J. Michael Andresen

1. Quiz What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz? Here are this year's answers, with last year's answers in parentheses: a. 11 (7) b. 8 (4) c. 7 (8) d. 13 (7) e. 4 (15) f. 8 (10) The answer to the kick-off question of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz is E . Only four people chose it out of the 51 entrants we have this year. The E Street Band : Ellen Keila Grant Kevin People avoided last year's most popular answer, making reverse psychology the big winner over reverse-reverse psychology. (Recall that straight up psychology may have led to the popular choice of E last year .) None of the four winners had a compelling explanation for why E might have worked better than the rest. Ellen's strategy was to pick her initials E and A for all the questions, and she followed a hunch about E here. Grant utilized optimal game theory strategy and used a random number generator to select the correct answer. Keila and Kevin perhaps deserve ...

Entry deadline is 3:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, January 14, 2012 . Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com. Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter! 1. Quiz (January) A repeat of last year’s Question 1 with the added twist that we now know last year’s answers. Will reverse psychology prevail, or reverse-reverse psychology? The number of votes each answer received last year is in parentheses. What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2012 Prognostication Quiz? a. A (7) b. B (4) c. C (8) d. D (7) e. E (15) f. F (10) 2. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2011 report calculated that 87 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2010, down two from the previous year. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2011? The number of times eac...

The Final Question 12. Stocks What will be the year-end close for the Dow? a. under 10,500 b. 10,500 to 11,000 c. 11,000 to 11,500 d. 11,500 to 12,000 e. 12,000 to 12,500 f. greater than 12,500 The Dow Jones index finished at 12,217.56, bringing to a close the 2011 Prognostication Quiz with a final answer of E. 12,000 to 12,500. This was the most popular answer, and mimics the long-term trend in the Dow Jones index. I hope everyone borrowed heavily and invested in stocks this year. The E people: Russell Jo Cameron M. Dave Ekrem Michael Kevin Claire&Craig Rachel F. Grant Beth Rachel H. Tina Ellen Zhiqi Janet Eric Peter B. Chris C. Nadir Leader Board The point for Russell pulls him into a tie with Marcus for first place with seven points. After the tie-breaker, however, Marcus wins by a neck. Here is the final listing with the tie-break incorporated: 1. Marcus (7) 2. Russell (7) 3. Jo (6) 4. Cameron M. (5) 5. Dave (5) 6. Ryan (5) 7. Paul (5) 8. Megan (5) 9. Adrian (5) 10. Stacey (5)...

The elder statesman of the the 2011 Prognostication Quiz has passed on. Colonel Potter of M*A*S*H retires to the great Korean war in the sky. That makes A. Harry Morgan a correct answer on Question 13-15 of the quiz. The Ageists Marcus Russell Megan Paul Stacey Cameron M. Dave Zoe Katie Rachel F. Todd Beth Tina Leanne Ted Larry Missy Leaderboard This death has a profound effect on the leaderboard. What was a four-way race just two weeks ago has been winnowed down to two. Russell will pull even with Marcus and best him in the tiebreaker if the Dow ends the year between 12,361.5 and 12,499.99. Otherwise, Marcus wins. The Dow has not been higher than 12,200 since late July, but some good news from Congress or Europe could easily set it rising in the last two weeks of the year. If Zsa-zsa Gabor (in and out of the hospital all year) finally buys the farm, Russell would expand his winning range and win if the Dow finished anywhere above 12,000. Megan, Paul, Adrian, and Stacey are all dark...

Question 10. Storms Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were twelve hurricanes in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, nine in 2004, and seven in 2003. Will we beat the recent average of 7 hurricanes (over the last 12 years)? How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season? a. 3 or less b. 4-5 c. 6-7 d. 8-9 e. 10-12 f. 13 or more Kudos to those who thought we would exactly match the recent average of seven hurricanes. There were precisely seven Atlantic storms that made it to hurricane strength this year. This means the answer to Question 10 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is C. 6-7. The 7 Winners Irene Katia Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Those who predicted the 7 winners Russell Ryan Stacey Lorraine Ron Collette Gloria Beth Question 13-15. Death One more death to tick off: r. Andy Rooney, 60 Minutes Journalist (92) Rooney was one of the media's great workaholics. He died just f...

Question 9. Peace (October) For the past 21 years, the Nobel Committee has formatted its press announcement for the Peace Prize to include a brief description of why the prize was awarded. What key word will be used to announce the Nobel Peace Prize? a. “Democracy” (5) b. “Rights” (6) c. Any specific geographical region (6) d. “International” (5) e. “Peaceful” (6) f. None of the above (4) Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkul Karman win this year's Nobel Peace Prize "for their nonviolent struggle for the safety of women and for women's rights to full participation in peace-building work." This makes the answer to Question 9 in the 2011 Prognostication Quiz is B. Rights. Kudos to the eleven who lean a bit to the right: Adrian Megan Valerie Jan Jeff Claire&Craig Cameron M. Rich Eric Sarah Keila That's two years in a row the Peace Prize has gone for rights. (Last year Liu Xiaobo won it for his struggles for human rights in China.) That makes it suc...

By popular demand (viz. Leanne) here are a bunch of cute baby pictures. Prepare for the happy! 0.2 months: Sorry I'm a little yellow. The bilirubin was still on its way out. 0.3 months: Maxwell is very gentle holding my hand. 0.5 months: Don't you wish you could still get away with sleeping 20 hours a day? 0.8 months: Not sure why I don't get to wear bright colors. 0.8 months: Daddy drills me every day on my penmanship. 1.0 months: Daddy doesn't look as tired as he is feeling. 1.0 months: Posing for the camera. 1.4 months: Maxwell likes to give me hugs. 1.5 months: I'm a little grumpy today. 1.7 months: Family photo. Maxwell taught me how not to look at the camera. 2.0 months: I love how the Minnesota grass has been so green for my entire life. 2.2 months: Bathtime with Mommy. 2.4 months: Hanging out in the vibrating bouncy chair. 2.7 months: Maxwell orchestrates a brother-brother nap in the living room.