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2013 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 2 and 3, Groundhog and Football

2. Groundhog (February 2)

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. (He has declined repeated invitations to join the Prognostication Quiz.) On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each (since 1887) is indicated in parentheses.

 What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (100)
b. No shadow (15)


Punxatawney Phil looked around earlier this month and saw no trace of shadow, indicating that we will have an early spring. That means the answer to Question 2 in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is B.

Ten of the 46 entrants (22%) correctly guessed that we were going to have an early winter this year. This is much higher than the 13% rate at which Phil has predicted an early spring since 1887. Did these folk check if human prognosticators predicted an early spring? No, the Farmer's Almanac predicts a full winter with no early spring. Did they notice a discontinuity in Phil's predictions that I had missed?

Before World War II, Phil predicted early spring 8% of the time. Over the next 30 years, Phil predicted early spring 12% of the time. Over the past 30 years, Phil has predicted early spring a full 30% of the time. Phil keeps with the times, I guess, and provides one more piece of independent evidence demonstrating the process of global warming.

I usually try to give a sense of the probabilities of each answer occurring to those Quiz entrants who do not have time or inclination to do their own research, but I am certainly fallible. Kudos to the winners on this question if they figured out that B was a better bet because I was encouraging too many people to guess A.

The Weather Optimists
Chris M.
Liz
Cameron
Ron
Valerie
Tina
Larry
Melissa
Miriam
Katie

Everyone on this list is surely excited that they scored a point, with the one possible exception of Missy. This year, Missy set herself the challenge of trying to get the low score for the year. She picked the underdog throughout, including what is perhaps her boldest prediction, writing in your humble correspondent for her prediction to win the Nobel Peace Prize. More on that later in the year.

3. Football (February 3)

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all or will an upstart prevail? (Regular season wins and losses are indicated.)

 Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (Denver Broncos, 13-3)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (Atlanta Falcons, 13-3)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (New England Patriots, 12-4)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (San Francisco 49ers, 11-4-1)
e. another AFC team (Texans, Ravens, Colts, Bengals)
f. another NFC team (Packers, Redskins, Seahawks, Vikings)

The wild card Ravens pulled off three upsets in a row in the playoffs to win the Super Bowl this year. Most Valuable Player Joe Flacco (pictured) led a methodical attack against the heavily favored 49ers team. That's not a bad way for a quarterback to finish off his contract year. Baltimore (or someone else) will have to pay him some ridiculous quantity of cash for his services next year.

11 people (myself included) thought the Packers looked pretty good and picked F to have a second team in the running. Ten, seven, twelve, and four people, respectively, picked top seeds A, B, C, and D. Kudos, then, to the single, solitary person crazy enough to find the winning answer of E. another AFC team.

The Edgar Allen Poe fanatic
Pete C.

Leaderboard

A hearty congratulations to Chris M., who maintains his lead over everyone with his correct prognostication of Phil's prognostication. Top-of-the-leaderboard newbie Liz and perennial powerhouse Cameron move into second place along with Super Bowl maven Pete C., no stranger to the upper echelon of the leaderboard himself.

3    Chris M.
2    Liz
2    Pete C.
2    Cameron
1    Janet
1    Dave
1    Ron
1    Ellen
1    Grant
1    Valerie
1    Tina
1    Larry
1    Melissa
1    Mary
1    Miriam
1    Katie
0    Sarah T.
0    Jeff
0    Marcus
0    Ryan C.
0    Rachel
0    Russell
0    Matthew
0    Jan
0    Stephanie
0    Ben
0    Todd
0    Megan
0    Peter B.
0    Ryan M.
0    Adrian
0    Zhiqi
0    Sarah M.
0    Chris C.
0    Collette
0    Keila
0    Eric
0    Nadir
0    Gloria
0    Leanne
0    Paul
0    Michael
0    Stacey
0    Rachel
0    Ekrem

Question 4 Update

What will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
a. Lincoln
b. Zero Dark Thirty
c. Les Miserables
d. Argo
e. none of the above: some other film will win
Lincoln was the bettor's favorite through late January, but since then, Argo has seriously taken off. Intrade.com now gives Argo an 85% chance of winning, with Lincoln down to 12%.

Chris M. and Cameron both picked the dark horse, E. none of the above this year. Liz and Pete C. both picked A. Lincoln. No one with 1, 2, or 3 points picked Argo. If Lincoln wins, then, we will have a three-way tie at the top, but if Argo prevails the status quo will prevail and Chris M. will reign on his own for another question.

Comments

  1. MT9:20 AM

    yipeeee!!! Thanks for posting this fun update, JMA.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Larry4:42 PM

    How did you not point out that your father, Larry, has tied his total of last year?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Tina2:20 PM

    My strategy for picking the groundhog was this: I never do well on your stupid quiz. I figured that I might be the only person to pick B on Q2, so there was a chance, however small, for me to enjoy the top of the leaderboard for a small amount of time.

    The fact that so many of my family members also picked B would probably make for a good scientific study on the genetic components of going for the lesser likely option. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. J. Michael Andresen11:56 AM

    Genetic analyses will be aided by the fact that I never even considered B. I picked different underdog positions later in the year which almost certainly will not come through.

    ReplyDelete

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