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2014 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 2 and 3, Groundhog and Football


2. Groundhog (February 2)

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.

What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (14)
b. No shadow (6)

Punxatawney Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter. Perhaps this should not have been surprising, given all the polar vortexes (vortices for the Latin purists) circulating around the United States this year. The correct answer to Question 2 of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is A. His shadow.
A total 34 out of 52 entrants picked A. This approximately matches the recent odds of a shadow appearing.


The Winters
Nadir Y.
Larry A.
Craig W.
Janet C.
Keila B.
Grant M.
Ben S.
Chris C.
Sarah M.
Russell V.
Ellen Y.
Jason C.
Cameron M.
Yue Nan
Ryan M.
Ekrem S.
Stacey C.
Dave S.
Gloria T.
Stephanie A.
Rachel F.
Jeff C.
Michael A.
Collette T.
Ron D.
Matthew D.
Adam K.
Sarah T.
Megan T.
Xing Yue
Liz K.
Jan M.
Jeffrey T.
Rachel H.

3. Football (February 2)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail? (Regular season wins and losses are indicated.)

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (Denver Broncos, 13-3)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (Seattle Seahawks, 13-3)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots, 12-4)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (Carolina Panthers, 12-4)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

I'm not entirely sure the Super Bowl has happened yet, since seemed to me that only one team showed up on the field last Sunday. Peyton Manning (the ghost of NFL past) was embarrassed by Russell Wilson (the ghost of NFL future). The Seattle Seahawks led the Denver Broncos by a score of 22-0 at halftime that grew to 43-8 by the end of the game. The correct answer to Question 3 of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is B. Seattle Seahawks.

Fifteen people picked the superlative Seahawks, who were a top seed. Fourteen people picked the baleful Broncos and spent a miserable afternoon hoping for a rally that never came.

The Twelfth Man
Nadir Y.
Larry A.
Janet C.
Keila B.
Grant M.
Ben S.
Chris C.
Sarah M.
Russell V.
Todd C.
Jenny A.
Ryan C.
Valerie M.
Tori V.
Katie M.

Leaderboard

Big kudos to Nadir Y. and Larry A. for answering correctly on the first three questions. They are now co-leaders, with Nadir holding a slight edge in the tiebreaking procedure. There's still a long way to go in this one, so stay hopeful!

On Question 4, Larry A. has picked Norway to win the most medals while Nadir Y. has chosen Canada. Either could take sole possession of first place should one of those prevail in the gold medal count. If the United States wins the most gold medals, Kelia B., Ben S., and Russell V. would score their third point and join the tie with the leaders. The same is true for Chris C. if underdog Germany rises to the top.

RankScoreName
13Nadir Y.
23Larry A.
32Todd C.
42Janet C.
52Keila B.
62Craig W.
72Grant M.
82Ben S.
92Chris C.
102Russell V.
112Sarah M.
121Jenny A.
131Jason C.
141Cameron M.
151Stephanie A.
161Yue Nan
171Stacey C.
181Ellen Y.
191Dave S.
201Gloria T.
211Rachel F.
221Jeff C.
231Valerie M.
241Tori V.
251Michael A.
261Collette T.
271Ron D.
281Katie M.
291Matthew D.
301Adam K.
311Sarah T.
321Ryan C.
331Megan T.
341Xing Yue
351Ryan M.
361Liz K.
371Jan M.
381Jeffrey T.
391Ekrem S.
401Rachel H.
410Melissa A.
420Chris M.
430Zhiqi Q.
440Adrian C.
450Dawn K.
460Marcus S.
470Zhangying
480Miriam S.
490Xiaoqi
500Bao Bin
510Hexiang
520Ling Chen



Twelve entrants still have a zero score, so no need to be overly worried (yet) about ending up alone in last place. That's certainly more embarrassing than Peyton Manning was on Super Bowl Sunday.


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