Skip to main content

Prognostication quiz: Bonus Post

Yesterday I was bored for a bit at work and decided to update the "expectation" fields of the prognostication quiz from the method I used before (where the entrants in the quiz predicted which answers were more likely to win) to the real world's predictions of events. I found betting odds for the three remaining major league sporting questions, as well as prediction markets for the presidential election. I left the previous system in place for the remaining questions.

In the old system of predicting, I led the pack at the start of the contest (along with Laura). In the new system and three questions in, I am second from dead last! My predicted final score is 1.58. Only my darling wife is worse off than I am at this point, with a predicted final score of 1.13.

At the top of the pack right now is Sandy, with a predicted score of 3.92. That's a fun fact because it's her birthday today. I'm sure that nothing she might receive for her birthday is more exciting or thrilling than knowing she tops the predicted leaderboard.

Following closely behind are Matthew B. (3.91), Rob (3.48), Grant (3.38), Jeff (3.30), Liz (3.26), Ryan (3.13), Jodene (3.11), and Ekrem (3.04). Next up are the Stanley Cup finals, which start tonight. Liz and Grant are among the 8 people who picked Detroit to win. Sandy, Jeff, and Ekrem are among the 6 people who picked Pittsburgh to win (by picking "another Eastern Conference team"). The rest of us sad sacks picked teams that have been eliminated already.

Stay tuned! We'll know the answer in a week or two!

Comments

  1. MT2:54 PM

    Woo hoo! Detroit Red Wings are victorious, meaning a big leap in my status in your quiz! (Take that, Jeffrey.)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous8:07 PM

    Did I mention I RULE! Happy birthday to me!

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Can You Cross Your Toes?

Katie and I had a heated discussion the night before last. We were sitting on the couch watching Jon Stewart when she noticed a large, apparently cancerous growth sticking out of the bottom of my foot. She asked what the big lump in my sock was. "That's my toe," I responded, nonplussed. I had crossed my first and second toes, causing a lump to protrude from the bottom of my sock. Katie was quite alarmed. "You can cross your toes?" "Sure, can't you? Everyone can cross their toes!" "Of course I can't cross my toes. Who can cross their toes?" And I confirmed that Katie could not, in fact, cross her toes. Even manipulating her toes with my fingers, I could not get her toes to stay crossed. She just has very short toes. That led, of course, into a discussion of who was the freak. Were my long, crossable toes abnormal, or were her stubby, uncrossable phalanges the outliers? In case you're confused, here are some pictures. First, of my v...
35 comments
Read more

Leagalize drugs!

The Economist has a wonderful editorial this week about legalizing drugs. I wholeheartedly agree that the world will be better off by far if the United States legalized, taxed, and regulated illicit drugs such as cannabis, cocaine, and heroin. The goods that will come from legalization: 1. We will save the $40 billion the US spends trying to eliminate the supply of drugs. 2. We will save the costs involved in incarcerating so many drug offenders (as well as gain their productivity in society). 3. We will gain money through taxation on the legal drug trade. 4. Legalized drugs will be regulated, and thus purer and safer to take. 5. With all these savings, we will have lots of money to spend on treating drug addiction as a public health issue rather than as a law and order issue. We will have lots of money to fund treatment programs for addicts that are ensnared by the easier availability of drugs. 6. We will prevent tens of thousands of killings in countries that produce drugs when proc...
10 comments
Read more

Max the Model

Katie sometimes talks to Max about all the things he can grow up to be. "Will you grow up to be a scientist like Daddy, or a lawyer like Mommy?" she will query. In recent days, though, we think Max might aspire to be a model. He LOVES the camera. Point it in his direction, and he is mesmerized by the big lens, giving it a big smile. He will sit for long series of photographs, changing his expressions constantly so we'll be sure to get a good one. This is Katie's recent favorite series (mostly because she thinks he looks so cute in the outfit): This is my favorite series, based purely on the dynamic range of emotions that Max is capable of. I am especially fond of the last picture. So cute!
9 comments
Read more