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2014 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 8, 9, and 10

8. House

Republicans currently control the US House of Representatives, with a 234-seat majority. How will that change after mid-term elections?

 What will happen with the House Republican caucus?
a. They will hold steady or gain more seats (234 or more total)
b. They will lose seats, but keep control of the House (218 to 233 total)
c. They will lose control of the House (0 to 217 total)

John Boehner and his colleagues picked up 15 seats from the Democrats, and only lost three (with three recounts and two runoffs still to come). As Quizmaster, I was quite relieved that the Republicans did well enough that we didn't have to wait until a January runoff in order to call this question. The Republican caucus stands right now at 244 seats, and can only get bigger. The answer to Question 8 of the of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is A. The Republicans will gain seats in the House.

The presidential party usually loses seats in the mid-term elections, so it is not too surprising that 19 people picked the Republicans to gain seats.

The Moderate Republicans
Larry A.
Keila B.
Matthew D.
Russell V.
Nadir Y.
Todd C.
Craig W.
Chris C.
Sarah M.
Stacey C.
Jenny A.
Tori V.
Megan T.
Jan M.
Rachel H.
Hexiang
Melissa A.
Ekrem S.
Chris M.

9. Senate

Democrats currently control the US Senate, with a 54-seat majority. How will that change after mid-term elections?

 What will happen with the Senate Democratic caucus?
a. They will hold steady or gain more seats (54 or more total)
b. They will lose seats, but keep control of the Senate (50 to 53 total)
c. They will lose control of the Senate (0 to 49 total)

Reminding voters over and over about the policies of the unpopular president turned into election gold for Mitch McConnell and his fellow Senate Republicans. The Republican Caucus will is currently at a whopping 53 seats, with one more left to be decided by a runoff election. The answer to Question 9 of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is therefore C. The Democrats will lose control of the Senate.

The presidential party does usually lose seats in mid-term elections, but very few professional pundits were predicting in January that the Democrats would get the drubbing that they got. Kudos to the savvy six who sniffed out the massive year that Republicans would have in the mid-term elections.

The Die-Hard Republicans
Matthew D.
Jenny A.
Ekrem S.
Grant M.
Chris M.
Sarah T.

10. Storms

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were a paltry two hurricanes in 2013, ten in 2012, seven in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004.
 
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more


Every year I hope that Marcus S., our resident climate scientist, will correctly guess the hurricanes question.   Marcus noted in his entry that 2014 would "probably [be] an ENSO neutral year, and 7 is approximately the average number of hurricanes in the ENSO-neutral years (as defined by average MEI index over Oct-Sep being less than 0.5, absolute value)." I'm not sure what ENSO or MEI are, but he certainly sounds like he knows what he is talking about. Having arrived at his prediction of 7 hurricanes, he then naturally chose answer C. 7-8.

In reality, it turned out to be a down year for storms as well as Democrats this year. The Atlantic had only 9 total tropical depressions, 8 of which turned into named storms. Just six of those turned into hurricanes, an agonizing single hurricane short of Marcus's prediction. The answer to Question 9 of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is therefore a heartbreaking B. 5-6.

Kudos to the ten people who beat the climate scientist at his own game. Better luck next year, Marcus.

At fives and sixes
Todd C.
Jenny A.
Ben S.
Tori V.
Janet C.
Dave S.
Ryan M.
Chris M.
Sarah T.
Melissa A.

13-15. Death

Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2014? You get THREE guesses on this one. PLEASE PICK THREE ANSWERS!

 Who will not survive 2014?

 p. Ben Bradlee, former Editor of the Washington Post (93)

Ben Bradlee was best known for being executive editor of the Washington Post in 1972 and making the editorial decision to back reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein as they probed the break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters at the Watergate hotel. Bradlee became so popular that he was even portrayed by Jason Robards in the 1976 film All the President's Men. He was not so popular as a prediction to die in 2014, however.

QuizGate

Jeff C.
Ling Chen

With the correct prediction of Ben Bradlee's death, Jeff C. advances from 1 point to 2. Jeff is probably yawning at that result, having previously acknowledging that he was having a down year and already looking forward to his answers to the 2015 Prognostication Quiz. It was a bigger deal for Ling Chen, meanwhile, who advances from 0 points to 1. This propitious prediction drags Ling Chen out of the hated Quiz basement. That death prognostication was even more impressively prescient because it was the only answer that Ling Chen chose for the death questions. Perhaps due in part to the fact that English is not their native language (keep studying!), Ling Chen only chose one answer for Questions 13-15 instead of the THREE ANSWERS that I VERY CLEARLY REQUESTED IN ALL CAPS.

