2015 Prognostication Quiz: Question 1, Freedom

1. Freedom

Freedom House is an international organization that studies democracy and freedom in the world, publishing an annual report on how many countries it calculates to be free, partly free, or not free. The 2014 report calculated that 88 of the world’s 195 nations were free in 2013. Will freedom advance, stay stagnant, or retreat in this year’s report, covering 2014? Note: the nine worst free countries (with the highest likelihood of being downgraded) are Botswana, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana, India, Jamaica, Lesotho, Montenegro, and Peru. The sixteen best partly free countries (with the highest likelihood of being upgraded) are Albania, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Georgia, Indonesia, Macedonia, Mexico, Moldova, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Philippines, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania. The number of times each answer has occurred since the fall of the iron curtain is indicated in parentheses.

How will the number of free countries change?
a. minus two or worse (4), 86 or fewer total
b. minus one (4), 87 total
c. no change (6), 88 total
d. plus one (3), 89 total
e. plus two or three (3), 90 - 91 total
f. plus four or more (3), 92 or more total

According to Freedom House, tiny Tunisia advanced to "free"-dom in 2014 while everyone else held steady. The correct answer to the first question of the 2015 Prognostication Quiz is therefore D. Plus one.

I picked D because I figured with 16 countries close to being upgraded and only 9 close to being downgraded, plus one seemed like a good strategy. This was Grant M.'s strategy from 2012 (see the comments). Since 2012, Grant M. has had a strategy of believing the Freedom House ratings have gotten more and more conservative over time. He, therefore, chose C. No change. In the end, it was a lucky success for me: the number of free countries increased by one, but none of the 16 "close" countries were the ones to advance. Instead, Tunisia jumped quite far through the rankings due to its impressive stability after being the vanguard of a turbulent Arab Spring.

Ten other people chose D along with me. First blood! It tastes so sweet.

Another Night in Tunisia

Stephanie A.

Janet C.

Ellen Y.

Rachel H.

Mary A.

Chris C.

Marcus S.

Gloria T.

Michael A.

Valerie M.

Miriam S.

 

 Leader Board

We have 44 entrants this year, down from 52 last year, when the 2014 Prognostication Quiz was required reading for Jeff T.'s English language course in Japan. This year the timing was not as fortuitous, and he was unable to make his students enter this time around. He has submitted his entry, however, and is hoping to improve on his rather lackluster performance from last year.

Fifteen of the 44 entrants felt confident enough in their prognostication to wager a total of $302 on their skill at picking winners and losers.

A word on how ties are broken in the leader board, which is different than how they are broken at the end of the year. Most important are the tie-break points, which are given for being in the right range for the year-end financial questions, 11 and 12. The Dow Jones is at 17,164.95 this weekend, so anyone answering C on Question 11 would get a tie-break point for leader board purposes. Likewise, one Bitcoin is $223 right now, so anyone answering C on Question 12 would also get a tie-break point for the leader board. Subsequent ties are broken by looking at the predictions for the precise closing of the year-end Dow Jones. Whoever is closest to the current value of 17,164.95 will be listed ahead other entrants with identical regular points and tie-break points.


Congratulations to Stephanie A., who ends at the top after the tie-breaking procedure. It's still very early, though, and the 11 who got their first point on the first question should feel proud no matter where they are in the tie-breaking ranking. Ninth is certainly nothing to be embarrassed about.


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Rank	Score	Name
1	1	Stephanie A.
2	1	Janet C.
3	1	Ellen Y.
4	1	Rachel H.
5	1	Mary A.
6	1	Chris C.
7	1	Marcus S.
8	1	Gloria T.
9	1	Michael A.
10	1	Valerie M.
11	1	Miriam S.
12	0	Cameron M.
13	0	Adam K.
14	0	Jason C.
15	0	Jeff T.
16	0	Russell V.
17	0	Keila B.
18	0	Eric M.
19	0	Ron D.
20	0	Nadir Y.
21	0	Chris M.
22	0	Dave S.
23	0	Larry A.
24	0	Zhiqi Q.
25	0	Stacey C.
26	0	Jeff C.
27	0	Jan M.
28	0	Todd C.
29	0	Missy A.
30	0	Matthew D.
31	0	Kevin K.
32	0	Rachel F.
33	0	Dawn K.
34	0	Sarah M.
35	0	Jenny A.
36	0	Pamela C.
37	0	Grant M.
38	0	Megan T.
39	0	Ben S.
40	0	Nicole C.
41	0	Sarah T.
42	0	Peter B.
43	0	Sarah S.
44	0	Ekrem S.

Question 2 and 3 Update

The two #1 seeds will be facing off in the Super Bowl, so kudos to those at the top of the leader board who picked A. New England Patriots (Stephanie, Janet, Marcus, and Gloria) or B. Seattle Seahawks (Mary, Michael, Valerie). Of those seven who are still in the running for a Super Bowl point, five chose A. His shadow (Stephanie, Janet, Gloria, Michael, Valerie) while two chose B. No shadow (Mary, Marcus). If you were paying close attention, you have figured out this means that at least one lucky contestant will be off to a phenomenal 3-for-3 start to the 2015 Prognostication Quiz. Stay tuned to find out who!