8. Nobels
There are six Nobel Prizes: Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, Peace, and Economic Sciences. They can each be awarded to as many as three people, so it is pretty special when a Nobel Prize is given to a single individual (with the exception of the Literature Prize, which is usually awarded to a single individual). How often will that happen this year? (The total number of times each has happened this millennium is indicated.)
How many Nobel prizes will be awarded to a single individual?
a. One (4)
b. Two (9)
c. Three (3)
d. Zero, Four, Five, or Six (0)
The Nobel Prize in Literature went to Kazuo Ishiguro, and the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel went to Richard Thaler (above). This means the answer to Question 8 of the 2017 Prognostication Quiz is B.
In rough proportion to the historical expectation, 13 entrants chose A, 23 chose B, and 2 chose C.
Sveriges Riksbankers
12. SCOTUS (December 31)
Who will President Trump nominate to the Supreme Court of the United States in 2017? And will they get through confirmation hearings in the Senate? (The likelihood probabilities in parentheses are from PredictIt.org.)
Who will join the Supreme Court?
a. William H. Pryor, Jr. (23%)
b. Diane Skyes (17%)
c. Ted Cruz (9%)
d. Raymond Kethledge (6%)
e. Neil Gorsuch (6%)
f. Don Willett (5%)
g. Thomas Lee (5%)
h. Joan Larsen (5%)
i. someone else
j. no one will join the Supreme Court in 2017
I am not sure how I missed this question in my previous blog entries. Neil Gorsuch was confirmed to the Supreme Court on April 7, six-and-a-half months ago. I'm not sure why I forgot to report that the answer to Question 12 of the 2017 Prognostication Quiz is E. I suppose I may have had some shred of doubt, in that someone else might still be joining the court this year. This would allow more Quiz entrants to get points unless someone else who also happens to be named Neil Gorsuch wins the second seat. Regardless, I should have given the results for this one earlier. Mea culpa.
Grant M. won Question 12 on his own, as he was the only one to correctly indicate that Neil Gorsuch would win Trump's favor. "I expect Trump to make his pick based on how august a haircut the prospective justice has," wrote Grant M., "which I think narrows it to Pryor, Gorsuch, or Hardiman." Grant M. also eschewed the prediction market I used to determine the probabilities above: "Gorsuch is currently leading on FantasySCOTUS, which has the . . . advantage of being a site favored by law experts."
Most people picked front-runners A (12), B (9), or copped out with "none of the above" (15). Grant M. was one of only six people who picked an underdog. Zachary S. was sure Don Willett would get picked, while Valerie M. was sure that Joan Larsen had it in the bag. Rachel F. and Missy A. thought that the Democrats might follow in Mitch McConnell's footsteps and figure out how to keep the seat vacant for the rest of the year. And finally, Liz K. picked L. Perhaps she will leave a note in the comments telling us who that was supposed to represent.
Leaderboard
Kudos to Grant M. for moving up two spots after brilliantly answering Questions 8 and 12 both correctly. Kudos also to the ten who moved up to remain in the second-place tie, now at 4 points. Condolences to Stuart P., who missed both questions this time and moves into that second-place tie, as well. It's almost Halloween and just 10 days since Friday the 13th, so I will try not to jinx anything by adding any further comments.
Eagle-eyed Quiz readers will have already noticed something odd: we skipped Question 7, Kenya. The Kenyan Presidential election was held on August 8, with incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta winning with a strong 54% of the vote. This was challenged by loser Raila Odinga who charged that many of his votes had been stolen by hackers. The Supreme Court agreed with him and nullified the outcome of the first election. The new election was ordered to be held by October 7. This was delayed to October 17. This was delayed to October 26 (this Thursday). Unfortunately, Odinga has decided to boycott this election. Many suspect his supporters will incite violence at polling places. We will hope for the best and catch up with Kenya next time. Everyone with 3 points or more chose A. Kenyatta for Question 7, so this is unlikely to alter the top of the leaderboard.
After that, next up is Question 9, Storms. As a crazy hurricane season draws to an end on November 30, we are sitting on 10 hurricanes right now. This would make answer D correct, and would give Ben S., Matthew D., Grant M., Cameron M., and Chris C. one point each and allow them stay in second place at one point back. With one or more hurricanes, we would be into answer E. No one with 2 or more points picked E, so again, this will not impact the top of the leaderboard.
Kudos also to Missy A., who stated that she was going for the booby prize this year. She has not disappointed, and remains alone in the basement. Unfortunately, she might get a point on the hurricane question if we have one more hurricane this year. She should have picked the lowest answer rather than the highest answer. However, even if she does get that point, she seems a shoo-in to lose the tie-breaker, as she predicted a plunge in the Dow Jones to close at an even 0 at the end of the year.
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