Zhiqi Q. has now sadly replaced Ling Chen at the bottom of the rankings, with the tiebreakers taken into account. It may be a battle for the bottom as well as the top this year.


Leaderboard

The top of the leaderboard all about Jenny A., who was a scintillating three-for-three on this month's questions. She is now on top of the leaderboard, as she has a better tie-break than two-for-three Todd C. and long-time leader Larry A., who had held the top rank since April. Even sadder, although Larry and Todd are in a tie for the top score, they have almost no chance of emerging victorious after the final two questions are tallied. Larry and Todd sensibly predicted that the Republicans would have a good year in the elections while simultaneously predicting a fall in the Dow for the year, imagining that Republicans would advance in congress due to a bad economy. Much to his chagrin, the Republican victories came despite a thriving stock market, not because of it. Larry thought the Dow would end up at 14,444, and Todd guessed 15,123, each of which will lose to the slightly less bearish prediction of 15,770 of Jenny.

11. Stocks

What will be the year-end close for the Dow?
a. under 15,000
b. 15,000 to 15,800
c. 15,800 to 16,600
d. 16,600 to 17,300
e. 17,300 to 18,000
f. greater than 18,000

12. Bitcoin

How much will one bitcoin be worth at the end of 2014?
a. Under $200
b. $200 - $400
c. $400 - $600
d. $600 - $800
e. $800 - $1000
f. $1000 - $1200
g. over $1200

Right now, the Dow is at 17,688 and one bitcoin costs $380. It seems likely, then, that Question 11 will be D, E, or F, while Question 12 will be B or C.

Several of our potential winners were very strong in the tie-break than the trio currently atop the leaderboard: Russell chose 17,402, Chris opted for 17,331, Matthew guessed 17,289, and Ben picked 17,236.

 Scenario D + B
Matthew wins it all with 7 points in a tie-break over Jenny, Todd, and Larry.

Scenario D + C
Matthew wins if the Dow ends the year between 16,600 and 17,262.50, and Ben wins if the Dow ends the year between 17262.51 and 17,300. Each would win with 7 points in a tie-break over the other.

Scenario E + B
Russell wins it all with 7 points in a tie-break over Jenny, Todd, and Larry. If the Quiz ended today, Russell would be our 2014 champion. Russell has a penchant for dramatic finishes in the Quiz, as he came agonizingly close to winning in 2012.

Scenario E + C
Matthew wins if the Dow ends the year between 17,300 and 17,310, Chris wins if the Dow ends the year between 17,310 and 17,366.5, and Russell wins if the Dow ends the year between 17,366.5 and 18,000. Each would win with 6 points in a seven-way tie-break over the other two plus Jenny, Todd, Larry, and Ben.

Scenario F + B
Jenny wins with 7 points in a tie-break over Todd and Larry.

Scenario F + C
Matthew wins with 6 points in a tie-break over Jenny, Todd, Larry, and Ben.

Scenario More Death
Todd needs Beverly Cleary or Betty White to pass on plus any Scenario except D + C, while Larry needs Zsa Zsa Gabor to kick the bucket along with the Dow ending up in range D or F. Others could sneak into victory with an appropriate death (or two, or three), as well.

Scenario More Storms
Matthew would probably win if the Atlantic Ocean cranked out one more late hurricane this year. We have had six hurricanes so far. Matthew guessed we would have 7 or 8. The only exception is that Russell would win with one more storm in Scenario E + C along with the Dow ending the year between 17,345.5 and 18,000.


RankScoreName
16Jenny A.
26Todd C.
36Larry A.
46Matthew D.
55Russell V.
65Nadir Y.
75Ben S.
85Keila B.
95Craig W.
104Sarah T.
114Sarah M.
124Ryan M.
134Chris C.
144Stacey C.
154Grant M.
164Tori V.
174Janet C.
184Dave S.
194Chris M.
203Megan T.
213Xing Yue
223Adam K.
233Jan M.
243Katie M.
253Ron D.
263Valerie M.
273Stephanie A.
283Ellen Y.
293Melissa A.
303Cameron M.
313Miriam S.
323Ekrem S.
333Rachel H.
343Hexiang
352Liz K.
362Jeffrey T.
372Yue Nan
382Rachel F.
392Marcus S.
402Jason C.
412Xiaoqi
422Dawn K.
432Collette T.
442Michael A.
452Jeff C.
462Adrian C.
472Gloria T.
482Bao Bin
491Ryan C.
501Ling Chen
511Zhangying
521Zhiqi Q.

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