2016 Prognostication Quiz: Question 4, Film

4. Film (February 28)

Which picture will win American filmdom's highest prize this year? These are the five nominees for the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, which usually contains the best picture for the Academy, as well (although not last year, when Birdman won out over Boyhood et al.)

What will win the Academy Award for Best Picture?

a. Carol
b. Mad Max: Fury Road
c. The Revenant
d. Room
e. Spotlight
f. none of the above: some other film will win

The Academy has voted, and they chose to disregard the fact that most of the early year awards went to The Revenant. They chose instead an old-fashioned tale, about some quaint thing called a "newspaper." This made the correct answer to Question 4 of the 2016 Prognostication Quiz to be E. Spotlight.

This was a hard one to predict this year, with no strong favorite. The most popular answer was actually F, with 17 contestants picking none of the above. After that came C (14 contestants), E (10), A (3) and D (2).

Hogging the Spotlight

Liz K.

Grant M.

Nadir Y.

Michael A.

Stacey C.

Sarah T.

Sarah M.

Matthew D.

Russell V.

Marcus S.

13-15. Death (December 31)
Which of these celebrities will pass on in 2016? You get THREE guesses on this one. Amazingly, A through Y were on last year's quiz and survived to tell about it. Z is the only fresh nonagenarian meat this year. (The 2016 birthdays are indicated. Actuarial tables suggest that a 90-year-old has an 86% chance of surviving the year while a 99-year-old has a 74% chance of seeing 2016. 

Former First Lady Nancy Reagan passed away two weeks ago. She was 94, which made her choice L on the Death question. Four people in the Quiz predicted her passing, though sadly it didn't help any of them all that much since none of them were very high up on the leader board. It was the second point for Rachel H. and only the first point for the rest.

Reagan Revolutionists

Rachel H.

Sarah S.

Ron D.

Ben S.

Leader Board

A massive congratulations to Liz K., who guessed Spotlight for the top Academy Award to maintain her domination of the field. She did not guess Nancy Reagan would pass on, but then neither did either of her immediate followers who also picked Spotlight, Grant M. and Nadir Y. They stayed a point behind the leader, but made a little space ahead of the 9-way tie now in fourth place with 2 points.

Next up is the Pulitzer Prizes. It seems now that the winner of the most Pulitzers will be the New York Times, if only because that is what Liz K. picked, and she is on a wicked roll. Nadir Y. picked the NYT along with Liz K. If the Los Angeles Times wins instead, Grant M. will overtake Nadir Y. to join Liz K. in a two-way tie for first. Pete C., Ellen Y., and Larry A. can advance to a second-place tie if the Washington Post wins, while Tina A. can join the second-place tie if the Wall Street Journal prevails.

Rank	Score	Name
1	4	Liz K.
2	3	Grant M.
3	3	Nadir Y.
4	2	Pete C.
5	2	Tina A.
6	2	Michael A.
7	2	Stacey C.
8	2	Rachel H.
9	2	Sarah T.
10	2	Ellen Y.
11	2	Chris M.
12	2	Larry A.
13	1	Sarah M.
14	1	Ron D.
15	1	Matthew D.
16	1	Russell V.
17	1	Sarah S.
18	1	Dylan S.
19	1	Zhiqi Q.
20	1	Rachel F.
21	1	Stuart P.
22	1	Marcus S.
23	1	Ramy Y.
24	1	Valerie M.
25	1	Gemma D.
26	1	Ben S.
27	1	Cameron M.
28	1	Katie M.
29	1	Dave S.
30	1	Zachary S.
31	0	Miriam S.
32	0	Missy A.
33	0	Jason C.
34	0	Keila B.
35	0	Janet C.
36	0	Chris C.
37	0	Adam K.
38	0	Eric M.
39	0	Stephanie A.
40	0	Collette T.
41	0	Gloria T.
42	0	Jeff C.
43	0	Adrian C.
44	0	Peter B.
45	0	Aidan M.
46	0	John E.

We are down to an Unsweet Sixteen who still have no points. You have not been mathematically eliminated, but it will be hard to catch Liz K. unless you start scoring soon!