Barack Obama has prevailed in his bid for the White House. This has seemed likely for some time, but was a bold call back in December. Yet, 8 of the 27 entrants picked him on question 10 of the 2008 Prognostication Quiz. (I was one of the 12 people who picked Hilary Clinton to prevail.) The early Obamaniacs were Jeremiah, Laura, Pete, Tina, Ryan, Eric, Jodene, and Rob.
While Obama's win was easily predicted since the last Quiz update, we have had a much bigger development on another front. The Economist has finally published its latest democracy index report. That means that we will have an answer to question one after all. I had given up on the democracy index report being published at all this year.
Here are the bottom five from the previous report:
North Korea 1.03
Central African Republic 1.61
Chad 1.65
Togo 1.75
Myanmar (Burma) 1.77
Here is the summary of the best and worst democracies as of September, according to The Economist:
As you see, three countries (North Korea, Chad, and Myanmar) are still in the worst five. The Central African Republic has crept up to sixth worst, but has advanced out of the top five. Not one person picked the C.A.R. to improve, though. In contrast, Togo jumped a full 12 ranks. Savvy researchers no doubt figured that the relatively peaceful election that took place in October of 2007 ensured that Togo would improve. (I hadn't done that research, sadly, and was one of the ten people who guessed that the bottom five would remain the same. This means, of course, that the new development will not help my sad status of being alone in last place in my own quiz.)
The Togo optimists were Grant, Matthew D., Sandy, Ryan, Eric, Ekrem, and Heather. Was that enough to change the probable outcome of the quiz? Sandy and Eric do join Matthew B. and Pete with five points for the year, but can either of them beat Matthew's (relatively) good guess on the tie-break?
No! Matthew B. remains most likely to win it all, with a Dow prediction of 13250. Sandy is in second with 13728, then Pete with 13931, and then Eric with 14257.
The only other likely scenario is if we get two more hurricanes this season. In that case, Eric would win unchallenged with a score of six, and Grant would be second with a score of five. While I still think it unlikely that we get two more, it is certainly possible. A storm organized itself today off the coast of Central America (tropical depression seventeen). Will that turn into the season's eighth hurricane? Stay tuned to find out!
While Obama's win was easily predicted since the last Quiz update, we have had a much bigger development on another front. The Economist has finally published its latest democracy index report. That means that we will have an answer to question one after all. I had given up on the democracy index report being published at all this year.
Here are the bottom five from the previous report:
North Korea 1.03
Central African Republic 1.61
Chad 1.65
Togo 1.75
Myanmar (Burma) 1.77
Here is the summary of the best and worst democracies as of September, according to The Economist:
As you see, three countries (North Korea, Chad, and Myanmar) are still in the worst five. The Central African Republic has crept up to sixth worst, but has advanced out of the top five. Not one person picked the C.A.R. to improve, though. In contrast, Togo jumped a full 12 ranks. Savvy researchers no doubt figured that the relatively peaceful election that took place in October of 2007 ensured that Togo would improve. (I hadn't done that research, sadly, and was one of the ten people who guessed that the bottom five would remain the same. This means, of course, that the new development will not help my sad status of being alone in last place in my own quiz.)
The Togo optimists were Grant, Matthew D., Sandy, Ryan, Eric, Ekrem, and Heather. Was that enough to change the probable outcome of the quiz? Sandy and Eric do join Matthew B. and Pete with five points for the year, but can either of them beat Matthew's (relatively) good guess on the tie-break?
No! Matthew B. remains most likely to win it all, with a Dow prediction of 13250. Sandy is in second with 13728, then Pete with 13931, and then Eric with 14257.
The only other likely scenario is if we get two more hurricanes this season. In that case, Eric would win unchallenged with a score of six, and Grant would be second with a score of five. While I still think it unlikely that we get two more, it is certainly possible. A storm organized itself today off the coast of Central America (tropical depression seventeen). Will that turn into the season's eighth hurricane? Stay tuned to find out!
The U.S. is way down at #18 on the democracy list. How embarrassing. Apparently it should be Sweden or one of the other top 10 or so spreading democracy around.
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