2015 Prognostication Quiz: Questions 2 and 3, Football and Groundhog

2. Football

The National Football League's Super Bowl is the most-watched television event each year. Will a top seed win it all this year or will an upstart prevail? Recent history has seen a proliferation of successful upstarts. In the NFL playoffs between 1995 to 2004, #1 seeds won 6 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won 2. In the NFL playoffs from 2005 to 2014, #1 seeds won only 2 Super Bowls, #2 seeds won 2, and lower seeds won an astonishing 6. What will happen this year? Regular season wins and losses are indicated in parentheses.

Who will win the Super Bowl?
a. #1 seed in the AFC (12-4 New England Patriots)
b. #1 seed in the NFC (12-4 Seattle Seahawks)
c. #2 seed in the AFC (12-4 Denver Broncos)
d. #2 seed in the NFC (12-4 Green Bay Packers)
e. another AFC team
f. another NFC team

Lower seeds may have been on a roll going in, but this year's Super Bowl turned out to be a face-off between the two top-seeded teams. The New England Patriots had to come back from 10 points down in the fourth quarter, but they managed to edge the Seattle Seahawks by a final score of 28-24. That means the answer to Question 2 of the 2015 Prognostication Quiz is A. New England Patriots. The 17 entrants (myself included) who were so close to a point for choosing B. The Seattle Seahawks will cry on their biers.

The Patriot Patriots

Stephanie A.

Janet C.

Gloria T.

Marcus S.

Russell V.

Ron D.

Dave S.

Zhiqi Q.

Missy A.

Dawn K.

Megan T.

Peter B.

Cameron M.

Pamela C.

3. Groundhog

Punxatawney Phil is known as the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. On February 2, he emerges from his den and looks about. If he sees his shadow (which he did last year), it means six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, it means an early spring. The number of total times Phil has seen each since the release of the movie Groundhog Day is indicated in parentheses.
What will Punxatawney Phil see?
a. His shadow (15)
b. No shadow (6)

Despite overcast skies in Punxatawney, Phil emerged from his burrow and stated to his handlers that he nevertheless saw his shadow. That means six more weeks of winter, but these clever prognosticators will  have the welcome glow of winning to keep them warm:

Shadow Schadenfreude

Stephanie A.

Janet C.

Gloria T.

Russell V.

Ron D.

Dave S.

Zhiqi Q.

Missy A.

Dawn K.

Megan T.

Peter B.

Michael A.

Valerie M.

Rachel H.

Ellen Y.

Chris C.

Adam K.

Jeff T.

Keila B.

Jan M.

Matthew D.

Sarah M.

Grant M.

Ben S.

Nicole C.

Ekrem S.

Eric M.

Jeff C.

Rachel F.

Kevin K.

Sarah T.

Stacey C.

Chris M.

The Quiz entrants were aligned quite closely with the recent forecasts by Phil: 33 chose A while 11 chose B, a precise 3:1 ratio which is very close to the 15:6 historic ratio. Is everyone choosing the proper game theory strategy and using a random number generator to give a properly weighted selection?

Leaderboard

A hearty congratulations to the trio of Stephanie A., Janet C., and Gloria T., who have each gone 3-for-3 in the first three questions of the year. Just behind them is a 14-way tie for fourth place.

Rank	Score	Name
1	3	Stephanie A.
2	3	Janet C.
3	3	Gloria T.
4	2	Ellen Y.
5	2	Russell V.
6	2	Rachel H.
7	2	Chris C.
8	2	Marcus S.
9	2	Ron D.
10	2	Dave S.
11	2	Zhiqi Q.
12	2	Missy A.
13	2	Dawn K.
14	2	Michael A.
15	2	Valerie M.
16	2	Megan T.
17	2	Peter B.
18	1	Cameron M.
19	1	Adam K.
20	1	Jeff T.
21	1	Keila B.
22	1	Eric M.
23	1	Chris M.
24	1	Stacey C.
25	1	Jeff C.
26	1	Jan M.
27	1	Matthew D.
28	1	Kevin K.
29	1	Rachel F.
30	1	Sarah M.
31	1	Pamela C.
32	1	Grant M.
33	1	Ben S.
34	1	Nicole C.
35	1	Sarah T.
36	1	Ekrem S.
37	1	Mary A.
38	1	Miriam S.
39	0	Nadir Y.
40	0	Larry A.
41	0	Todd C.
42	0	Sarah S.
43	0	Jason C.
44	0	Jenny A.

Oh, what a difference a month makes. Jenny A. and Larry A. were so used to being at the top of the leaderboard toward the end of 2014 but have gone a depressing 0-for-3 in the first three questions of 2015. At least they have some company in Nadir Y., Todd C., newcomer Sarah S., and Jason C.

Question 4 Update

The election in Nigeria has been postponed six weeks due to the problems in the North with Boko Haram. This is the maximum length still allowed by the constitution, and probably makes the prospect of an indefinite postponement more likely. These are the people who suspected this might happen (including Mary A., who said so specifically):

Rachel H.

Valerie M.

Rachel F.

Ekrem S.

Cameron M.

Pamela C.

Mary A.

Jason C.

On the top of the leaderboard, Stephanie A. and Gloria T. picked frontrunner A. Goodluck Jonathan, while Janet C. picked B. Muhammadu Buhari, who claims to be gaining in support according to his own internal polls (which is the real reason, he claims, behind the election postponement). It could yet get messy in Nigeria.

Question 5 Update

The Directors Guild Awards and the Critics' Choice Awards were this weekend, and the results were disappointing for Academy Award Best Picture frontrunner Boyhood. Upstart Birdman won the top Directors Guild Award and seven Critics' Choice Awards to Boyhood's seven (though Boyhood did take the top Critics' Choice Award). This indication of how Hollywood cognoscenti are thinking about the year's best movie has greatly increases the chances of Birdman winning the Academy Award for Best Picture. This would be a huge upset and would mean "none of the above" for Question 5. These four stand to benefit, including (impressively) Gloria T., who could claim the top of the leaderboard to herself if Birdman wins:

Gloria T.

Missy A.

Megan T.

Jeff C.

Stephanie A. and Janet C. both picked A. Boyhood, so they would tie for first if the frontrunner succeeds in shrugging off its serious challenger.