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Prognostication quiz: Bonus Post

Yesterday I was bored for a bit at work and decided to update the "expectation" fields of the prognostication quiz from the method I used before (where the entrants in the quiz predicted which answers were more likely to win) to the real world's predictions of events. I found betting odds for the three remaining major league sporting questions, as well as prediction markets for the presidential election. I left the previous system in place for the remaining questions.

In the old system of predicting, I led the pack at the start of the contest (along with Laura). In the new system and three questions in, I am second from dead last! My predicted final score is 1.58. Only my darling wife is worse off than I am at this point, with a predicted final score of 1.13.

At the top of the pack right now is Sandy, with a predicted score of 3.92. That's a fun fact because it's her birthday today. I'm sure that nothing she might receive for her birthday is more exciting or thrilling than knowing she tops the predicted leaderboard.

Following closely behind are Matthew B. (3.91), Rob (3.48), Grant (3.38), Jeff (3.30), Liz (3.26), Ryan (3.13), Jodene (3.11), and Ekrem (3.04). Next up are the Stanley Cup finals, which start tonight. Liz and Grant are among the 8 people who picked Detroit to win. Sandy, Jeff, and Ekrem are among the 6 people who picked Pittsburgh to win (by picking "another Eastern Conference team"). The rest of us sad sacks picked teams that have been eliminated already.

Stay tuned! We'll know the answer in a week or two!

Comments

  1. MT2:54 PM

    Woo hoo! Detroit Red Wings are victorious, meaning a big leap in my status in your quiz! (Take that, Jeffrey.)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous8:07 PM

    Did I mention I RULE! Happy birthday to me!

    ReplyDelete

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