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2008 Prognostication: Posts 6 and 7 of 12

The Olympics are done! The US team disappointed a bit with their 36 gold medals, slightly fewer than their recent average of 38. The Chinese team certainly was impressive, ending with 51 gold medals, just over a sixth of the total. Good thing we had Michael Phelps on our side!

The 36 medals translates into answer B (34-36 gold medals total) on question 7 in the prognostication quiz. It was the most popular answer, with 9 people guessing that the pressure from the Chinese team might mean fewer medals for the U.S. Matthew B., Sandy, Chris, Beth W., Eric, Pete, Heather, Jeff, and Jodene all chose B. Matthew's correct answer gives him a total score of 4 and puts him (again) alone with the best score atop the leader board. Sandy and Chris remain one behind the leader with a total score of 3. Jeff's answer pulls him even with his wife Liz, sadly reducing her gloating capability. Jodene's correct answer is her first and pulls her out of the gutter. That leaves the depressed and abject Ryan alone in the basement with a score of zero. His wife Heather is crushing him under her heel with her correct answer.

I was also expecting that the question about the democracy index by the Economist might come this month. Sadly, I think that they have decided not to do that analysis this year. So question 1 will be retired with no answer.

That means that we have completed 7 questions, and have only 5 to go! Sadly, I have now been mathematically eliminated with my single correct answer. Even if I get all five of the remaining questions right, I will still be eclipsed by Matthew B. (For me to get all 5 right would also mean that Hillary would have to win the Democratic nomination on her way to the White House, which seems exceedingly unlikely at this point. I guess if Obama keeled over and died from a massive heart attack tomorrow or something....)

My prognostication for the best prognosticator would be either one of the three at the top of the leader board (Matthew B., Sandy, Chris) or one of the people with a score of two and with four feasible answers on the last five questions (Eric, Pete, Grant, Megan, Beth W.). After all, the Yankees seem unlikely at this point to win the World Series, the presidential election seems a shoo-in for Obama or McCain, and the Dow seems unlikely to rebound back to 13,500.

Next up are the Nobel Prizes in a month and a half! How exciting can you get?

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