.

What is interesting, though, is that while everyone would have done best to pick A if the goal had simply been to get the highest score (if I were paying $5000 for each correct answer, for example), the actual goal is to beat everyone else. Two people out of the 43 picked lower-probability answers: Valerie picked answer B (Classical Vocal) which had 4 contestants, and Janette picked answer E (Vocal AND piano), which only one contestant (Miss Kansas) had the guts to attempt. (It was Miss Kansas whom Liz thought had bad hair. It was surely no coincidence that she was eliminated in the first round.) It would have been fun if one of the long shots had come in, but not today.

I leave it to the nerdy contingent of my readership to come up with a quiz scenario (including the types of questions, the number of entrants, and how everyone else has answered) where it is sound winning strategy to pick the 1-in-50 choice over the 1-in-3 choice.

For my tastes, I find Ms. Stam's photo to be very creepy. It seems like it has been airbrushed to the point that she looks like she could star in an animated feature film. Does anyone else feel that, or is it just me? I'm thinking it looks something like the transformation of Cameron Diaz to her animated alter-ego:
Grant (one of the nerdy contingent) predicted that dance shows are up-and-coming in popular culture (American Idol is so yesterday's news) that the judges might be more likely to pick a dancer. Here are the top five finishers in the show:

1. Miss Indiana - Katie Stam (vocal)
2. Miss Georgia - Chasity Hardman (vocal)
3. Miss Iowa - Olivia Myers (dance)
4. Miss New York - Leigh Taylor Smith (vocal)
5. Miss Florida - Sierra Minott (dance)

So no great concentration of dancers, given that the night started with 18 vocalists and 17 dancers. The biggest statistical anomaly for the finals, in fact, was the dearth of instrumentalists. None of the 11 instrumentalists who started made the top 5. I have a feeling that is because that's the answer I chose, as a nod to all my fellow band geeks. I was dead last with 1-for-12 in last year's quiz, and I have retained my deep cellar status with an 0-for-3 start to this year's quiz.

Question 3 update: The two Super Bowl finalists have been chosen. It will be D. the Pittsburgh Steelers (70% likely to win, according to betting websites) agains E. another NFC team (the Arizona Cardinals). The Super Bowl is on Sunday!

Question 4 update: Like last year, all but one of the Golden Globe nominees for best drama were also chosen as Oscar nominees for best picture. The one change was Milk, which was honored by an Oscar nomination in lieu of D. Revolutionary Road (the four people who chose that film are out of luck). E. Slumdog Millionaire is the prohibitive favorite to win right now: 73% according to prediction markets. A. Benjamin Button is second at 10% likely, F. Milk is at 9%, and the other two are under 5%. The Oscars will air on February 22.

With those probabilities updated, here is the predicted leaderboard for the rest of the quiz, with my cousin Stephanie on top:

1. Stephanie
2. Pete C.
3. Tina
4. Ted
5. Jeremiah
6. Leanne
7. Kevin
8. Jan
9. Peter M.
10. Heather
11. Katie
12. Liz
13. Ellen
14. Zoe
15. Matthew

Good luck! Back in a week!