2013 Prognostication Quiz: Question 10, Storms

10. Storms

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs June 1 to November 30. There were ten hurricanes in 2012, seven hurricanes in 2011, twelve in 2010, three in 2009, eight in 2008, six in 2007, five in 2006, an all-time record fifteen in 2005, and nine in 2004.
 
How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be this season?
a. 4 or less
b. 5-6
c. 7-8
d. 9-10
e. 11-12
f. 13 or more

This was a crazy year for hurricanes. The bigwigs were predicting an above-average year for hurricanes, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicting between 7 and 11 hurricanes this year, well above the recent average. In fact, there were only two storyms made it to hurricane strength (Humberto and Ingrid), and even those barely made it (each only reaching the minimum strength category 1). This makes the answer to Question 10 of the 2013 Prognostication Quiz is A. 4 or less.

Only one person correctly predicted that we would have so few hurricanes. I would normally give kudos to someone who flew in the face of all the expert advice and turned out correct, but in this case, my sister Missy was picking that answer because she was trying to lose the Quiz. So really, she messed up, too, and now has two points on the year, which will make it nearly impossible for her to end up on the bottom. So sad.

13-15. Death

Controversial freedom fighter turned Nobel Peace Prizewinner, the iconic Nelson Mandela passed away last week at the age of 95. He unraveled apartheid while serving as the first democratically elected president of South Africa from 1994 to 1999, rather miraculous after 27 years in prison for his earlier, sometimes violent, anti-government activities.

This means that H. Nelson Mandela is a correct answer for Questions 13 - 15 in the 2013 Prognostication Quiz. Eighteen people chose Mandela.

African National Congresspeople
Chris C.
Jeff
Rachel F.
Russell
Matthew
Ron
Ellen
Adrian
Valerie
Sarah M.
Collette
Gloria
Michael
Cameron
Sarah T.
Ben
Ryan M.
Peter B.

 Leaderboard

Congratulations to Chris C., who joins Liz, Larry, and Pete C. on top of the leaderboard. Chris C. goes all the way to the number 2 spot with his relatively bullish outlook on the stock market tiebreaking question, but sadly for him, Liz was just slightly more bullish and retains her spot at number 1:

4	Liz
4	Chris C.
4	Larry
4	Pete C.
3	Jeff
3	Marcus
3	Rachel F.
3	Russell
3	Matthew
3	Jan
3	Dave
3	Ron
3	Ellen
3	Grant
3	Adrian
3	Valerie
3	Sarah M.
3	Collette
3	Keila
3	Gloria
3	Michael
3	Tina
3	Stacey
3	Mary
3	Cameron
3	Chris M.
2	Sarah T.
2	Janet
2	Stephanie
2	Ben
2	Todd
2	Peter B.
2	Ryan M.
2	Nadir
2	Leanne
2	Paul
2	Melissa
2	Miriam
2	Ekrem
2	Katie
1	Ryan C.
1	Zhiqi
1	Eric
1	Rachel H.
0	Megan

Megan remains sad and alone at the bottom of the quiz. Just three weeks left to score a point! You can do it, Megan! We all believe in you.

 Question 11 Update

Unlike the past two years, the performance of the stock market is unlikely to lead to a photo finish this year. No one anywhere near the top (i.e., with 3 or 4 points) predicted the stock market would rise so far this year. This makes the current leader, Liz, the overwhelming favorite to win the 2013 Prognostication Quiz. She is only vulnerable to a key world event (Question 12) or death (Questions 13 - 15) that would elevate one of the 11 people that are immediately below her on the leaderboard. Chris C., Larry, or Pete C. would win by scoring their fifth point to pass her entirely, while Jeff, Marcus, Rachel F., Russell, Matthew, Jan, Dave, Ron, or Ellen would win by scoring their fourth point to tie her and then beating her with a more bullish tiebreaker. It will be a tense three weeks for Liz. Can she hold on to her lead?