2014 Prognostication Quiz: Question 4, Olympics

4. Olympics

An Olympic gold medal is the goal of all of the young athletes competing at the Winter Olympics this February in Sochi, Russia. Canada won the most gold medals in 2010, but it was the host country, which usually gets a boost in medal count. Russia is hoping to prevail this year, but it would have a very long way to come from its low gold medal count in 2010. The Olympic predictor Infostrada, which looks at how individual athletes from each country perform in international trials, predicts Norway will rise to the top this year. The Infostrada gold medal prediction for each country is listed in parentheses, followed by the gold medal count from the 2010 and 2006 Olympics, respectively.

Who will win the most gold medals at the Winter Olympics?
a. Norway (15 predicted in 2014, 9 in 2010, 2 in 2006)
b. United States (14 predicted in 2014, 9 in 2010, 9 in 2006)
c. Canada (11 predicted in 2014, 14 in 2010, 7 in 2006)
d. Germany (6 predicted in 2014, 10 in 2010, 11 in 2006)
e. China (6 predicted in 2014, 6 in 2010, 2 in 2006)
f. Netherlands (6 predicted in 2014, 4 in 2010, 3 in 2006)
g. Switzerland (5 predicted in 2014, 6 in 2010, 5 in 2006)
h. Austria (5 predicted in 2014, 4 in 2010, 9 in 2006)
i. Russia (5 predicted in 2014, 3 in 2010, 8 in 2006)
j. none of the above: another country will win the most gold medals 

The take-home lesson: don't bet against the host country. Russia eked out a victory with 13 gold medals. They also won the most overall medals, with 33. This means the answer to Question 4 of the 2014 Prognostication Quiz is I. Russia.

The competition between Norway and Russia was actually even closer than it appears. On the last day of the Olympics, Russia was leading Norway by one gold medal, 12 to 11. Co-leader Larry A. would have gotten an additional point to take the lead over Nadir Y. if Norway and Russia had finished in a tie. He pointed out bitterly, "Norway men's team biathlon, the most decorated in all of the winter Olympics, had a 20 second lead going into the last man but fell on its sword, missing three straight shots in the final go, allowing Russia to win their 13th gold." Had Norway made one of those three shots, Russia and Norway would have tied with 12 gold medals.

I made a chart of the top twelve gold medal winners (breaking ties with the total medal count):

Country	Gold	All	Athletes	Pop. (M)	GDP ($B)
Russia	13	33	223	144	2015
Norway	11	26	154	5	500
Canada	10	25	220	35	1821
USA	9	28	230	314	15680
Neth.	8	24	41	17	772
Germany	8	19	154	82	3400
Switz.	6	11	163	8	632
Belarus	5	6	26	9	63
Austria	4	17	132	8	400
France	4	15	59	66	2613
Poland	4	6	33	39	490
China	3	9	38	1351	8227

The early leader was Germany, which won its 8 gold medals by the halfway mark and then did nothing the rest of the way. My personal favorite was Belarus, which killed the field in gold medals per unit of GDP. I have the pleasure of working with a Belarusian, and she tells me that the gold medal winners (Darya Domracheva with three biathlon gold medals, Anton Kushnir with two ski jumping gold medals) are already national heroes. (How many Americans have heard of Meryl Davis or Charlie White?)

Congratulations to the four contestants who figured out that Russia would exceed all expectations while Norway and USA faltered. Three-quarters of those are Chinese exchange students in Jeffrey T.'s graduate course. It's now the second point for Xing Yue, who leads their classmates with that score and crawls into a ten-way tie for third place.

The remaining one quarter is Miriam S., our toddler entrant who picked her answers from a Scrabble bag. Well done, Miriam! You've tied your mother and are just a point behind your father.

Russia, With Love
Xing Yue
Zhangying
Miriam S.
Hexiang

Leaderboard

Congratulations to Nadir Y. and Larry A., who remain tied at the top of the leaderboard after Canada and Norway failed to impress in Sochi.

Next up is the Oscars. Nadir will advance to lead on his own if the award goes to C. Gravity, while Larry will likewise advance to lead on his own if  the award goes to A. 12 Years a Slave instead. Janet C. and Ben S. will advance to tie Nadir and Larry if B. Captain Phillips wins instead. Xing Yue will advance to co-leader if D. Philomena wins (unlikely, perhaps, but I. Russia worked out okay). Finally, Grant M. can advance to the top tier if F. None of the Above prevails (i.e., American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, or The Wolf of Wall Street).

Rank	Score	Name
1	3	Nadir Y.
2	3	Larry A.
3	2	Janet C.
4	2	Keila B.
5	2	Grant M.
6	2	Todd C.
7	2	Craig W.
8	2	Ben S.
9	2	Chris C.
10	2	Russell V.
11	2	Xing Yue
12	2	Sarah M.
13	1	Stephanie A.
14	1	Gloria T.
15	1	Dave S.
16	1	Ellen Y.
17	1	Stacey C.
18	1	Rachel F.
19	1	Jason C.
20	1	Jenny A.
21	1	Yue Nan
22	1	Jeff C.
23	1	Valerie M.
24	1	Tori V.
25	1	Cameron M.
26	1	Michael A.
27	1	Collette T.
28	1	Ron D.
29	1	Katie M.
30	1	Matthew D.
31	1	Adam K.
32	1	Sarah T.
33	1	Ryan C.
34	1	Megan T.
35	1	Ryan M.
36	1	Liz K.
37	1	Jan M.
38	1	Jeffrey T.
39	1	Zhangying
40	1	Miriam S.
41	1	Ekrem S.
42	1	Rachel H.
43	1	Hexiang
44	0	Melissa A.
45	0	Adrian C.
46	0	Zhiqi Q.
47	0	Chris M.
48	0	Dawn K.
49	0	Marcus S.
50	0	Xiaoqi
51	0	Bao Bin
52	0	Ling Chen

We are down to the noxious nine who have yet to score a point. Still plenty of time, of course. No need to start sweating too badly just yet. It's got to feel just a little uncomfortable, though.