2014 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 11 and 12, Stocks and Bitcoin

The 2014 Prognostication Quiz has drawn to a close! Welcome to the last post of the year! 

11. Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index had an amazing year in 2013, rising by 25%. It is currently at around 16,300. Will the Dow continue its rapid climb in 2014, or are we in line for a large market correction?

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 15,000
b. 15,000 to 15,800
c. 15,800 to 16,600
d. 16,600 to 17,300
e. 17,300 to 18,000
f. greater than 18,000

It was a good year for stocks, as the US economy continued to recover from the recession. The most popular answer was D, with 15 contestants guessing the 2014 would be a moderately good year. Kudos to the 13 who predicted an even stronger year than that while avoiding the pitfall of overly rosy glasses. The Dow Jones finished the year at 17,823.07, so the answer to Question 11 of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is E.

The Medium Bulls

Russell V.

Sarah T.

Ryan M.

Sarah M.

Chris C.

Xing Yue

Megan T.

Jan M.

Adam K.

Liz K.

Marcus S.

Xiaoqi

Ryan C.

12. Bitcoin

For this year's quiz, we will add in a more comical end-of-year prediction from the world of finance. Bitcoin is a fledgling new currency that has made headlines this year both for its novelty and for its volatility. One bitcoin could be bought for $12.50 at the start of 2012 and sold for a stunning $1250 in early December. Will Bitcoin continue to be accepted and adopted by more and more people in 2014, or will interest fade and the market collapse?

How much will one bitcoin be worth at the end of 2014?
a. Under $200
b. $200 - $400
c. $400 - $600
d. $600 - $800
e. $800 - $1000
f. $1000 - $1200
g. over $1200

It was a bad year for Bitcoin, as it lost two-thirds of its value over the year to end at $319.43. Most people sniffed that one out. The most popular answer was actually the most pessimistic, with sixteen people choosing A. They missed out by a mere $119.44. Instead, it was these not quite so bearish twelve contestants ended 2014 with a well-earned point. The answer to Question 12 of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is B.

The Medium Bears

Russell V.

Jenny A.

Todd C.

Larry A.

Sarah T.

Nadir Y.

Stacey C.

Jeffrey T.

Yue Nan

Rachel F.

Jason C.

Ling Chen

13-15. Death

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2014? You get THREE guesses on this one. A through U managed to survive last year's quiz, while V through Z are fresh nonagenarian meat. PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

 There were no deaths this past month. In fact, there have been almost no deaths all year. Only two of our ninety-somethings kicked the bucket this year, yielding just four points for our contestants. This compares to 30 points on 5 deaths in 2013, 40 points on 7 deaths in 2012, 38 points on 4 deaths in 2011, and 65 points on 8 deaths in 2010.

Final Leaderboard

Larry had an impressive 2014 campaign, converting on the first three questions and 5 of the first six to lead the field through to last month. My cousin, Jenny, came roaring up to overtake him and claim first place for herself last month, but she was unable to hold off the last charge of Russell V., who followed up his good year with a stunning December. Russell went two-for-two in the final month along with a tiebreak guess that was just 421 points off of the Dow Jones final close. Our 2014 Prognostication Quiz winner is Russell V.!

Rank	Score	Name
1	7	Russell V.
2	7	Jenny A.
3	7	Todd C.
4	7	Larry A.
5	6	Sarah T.
6	6	Matthew D.
7	6	Nadir Y.
8	5	Ryan M.
9	5	Sarah M.
10	5	Chris C.
11	5	Ben S.
12	5	Keila B.
13	5	Stacey C.
14	5	Craig W.
15	4	Xing Yue
16	4	Megan T.
17	4	Jan M.
18	4	Adam K.
19	4	Grant M.
20	4	Tori V.
21	4	Janet C.
22	4	Dave S.
23	4	Chris M.
24	3	Liz K.
25	3	Katie M.
26	3	Jeffrey T.
27	3	Ron D.
28	3	Marcus S.
29	3	Valerie M.
30	3	Yue Nan
31	3	Rachel F.
32	3	Stephanie A.
33	3	Jason C.
34	3	Ellen Y.
35	3	Melissa A.
36	3	Xiaoqi
37	3	Cameron M.
38	3	Miriam S.
39	3	Ekrem S.
40	3	Rachel H.
41	3	Hexiang
42	2	Ryan C.
43	2	Dawn K.
44	2	Collette T.
45	2	Michael A.
46	2	Jeff C.
47	2	Adrian C.
48	2	Gloria T.
49	2	Ling Chen
50	2	Bao Bin
51	1	Zhangying
52	1	Zhiqi Q.

