J. Michael Andresen

Question #2: Freedom How will the number of free countries change? (Total who answered each is in parentheses.) a. minus two or worse, 87 or fewer total (6) b. minus one, 88 total (13) c. no change, 89 total (12) d. plus one, 90 total (13) e. plus two or three, 91-92 total (4) f. plus four or more, 93 or more total (3) The number crunchers over at Freedom House tell us it has been a bad year for freedom again this year. A total of 25 countries saw a decline in freedom level compared to 11 countries that improved. Included in the declining countries are Mexico and Ukraine. They were "free" in 2009, but were only "partly free" last year. That means that the total number of free countries decreased by two, leaving just 87 free countries in the world and making a. minus two or worse the answer to Question #2 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz . Ukraine suffered due to the maneuvers of President Viktor Yanukovych to crack down on the press, rig elections, and politicize...

Here again is Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz , with the number of times each answer was chosen in parentheses (also see pie chart above): What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz? a. A (7) b. B (4) c. C (8) d. D (7) e. E (15) f. F (10) The winning answer is therefore b. B . Congratulations to Marcus, Russell, Paul, and Ekrem for outsmarting the field on that one. Marcus was influenced by a key game theory scene from a popular historical dramatic film: "I rolled a six sided die for this one: I decided a 1 in 6 chance was better than trying to follow any set of logical instincts, in the theory that more than 1 in 6 of my friends might think like I do. After all, they've all seen the Princess Bride too." This is a useful approach, since it eliminates any undue sway of underlying psychology and gives a true one-in-six chance at hitting pay dirt. Russell plunged in and dared to guess at the underlying psychology in ord...

Question 12: Stocks The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year at 11,577.51. We started the year at 10,428, so the Dow has gained 11% as the economy has clawed its way out of recession. That means that the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is over. The answer to Question 12 (What will be the year-end close for the Dow?) is F. Greater than 11,500 . The Super-Bulls: Ryan Gloria Marcus Ellen Grant Cherie Rachel F. Jeff Peter Ellen was the closest of all with her tie-break prediction that the Dow would end at 11,543 (off by 34.5 points). Rachel F. was second with her guess of 11,521 (off by 56.5 points). On the other end of the spectrum, Janette visualized a doomsday scenario where all thirty components of the Dow simultaneously went belly-up on December 31, plunging the index to zero. Either that or she just forgot to submit a tie-break answer. Ryan correctly predicted that the Dow would have a banner year. With his correct stocks prediction, Ryan joins Ron again at the top of the leader b...

Entry deadline is 11 p.m. CST on January 10, 2011 . Send fifteen answers and one tie-break to jmandresen at gmail.com. Anyone with an email address is welcome to enter! 1. Quiz (January) Now in its fourth year, the annual Prognostication Quiz has grown to be an international phenomenon. We'll get the Quiz off to its most rapid start yet with some group psychology. What will be the least popular answer to Question 1 of the 2011 Prognostication Quiz? a. A b. B c. C d. D e. E f. F 2. Freedom (January) Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many of countries are free, partly free, or not free. The 2010 report calculated that 89 of the world’s 193 nations were “free” in 2009. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2010? The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses. How will the number of free c...

The winner of Question #11 in the 2010 Prognostication Quiz is D. Southeast (FL, GA, NC, MO, TN, LA) . That region has clinched the win for Question 11 despite the handful of games remaining. As of right now, here is the final tally of overall wins for each region in the stupidest question of this year's quiz: 937 D. Southeast 846 F. Heartland 821 E. West 812 B. Pacific 770 C. Northeast 759 A. Great White North It was a bad year for us up here in the Great White North, it seems. The highest people up the leader board to guess the Southeast were Grant's parents, Valerie and Cameron, who were at 3 points at the last post. I am suspicious there might have been some collusion in answering, since Grant himself chose the Southeast. The only other entrant to guess that was Ben. Kudos to those four to figuring that one out, and for demonstrating that sports prognostication may have a genetic component. We also had another unfortunate passing. Bob Feller, hall-of-fame pitcher for the C...

Question 9 In the spirit of the twelve days of Christmas, ended with twelve Atlantic hurricanes this year, making the correct answer E. 10 to 12 to Question 9 in the 2010 Prognostication Quiz . Only three people predicted this: Ron Kevin Pamela True, it was an El Nino year, but many climate scientists (including Quiz entrant Marcus, who predicted C. 6 to 7 ) thought that other prevailing factors would keep the total number of hurricanes down. Kudos to the three who predicted otherwise. Kevin and Pamela are having rather forgettable performances in this year's quiz, but Ron has catapulted himself back into the lead with his bold prediction. Question 10 The Republican caucus gained 63 seats in the house and 6 seats in the Senate, making A. 40 or more seats the answer to Question 10 in 2010 Prognostication Quiz Only a measly two people correctly predicted the scale of the GOP drubbing. One of them was my father Larry, one of our nation's most strident Republicans. The other was ...

It was so frustrating to see interesting things from across the room and not be able to climb beneath/over/into them. I'm old enough now that I can scamper all over the house and get into anything I want to. One of my favorites is a giant jug that we use for firewood when I'm not sitting inside. My mother thinks I am very cute. (I guess I think so, too.) She likes it when I pose for pictures, so I appease her when I can. This one I rather enjoyed. I draw the line at ugly Christmas sweaters, though. My favorite thing of all is reading books, though. I have maybe 100 books at home and I try to have each one read to me every day. Sometimes I even ask for my favorites to be read twice! Or three times! Or more! It's a good thing I AM so cute!