8. Yachts (September)
The oldest active trophy in international sport is up for grabs this year with the 34th running of the America's Cup. The challenging Royal Swedish Yacht Club will take on the defending Golden Gate Yacht Club.Who will win the America's Cup?
a. The Golden Gate Yacht Club
b. The Royal Swedish Yacht Club
The Americans kept the America's Cup this year, and the answer to Question 8 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is A. The Golden Gate Yacht Club of Larry Ellison's Team Oracle.
I made some mistakes in my phrasing of the question due to my naivete regarding the event. Although the Royal Swedish Yacht Club was listed as the "challenger of record," the actual challenger is chosen by an initial competition (the Louis Vuitton Cup). Emirates Team New Zealand bested the Royal Swedish Yacht Club and the Sicily Circle of Sailing to earn the right to take on the Golden Gate Yacht Club. Since the Americans won, this mistake had no consequence on the quiz, but had the challengers won, I would have credited a point to everyone who answered B.
I expected this to be an amusing yawner of an event, but it turned out to be quite an engaging contest. The defending champion gets to write the rules for each round of the America's Cup, and the Golden Gate Yacht Club tried to make things exciting by choosing AC72 catamarans that can travel up to twice the wind speed and maxing out at 45 miles per hour. These conditions were exciting but dangerous, and sadly led to the death of a Swedish sailor in a preliminary round.
Also in the preliminary rounds, the Golden Gate Yacht Club was caught cheating and assessed a two-race penalty, meaning that they would need to win 11 raced to claim the America's Cup, while the Emirates Team New Zealand would only need to win 9 races. The Americans then got off to a horrible start, losing 3 of the first 11 races. At that point, the Golden Gate Yacht Club needed to win eight straight raced to prevail, while the Emirates Team New Zealand would emerge victorious with just one more race. At that point, an oddsmaker might put the Americans' chances at 1 in 32,000, but those clever Oracle engineers must have figured something out to give them back the advantage, because they proceeded to reel off the 8 wins and retain the America's Cup.
The Plentiful Patriots
Pete C.
Larry
Keila
Ekrem
Sarah T.
Ron
Rachel H.
Chris C.
Jeff
Paul
Ryan M.
Rachel F.
Nadir
Jan
Dave
Janet
Gloria
Ryan C.
Stacey
Mary
Matthew
Todd
Leanne
Marcus
Grant
Tina
Russell
Ellen
Adrian
Sarah M.
Collette
Michael
Miriam
9. Peace (October)
Below is a list of individuals and groups who created buzz surrounding the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize. Many of them will be nominated again in 2013. Due to the length of the list and the unpredictability of the process (the European Union was not thought to be a strong contender but won anyway last year, for example), you get THREE guesses on this one. They are listed in very rough order with the favorites toward the start and longer shots at the end.The 2013 Nobel Peace prize went to Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, for their "extensive work to eliminate chemical weapons." This was not one of my options for top favorites of last year's prize, and no one wrote it in.
This shows how difficult it is to pick the Peace Prize. When I wrote the question in December, the OPCW was not anywhere on the radar. Since the news in Syria has brought that organization to the forefront and the Nobel Committee (it seems to me) has been trying to pick more winners that actively promote peace rather than, say, heap more laurels on aging politicians for good deeds from long ago.
My sister Missy (who has already failed in her attempt at a zero score this year) picked me to win the Nobel Peace Prize this year. She came very close with that one, certainly, as I am a well known blogger for peace and drug legalization (which would increase world peace by reducing crime-related deaths). Cameron M. wrote in Angela Merkel, and Adrian wrote in Hillary Clinton.
The most impressive write-in by far, though, was Grant's guessing of Malala Yousafzai (pictured above with Jon Stewart), the Pakistani education activist who was shot by the Taliban in an assassination attempt. Yousafzai was certainly the people's favorite in the weeks before the announcement, and she did a crazy number of television interviews to promote freedom of education. (A fawning Jon Stewart deadpanned, "I know your father is backstage and he is very proud of you, but would he be mad if I adopted you?")
Leaderboard
Although most people picked the Americans to win the Cup, our previous leader, Liz, opted for the underdog challengers. Two others have now joined her at the top of the leaderboard. Kudos to Larry and Pete C., who now share the lead with Liz. (Liz does have the rosier view of the markets this year and thus remains in the lead with the probable tiebreaker taken into account.)4 Liz
4 Larry
4 Pete C.
3 Marcus
3 Jan
3 Dave
3 Grant
3 Chris C.
3 Keila
3 Tina
3 Stacey
3 Mary
3 Chris M.
2 Jeff
2 Rachel F.
2 Russell
2 Matthew
2 Janet
2 Ron
2 Ellen
2 Stephanie
2 Todd
2 Adrian
2 Valerie
2 Sarah M.
2 Collette
2 Nadir
2 Gloria
2 Leanne
2 Paul
2 Michael
2 Cameron
2 Miriam
2 Ekrem
2 Katie
1 Sarah T.
1 Ryan C.
1 Ben
1 Peter B.
1 Ryan M.
1 Zhiqi
1 Eric
1 Melissa
1 Rachel H.
0 Megan
The fact that another strong favorite won an event means that lots of people are winning points. Only one person remains with a goose egg. Alack and alas for Megan, who was last year's runner-up. She has fallen so far, so fast. While she has not been mathematically eliminated, she needs some serious help. For starters, Beverly Cleary, Kirk Douglas, and Zsa Zsa Gabor could all drop dead soon. It could happen.
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