2016 Prognostication Quiz: Question 1, Freedom

Welcome to the first post of the new Quiz! We have 46 contestants this year, up two from last  year. I look forward to an exciting year, hopefully with more death than the single celebrity nonagenarian we bagged last year.

1. Freedom

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many countries it calculates to be free, partly free, or not free. The 2015 report calculated that 89 of the world’s 195 nations were free in 2014. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2014? Note: the nine worst free countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Jamaica, Lesotho, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best partly free countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Ecuador, Georgia, Indonesia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tanzania, and Ukraine. The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (4), 87 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 88 total
c. no change (6), 89 total
d. plus one (4), 90 total
e. plus two or three (3), 91 - 92 total
f. plus four or more (3), 93 or more total

It's another bad year for freedom. The total freedom in the world declined again, for the tenth year in a row, according to the report from Freedom House. Even worse, the decline in overall freedom struck a decisive blow to the group of "free" countries: Dominican Republic, Lesotho, and Montenegro were all downgraded to "partly free." No country was upgraded to free, though Freedom House did give plaudits to Burkina Faso, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka for holding more open elections. Overall, then, the number of free countries declined from 89 to 86. This means the answer to the first question in the 2016 Prognostication Quiz is A. Minus Two or Worse.

My sense in answering Question 1 was a disturbing trend of continued repression within democracies in Africa and the Middle East. I figured the answer might be A or B, and I picked A because I figured fewer people would pick it. In the end, I was barely right. Not counting me, seven people picked A while eight picked B. Grant M. shared my pessimistic view, referring to the 1958 novel by Nigerian author Chinua Achebe: "Things fall apart; the center cannot hold. Even Lesotho is veering authoritarian"

The Pessimists

Tina A.

Michael A.

Grant M.

Liz K.

Pete C.

Gemma D.

Chris M.

Larry A.

11. Storms (November 30)

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were four hurricanes in 2016, six in 2014, a paltry two in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, and an all-time record fifteen in 2005.
 
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more

I already need to clarify the scoring, due to the unusual occurrence of hurricane Alex, which formed and reached hurricane status in January. Normally, I count December hurricanes but not January, since December 31 is the end of all scoring. Since Question 11 is about the 2016 hurricane season, which starts in the summer, I will not count Alex for the 2016 total. If anyone would like to change their answer to Question 11 based on this information, please let me know and I will change it for you.


Marcus S. commented, "On the rarity of Alex: apparently the last time a hurricane formed in January was 1938 (one hurricane in January 1955 was a holdover from December of the previous year). So pretty rare. And an argument could be made that this particular hurricane formed in waters that would not have been warm enough to support formation absent global warming."

13-15. Death

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2016? You get THREE guesses on this one. Amazingly, A through Y were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it. Z is the only fresh nonagenarian meat this year. (The 2016 birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 99-year-old has a 74% chance of seeing 2016. If you pick someone who kicks it before the entry deadline, you will be asked to pick again.) PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

Abe Vigoda passed away on January 26 (this was a great birthday present for me). This veteran actor, pictured above in a still from The Godfather, now sleeps with the fishes. Amazingly, only one person picked 95-year-old Abe Vigoda to pass away this year. The number is probably that low because I did not list Abe Vigoda as a possible answer. I admit that Abe Vigoda would have been a good pick. I only had three slots the year that Abe turned 90, and I went with Prince Philip, Nancy Reagan, and John Glenn instead. This means that Peter B. had to include Abe Vigoda as a write-in candidate. Peter B. chose celebrities B, C, and E to die this year, and then added as an aside, "also, as a no-points bonus, Abe Vigoda. Dude's gotta die eventually."  Peter B. gets my kudos for already being one-for-one in additional prognostications.

Leader Board

Congratulations to the 8 early scorers! Odds are good that none of you (us) will win the thing, so bask in what little glory you can collect right now.

Rank	Score	Name
1	1	Tina A.
2	1	Michael A.
3	1	Grant M.
4	1	Liz K.
5	1	Pete C.
6	1	Gemma D.
7	1	Chris M.
8	1	Larry A.
9	0	Sarah S.
10	0	Dylan S.
11	0	Jason C.
12	0	Zhiqi Q.
13	0	Russell V.
14	0	Keila B.
15	0	Janet C.
16	0	Chris C.
17	0	Matthew D.
18	0	Rachel F.
19	0	Adam K.
20	0	Eric M.
21	0	Stuart P.
22	0	Ron D.
23	0	Stacey C.
24	0	Stephanie A.
25	0	Collette T.
26	0	Rachel H.
27	0	Gloria T.
28	0	Marcus S.
29	0	Ramy Y.
30	0	Valerie M.
31	0	Sarah M.
32	0	Nadir Y.
33	0	Jeff C.
34	0	Ben S.
35	0	Cameron M.
36	0	Sarah T.
37	0	Ellen Y.
38	0	Katie M.
39	0	Dave S.
40	0	Adrian C.
41	0	Peter B.
42	0	Aidan M.
43	0	John E.
44	0	Zachary S.
45	0	Missy A.
46	0	Miriam S.

Also, a note on tiebreaking: For this year's leader board listings, ties will be broken based on the current status of the Dow Jones. Basically, we pretend the year ended today and list who would have won.

2. Groundhog (February 2)

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow (which he did last year), it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.

What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (16)
b. No shadow (6)

Of the leaders, Tina, Michael, Pete, Gemma, and Larry all picked A. Shadow, while Grant, Liz, and Chris all picked B. No shadow. Tune in tomorrow for the exciting rodent news.

3. Football (February 7)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all this year or will an upstart prevail? Recent history has seen a proliferation of successful upstarts. In the NFL playoffs between 1995 to 2004, #1 seeds won 6 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won 2. In the NFL playoffs from 2005 to 2014, #1 seeds won only 2 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won an astonishing 6. What will happen this year? Regular season wins and losses are indicated in parentheses.

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (12-4 Denver Broncos)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (15-1 Carolina Panthers)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (12-4 New England Patriots)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (13-3 Arizona Cardinals)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

Only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers are left to face off in Sunday's Super Bowl, with the Panthers as the current favorites to win. Of the leaders, Tina, Liz, Pete, and Larry picked A. Broncos while I am the only one who picked B. Panthers.