2013 Prognostication Quiz, Final Question and WINNER

11. Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is currently at around 12,900. How will the Dow end up after what could be a wild and crazy 2013, with a fiscal cliff, a euro crisis, and a new Premier in China?
What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 12,000
b. 12,000 to 12,800
c. 12,800 to 13,600
d. 13,600 to 14,300
e. 14,300 to 15,000
f. greater than 15,000

It was indeed a wild year for American securities. Major stock indices rose 25 - 30%, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose from 13,104.14 to 16,576.66, an increase of 26.5%. This means the answer to Question 11 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is F.

Only two people guessed F: Sarah T. and Melissa, and only Sarah T. actually thought the Dow would rise so much. Melissa predicted the Dow would stay lower, but she was trying to get the lowest score in the Quiz and picked F in order to have what she thought was the best chance at missing. In a year of crazy underdogs, Melissa ended up scoring three points (she also scored on the Groundhog Day and Atlantic hurricane questions). Maybe she'll actually try this year and outscore everyone by a mile.

Sarah T. deserves all the kudos for her bold prediction, then. I certainly hope she emptied her bank accounts and maxed out her credit cards in order to buy stocks. Even if she was paying 19% interest on the credit cards, she would have made a tidy profit.

Leaderboard

 In the end, it was Matthew who prevailed in this low-scoring year. Of the seven people who made it to four points, he was the most bullish on the stock market, predicting an additional 298-point rise over Liz, who finishes this year as the runner-up.

The Quiz has never had such a dominating presence atop the Leaderboard Liz did this year, who had a stranglehold on the top spot from April 15 (when the Times won its Pulitzer Prizes) to December 23 (when Mikhail Kalashnikov passed on).

Rank	Score	Name	Tie-break
1	4	Matthew	14,299
2	4	Liz	14,001
3	4	Sarah M.	13,714
4	4	Chris C.	13,666
5	4	Michael	13,104
6	4	Larry	12,799
7	4	Pete C.	11,989
8	3	Sarah T.	15,436
9	3	Jeff	14,420
10	3	Marcus	14,337
11	3	Rachel F.	14,321
12	3	Russell	14,300
13	3	Jan	14,297
14	3	Dave	14,135
15	3	Ron	14,132
16	3	Ellen	14,043
17	3	Stephanie	14,027
18	3	Grant	13,792
19	3	Adrian	13,789
20	3	Valerie	13,741
21	3	Collette	13,650
22	3	Keila	13,600
23	3	Nadir	13,456
24	3	Gloria	13,280
25	3	Tina	13,000
26	3	Stacey	13,000
27	3	Melissa	12,346
28	3	Mary	11,987
29	3	Cameron	11,966
30	3	Chris M.	10,117
31	2	Janet	14,252
32	2	Ben	13,999
33	2	Todd	13,989
34	2	Peter B.	13,875
35	2	Ryan M.	13,792
36	2	Leanne	13,131
37	2	Paul	13,127
38	2	Miriam	10,003
39	2	Ekrem	0
39	2	Katie	0
41	1	Ryan C.	14,336
42	1	Zhiqi	13,770
43	1	Eric	13,487
44	1	Rachel H.	12,345
45	0	Megan	13,900

Winner!

A hearty congratulations to Matthew, pictured here toasting his victory, who has now won his second Prognostication Quiz. He also won it all back in 2009. Matthew's key to victory was correctly predicting two deaths (Nelson Mandela and Mikhail Kalashnikov) and the having a bullish Dow Jones prediction (14,299).

I asked him if he had any smug comments for Liz or any of the other people he defeated. He was suspiciously circumspect, acknowledging that it was a tough year for prognostication: "No smug comments - I think this year we were all joint last rather than anyone winning."

Runner-up

It was no small feat to dominate the Quiz standings for so much this year, even though the top spot trickled away from her in the final week. Liz took winning underdog positions in the first two questions (Freedom House and Groundhog Day) along with a bullish Dow Jones prediction (14,001) and trailed only Chris M., who got off to an even more amazing start before fading on the Pulitzer Prize question.

Liz remained upbeat and not particularly bitter at Matthew for nipping her in the home stretch: "Runner-up is better than I have ever done in many years of my other on-line attempting at predicting the future: fantasy football. So, I'm thrilled!"

Other notable scores

Sarah M. finished in third place with four points and a relatively bullish tie-break of 13,714, well ahead of her husband Russell, who only scored 3 points. Last year both scored six points, and the year before was Russell's big year when he finished as the runner-up in the 2011 Quiz. The main thing holding Russell back is his continued plugging for Zsa-zsa Gabor, the amputee nonagenarian, who continues to defy all logic and reason by not dying. Sarah M. wisely moved on after picking Gabor in 2012 and scored two points on the deaths of Nelson Mandela and Mikhail Kalashnikov.

Chris C. finished in fourth place with four points and a bullish tie-break of 13,666, one of which was his bold underdog prediction on the Oscar for best picture. Everyone and their mother was predicting that Lincoln would win best picture, but Chris C. was one of only three Quiz entrants who knew that Argo was the far better film and would eventually be recognized as such.

Michael (i.e., your humble Quizmaster) finished in fifth place, which was by far his best showing in the six years of the quiz, and a far cry from his last-place finish in the inaugural 2008 Quiz. I refused to be bullish or bearish on stocks, predicting that the Dow Jones would end the year where it started, at precisely 13,104.14. That failed to materialize.

Larry (your humble Quizmaster's father) also had his best showing ever by finishing in sixth place, scoring four points with a bearish tie-break of 12,799. His boldest prediction that helped land him in sixth was picking the underdog in the Kenyan elections. He was one of only three contestants to predict that.

Pete C. finished in seventh place, with the most bearish tie-break (11,989) of the septet that scored four points. His boldest prediction was picking an AFC also-ran to win the Super Bowl. He was the only entrant who made that prediction, and it came true when the Baltimore Ravens upset the heavily favored San Francisco 49ers.

Sarah T., Jeff, Marcus, Rachel F., and Russell all scored three points but had very bearish tie-break answers to finish in eighth to twelfth place. Any of them would have eclipsed both Liz and Matthew to win it all had they just been able to score a fourth point. I'm sure they're kicking themselves while they eagerly research their answers for a new chance in this year's Quiz.

Chris M. is our big riches-to-rags story of 2013. He scored three points by the Groundhog question in February and then wasn't heard from again the rest of the year. His super-bearish Dow guess of 10,117 put him at the bottom of all the three-point scorers, too, ending in 30th place after spending the first three months in 1st place. Chris M. was betting Obama would ruin the economy, but instead Obama only ended up ruining Chris M.'s chances to win the Quiz.

Megan is our big riches-to-rags story when starting from 2012. She was our runner-up in the 2012 Quiz, and dead last with an embarrassing zero points in this year's Quiz.

2014 Prognostication Quiz

Thanks to everyone for a fun year! And get your entries in for the 2014 Prognostication Quiz.