Winner: Russell V.

Russell is my friend from graduate school who is now Professor of Immunology at the University of California, Berkeley and also a part-time Mythbuster (literally - skip to 2:48 for proof). Russell wins a deluxe gift bag for his impressive showing, the brilliant prize that barely eluded him when he almost won on the last day of 2012.

"I'm truly in a state of shock. After years of coming close, but being foiled time and again by the eternal Zsa Zsa Gabor, I was steeling myself for another disappointment this year. So this is truly a fantastic surprise. I'm so proud, I plan to put Prognostication Quiz winner, 2014 as a line on my CV. Now, if only I could remember the strategy I used this year...! I do remember I spent quite a bit of time on research, but other than that, alas, I have no advice to offer. Now that I've won, I can't decide if I should finally not pick Zsa Zsa, so that she can finally die in peace..."

Runner-up: Jenny A.

Jenny A. is my cousin who owns and operates a dental practice in Zimmerman, Minnesota. (See her website if you are in the neighborhood and need a root canal. I can vouch for her services: she pulled my wisdom teeth.) This was her first entry into the Quiz, and she almost won it all! Not bad for a rookie.

"Well I am SO thrilled. I generally am preoccupied with the busy life I have created so I have never participated in this quiz. I really feel like it was luck. (I am lucky.) I would like to think I create some of it.  I just answered the questions, didn't look up anything except what a Bitcoin was. Honestly I had never heard of it.  I answered with what I wanted and what seemed right. My method was not spend too much time and go with your gut instinct and trust that inner voice. This works pretty well for me"

Honorable Mentions

In third place is my cousin Todd C., who went two-for-three last month and one-for-two this month to come very close to winning it all on his own account. His 7 points was more than double the average score of his mother (Janet C., 4), brother (Jason C., 3) and father (Jeff C., 2), giving him bragging rights for all of 2015.

In fourth place is my hard-luck father, Larry, who actually was alone or tied atop the leaderboard for the entire year, from the first post to the last. He was ultimately done in by his reasonable (but wrong) gut feeling that the stock market asset bubble was due to pop in 2014. He predicted such a large downward correction that he ends up in fourth place this year, behind Jenny and Todd, who also predicted big drops in the stock market.

In fifth place is my grad school friend Sarah T. She was languishing in 10th place last month before matching our champion Russell in going two-for-two this month. Had she just been able to eke out an extra death, she would have won the whole shebang, too, as her tiebreak guess was just 333 points off reality, 88 points closer than Russell. Sarah was in an identical position last year, when she was one point off the seven-way tie at the top but with a better tiebreak than any of them. Sarah trashed her mother (Collette T., 2) along with all of my grad school friends, save the pesky Russell. Congratulations on a great two-year run, Sarah!

In sixth place is my contract bridge friend, perennial challenger, and two time winner Matthew D., who actually had the most winning scenarios going into the last month (that I painstakingly enumerated at the end of the last post). He was part of the answer D plurality on the stock market, coming so close to his third victory in the seven years of Quiz.

In seventh place is my cousin Nadir Y., who had an impressive showing but still was only managed third out of my cousins. (We are a large group of cousins - my father was one of 11 siblings, all with children.) Nadir has come a long way since he tied for last place in 2011 when he put up with my frequent joshing about being Nadir in the nadir. He finished in the middle of the pack in 2012 and 2013 before cracking the top ten this year. If he continues his climb, he will be winning it all very soon.

In 8th place overall is Ryan M., who is a co-worker of Megan T., one of the inaugural Quiz contestants way back in 2008. Ryan bested Megan by a point this year, but more impressive was his tiebreak, which was an astonishing 18 points away from the final Dow Jones close. Wow. He beat every other contestant on the tiebreak.

Russell took it all this year, but his wife Sarah M. also scored pretty well. She scored 5 points to his 7, and came just 22 points away from guessing the Dow Jones, which was the second-best overall tiebreak guess. That was good for 9th place overall. She lost to her husband, but beat her daughter Tori V., who nonetheless posted an impressive 4 points in her first year of the Quiz. Sarah looks to beating Russell again in 2015, as she did in 2013.

Rounding out the top ten is Chris C., who is a co-worker of my college friend Ekrem. He beats his wife Keila B., who won the 2012 Prognostication Quiz and was just two places behind Chris this year in 12th place.

Finally, in 52nd place out of our 52 entrants is Zhiqi Q., another co-worker of Ekrem and Chris C. I'm not sure how she will show her face at the office after such an embarrassing showing, but she will have a chance to redeem herself in the 2015 Prognostication Quiz. Good luck to her and to all!