J. Michael Andresen

8. Yachts (September) The oldest active trophy in international sport is up for grabs this year with the 34th running of the America's Cup. The challenging Royal Swedish Yacht Club will take on the defending Golden Gate Yacht Club. Who will win the America's Cup? a. The Golden Gate Yacht Club b. The Royal Swedish Yacht Club The Americans kept the America's Cup this year, and the answer to Question 8 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is A. The Golden Gate Yacht Club of Larry Ellison's Team Oracle. I made some mistakes in my phrasing of the question due to my naivete regarding the event. Although the Royal Swedish Yacht Club was listed as the "challenger of record," the actual challenger is chosen by an initial competition (the Louis Vuitton Cup). Emirates Team New Zealand bested the Royal Swedish Yacht Club and the Sicily Circle of Sailing to earn the right to take on the Golden Gate Yacht Club. Since the Americans won, this mistake had no ...

7. Horses (May 4) The 139th running of the Kentucky Derby will have America's finest three-year-old thoroughbred horses challenge each other in the annual Race for the Roses. Working from a list of over three hundred aspiring entrants, I have split the horses into approximately equal groups. This takes into account horse naming psychology, which seems to lean toward S names. What letter will the Kentucky Derby winner's name start with? a. A or B b. C or D c. E, F, or G d. H, I, J, K, or L e. M, N, or O f. P, Q, or R g. S h. T, U, V, W, X, Y, or Z Orb, Goldencents, and Verrazano were the favorites going into the Kentucky Derby. Orb started out near the back of the pack in sloppy track conditions, but came out on top with a time of 2:02.89 to win a purse of $1,414,800. In case you're slow with the math, that's $11,512.73 per second of racing. Golden Soul finished second and Revolutionary came in third. Orb's win means that the answer to Question 7...

6. Writing Fourteen of the 21 Pulitzer Prizes are awarded for journalism. Some awards are given to the newspaper as a whole and some are given to individual reporters, but the newspaper is always mentioned. If an award is shared, both newspapers are considered to be named. The winners of the past 12 years are listed (ties are possible). Which newspaper will win the most Pulitzers? a. The Washington Post (4) b. The New York Times (5) c. The Wall Street Journal (3) d. The Los Angeles Times (4) e. another news organization will be named the most times (0) The New York Times has continued its recent dominance in the Pulitzer Prize category of the Prognostication Quiz. It won four Pulitzers this year, most notably for shaming the sketchy overseas business practices of Apple and Wal-Mart and the hidden wealth of the Chinese Premier's family. The New York Times won five Pulitzers in 2009, seven in 2002, and otherwise no more than three. The answer to Question 6 of the 201...

4. Film (February 24) Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year at the Academy Awards?  What will win the Oscar for Best Picture? a. Lincoln b. Zero Dark Thirty c. Les Miserables d. Argo e. none of the above: some other film will win Lincoln was the early favorite and strengthened its lead when Argo director Ben Affleck was snubbed by the Academy in the directing category. But Argo won prize after prize in the award season run-up to the Academy Awards, and in the end it won the Oscar for best picture. The answer to Question 4 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is D. Only three people guessed Argo , and they deserve much credit for seeing so much promise in the underdog film. The Argonauts Jan Chris C. Keila 5. Kenya (March 4) In 2007, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki lost an election to Raila Odinga, but refused to step down. Violent riots ensued, and a power sharing agreement was eventually reached with Odinga taking the newl...

2. Groundhog (February 2) Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. (He has declined repeated invitations to join the Prognostication Quiz.) On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each (since 1887) is indicated in parentheses. What will Punxatawney Phil see? a. His shadow (100) b. No shadow (15) Punxatawney Phil looked around earlier this month and saw no trace of shadow, indicating that we will have an early spring. That means the answer to Question 2 in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is B. Ten of the 46 entrants (22%) correctly guessed that we were going to have an early winter this year. This is much higher than the 13% rate at which Phil has predicted an early spring since 1887. Did these folk check if human prognosticators predicted an early spring? No, the Farmer's...

1. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2012 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2011. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2012? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. Note: the ten worst "free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Antigua and Barbuda, Botswana, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Montenegro, and Peru. The fifteen best "partly free" countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Ecuador, Lesotho, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay, Philippines, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Tonga, and Turkey. How will the number of free coun...

12. Stocks (December) What will be the year-end close for the Dow? a. under 10,800 b. 10,800 to 11,600 c. 11,600 to 12,400 d. 12,400 to 13,200 e. 13,200 to 14,000 f. greater than 14,000 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (shown above over the last five trading days of 2012) ended the year at 13,104, an increase of 7.3% over the year. This means that the answer to Question 12 on the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is D .  The last winners of the year: Keila, Megan, Cameron, Grant, Stacey, Gloria, Ben, Todd, Ekrem, Adrian, Zoe, Chris C., Janet, Jason, Ryan, Michael, Leanne, Jeff, Beth, Rachel, Eric, Jan, Craig, Hannah, Liz, Dave, Paul, Ted, Zhiqi, Missy, and Larry. Leader Board It was a close one! On the last day of trading, the Dow dipped briefly into Cameron's territory before hovering most of the day in Megan's territory (see the colored bar beneath the Dow Jones graph). Only at the very end of the day, after the outlines of a fiscal cliff deal had been reached, did...