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2016 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 2 and 3, Groundhog and Football

2. Groundhog (February 2)

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow (which he did last year), it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.

What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (16)
b. No shadow (6)


Punxatawney Phil predicted an early spring this year. That means the answer to Question 2 of the 2016 Prognostication Quiz is b. No shadow. Hooray for early spring, but too bad for the 34 contestants who wanted more winter.

Spring Springers
Liz K.
Grant M.
Nadir Y.
Ellen Y.
Chris M.
Dylan S.
Zhiqi Q.
Rachel F.
Stuart P.
Ramy Y.
Valerie M.
Katie M.

3. Football (February 7)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all this year or will an upstart prevail? Recent history has seen a proliferation of successful upstarts. In the NFL playoffs between 1995 to 2004, #1 seeds won 6 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won 2. In the NFL playoffs from 2005 to 2014, #1 seeds won only 2 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won an astonishing 6. What will happen this year? Regular season wins and losses are indicated in parentheses.

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (12-4 Denver Broncos)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (15-1 Carolina Panthers)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (12-4 New England Patriots)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (13-3 Arizona Cardinals)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

For now the second year in a row, both of the top seeds in the playoffs made it to the Super Bowl. Last year the New England Patriots downed the Seattle Seahawks in a battle of #1 seeds. This year, aging superstar Peyton Manning led the Denver Broncos over the young MVP Cam Newton and his Carolina Panthers. That means the answer to Question 3 of the 2016 Prognostication Quiz is a. Denver Broncos.

The two Super Bowl wins by a #1 seed in the past two years are as many won by #1 seeds in the prior 12 years, as alluded to in the text of the question. No one has really bought the idea that parity is so great that everyone should be picking E and F every year. This year, for example, answers A and B were the most popular (11 contestants each) followed closely by F (10 contestants), C (7), D (4), and E (3).

Experience is better than Youth
Liz K.
Pete C.
Tina A.
Nadir Y.
Ellen Y.
Larry A.
Stacey C.
Rachel H.
Cameron M.
Sarah T.
Dave S.

Leader Board

Congratulations to Liz K., who is the only contestant who has gone a perfect three-for-three for an auspicious start to her 2016.

Precisely half of the contestants now have at least one point. If you are not one of them, don't fret yet. There's a lot of Quiz yet to be played.

RankScoreName
13Liz K.
22Pete C.
32Tina A.
42Grant M.
52Nadir Y.
62Ellen Y.
72Chris M.
82Larry A.
91Dylan S.
101Zhiqi Q.
111Michael A.
121Rachel F.
131Stuart P.
141Stacey C.
151Rachel H.
161Ramy Y.
171Valerie M.
181Gemma D.
191Cameron M.
201Sarah T.
211Katie M.
221Dave S.
231Zachary S.
240Miriam S.
250Missy A.
260Sarah M.
270Ron D.
280Matthew D.
290Russell V.
300Sarah S.
310Jason C.
320Keila B.
330Janet C.
340Chris C.
350Adam K.
360Eric M.
370Stephanie A.
380Collette T.
390Gloria T.
400Marcus S.
410Jeff C.
420Ben S.
430Adrian C.
440Peter B.
450Aidan M.
460John E.


4. Film (February 28)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year? These are the five nominees for the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, which usually contains the best picture for the Academy, as well (although not last year, when Birdman won out over Boyhood et al.)

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
a. Carol
b. Mad Max: Fury Road
c. The Revenant
d. Room
e. Spotlight
f. none of the above: some other film will win


After sweeping the BAFTA awards, C. The Revenant is now considered the favorite to win the Best Picture at the Academy Awards on February 28. Ellen Y. is the only one of the top leaders to pick C. The Revenant to win, and she will join Liz. K. in a two-way tie next month if that happens. Liz K. needs E. Spotlight to win instead in order to extend her winning streak to four in a row and remain alone atop the leader board. That would also keep Grant M. and Nadir Y. close on her heels at one point back. Larry A. picked A. Carol, and he can advance to a two-way tie with Liz K. if that wins. Finally, Pete C., Tina A., and Chris M. all chose F. None of the above, and they will advance to a four-way tie for first with Liz K. if The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, or The Martian wins Best Picture.

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